August 19, 2010 - Sink Inching Up In Close Florida Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Crist Leads Three-Way Senate Race

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Apparently bolstered by the civil war for the Republican nomination for Governor in Florida, State Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, the Democrat, is on the plus side of very close races over either Republican candidate, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. She gets 31 percent to State Attorney General Bill McCollum's 29 percent. Sink gets 33 percent to businessman Rick Scott's 29 percent. In either matchup, independent candidate Bud Chiles gets 12 percent and about 20 percent of voters are undecided.

Scott was at 29 percent to Sink's 27 percent in a July 30 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and McCollum had 27 percent to Sink's 26 percent.

In the U.S. Senate race, Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent, leads Republican Marco Rubio 39 - 32 percent, with U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek getting 16 percent, if he wins the Democratic nomination. If Jeff Greene gets the Democratic nod, he gets 15 percent to Crist's 40 percent and Rubio's 32 percent.

President Barack Obama has a split 47 - 47 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 46 - 50 percent approval July 30 and the President's best score in Florida since April.

"Watching television must have been an enjoyable experience for Florida CFO Alex Sink over the last few months, as she watched Attorney General Bill McCollum and Rick Scott tear into each other with attack ads. Although she trailed either GOP competitor by eight or nine points in June, she has been the unintended beneficiary of the heavy volume of negative television ads her potential November opponents launched against each other," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"She has been able to sit back and save her money for the November election, while whoever wins the Republican primary will have substantial work to do healing wounds within his own party and cleaning up his image," Brown added.

Sink's favorability numbers have hardly moved in the last two months, going from 28 - 14 percent favorable on June 9 to 30 - 15 percent favorable today, with 53 percent who don't know enough about her to form an opinion.

"Once the primary is over, the race for Governor will be one to define Alex Sink for the majority of Floridians who don't know enough about her to have an opinion. McCollum, who leads the GOP primary race, has seen his favorable/unfavorable ratio sink from 37 - 29 percent favorable among all registered voters to a negative 33 - 34 percent. Scott's has dropped from 31 - 22 percent favorable in June to a negative 28 - 40 percent today.

"At this point it's not clear whether independent Bud Chiles will be a force in November. His numbers have ticked down since his announcement, but he is getting one in eight votes and that is nothing to sneeze at," said Brown.

In the Senate race against Rubio and Meek, Crist gets 45 percent of the Democrats - more than Meek's 36 percent - and 50 percent of the independent voters. Against Greene, Crist gets 51 percent of the Democrats to Greene's 31 percent, and 48 percent of independent voters.

"Crist is getting more support from Democrats than either Greene or Meek. The key for Crist will be whether he can hold this many Democrats once the party's nomination is settled and keep his half of the independent voters," said Brown.

"Crist's edge in the Senate race is built on the very favorable impression Floridians have of his performance as Governor. They approve 56 - 35 percent of how he is leading the state, an impressive figure at a time when voters in many states seem to be taking out their economic frustrations on their governors," said Brown.

Florida voters disapprove 30 - 22 percent of U.S. Sen. George LeMieux, whose seat Crist is trying to fill, while Sen. Bill Nelson has a 45 - 33 percent approval rating.

From August 11 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,096 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat, Bill McCollum the Republican and Bud Chiles running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Sink                 31%     7%    61%    25%    32%    29%    13%
McCollum             29     63      8     21     34     24     42
Chiles               12      8      9     20     11     13     13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      2      2      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      5      3      5      5      5      6
DK/NA                21     16     17     27     17     26     25
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Sink                 25%    34%    32%    22%    33%
McCollum             35     30     28     28     25
Chiles               10     10     16     11     12
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      3      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      8      3     11      3
DK/NA                24     18     18     26     24
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat, Bill McCollum the Republican and Bud Chiles running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Sink                 31      26      25
McCollum             29      27      33
Chiles               12      14      19
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5       4       3
DK/NA                21      27      19
 
 
2. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat, Rick Scott the Republican and Bud Chiles running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Sink                 33%    10%    63%    26%    32%    33%    16%
Scott                29     63      6     24     34     25     39
Chiles               12      7     13     16     12     12     11
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      1      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      3      4      4      4      4
DK/NA                20     15     14     29     17     23     27
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Sink                 28%    35%    33%    21%    40%
Scott                35     29     31     38     21
Chiles               10     11     18      9      9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      6      2      4      4
DK/NA                21     18     16     26     23
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat, Rick Scott the Republican and Bud Chiles running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Sink                 33      27      26
Scott                29      29      35
Chiles               12      14      13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       3       2
DK/NA                20      26      23
 
 
3. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat, Marco Rubio the Republican and Charlie Crist running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Meek                 16%     1%    36%    10%    12%    19%     8%
Rubio                32     68      6     25     39     25     51
Crist                39     22     45     50     39     40     27
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      2      -      -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      3      3      3      3      3
DK/NA                10      7      8     12      7     12     11
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Meek                 16%    11%    16%     9%    21%
Rubio                35     35     35     40     21
Crist                34     40     36     39     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      6      1      2      2
DK/NA                12      8     12      9      8
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat, Marco Rubio the Republican, and Charlie Crist running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9   Apr 15
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
 
Meek                 16      13      17      24
Rubio                32      33      33      30
Crist                39      39      37      32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       -       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       1       1       1
DK/NA                10      14      11      13
 
 
4. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jeff Greene the Democrat, Marco Rubio the Republican and Charlie Crist running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Greene               15%     4%    31%    10%    13%    17%    13%
Rubio                32     68      5     27     38     26     53
Crist                40     21     51     48     39     42     26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      -      -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      -      3      2      3      2      1
DK/NA                10      6      9     13      8     12      7
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Greene               13%    14%    13%    12%    19%
Rubio                35     32     36     39     22
Crist                35     42     36     40     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      5      2      -      2
DK/NA                15      6     11     10      8
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jeff Greene the Democrat, Marco Rubio the Republican, and Charlie Crist running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Greene               15      17      14
Rubio                32      32      33
Crist                40      37      40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       1       1
DK/NA                10      12      11
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            24%     6%    46%    21%    23%    25%    14%
Unfavorable          25     42     15     21     30     21     35
Hvn't hrd enough     48     50     38     54     44     52     50
REFUSED               3      2      1      4      4      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9   Apr 15  Jan 26  Aug 19  Apr 16
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2009
                                                                     
Favorable            24      17      17      18      18      24      11
Unfavorable          25      17      13       8       8      25       6
Hvn't hrd enough     48      64      69      73      72      48      82
REFUSED               3       2       1       1       1       3       1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of - Jeff Greene favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            18%    14%    24%    18%    17%    20%    20%
Unfavorable          31     35     32     26     33     30     27
Hvn't hrd enough     48     49     41     54     47     49     50
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      3      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Jeff Greene favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            18      20      11
Unfavorable          31      15      11
Hvn't hrd enough     48      64      77
REFUSED               2       2       1
 
 
7. Is your opinion of - Maurice Ferre favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable             7%     6%     8%     8%     7%     7%     4%
Unfavorable           9      8     11      7     10      8     11
Hvn't hrd enough     83     85     79     84     81     84     85
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      2      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Maurice Ferre favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Aug 19  Jun 9
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable             7       8
Unfavorable           9       6
Hvn't hrd enough     83      84
REFUSED               1       2
 
 
8. Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            35%    65%    12%    33%    39%    31%    57%
Unfavorable          28     11     47     26     29     28     14
Hvn't hrd enough     34     24     38     40     29     39     27
REFUSED               2      1      2      1      2      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 36% Apr 2010)
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9   Apr 15  Jan 26  Jun 9   Apr 16
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010*   2009
 
Favorable            35      35      36      36      32      36      10
Unfavorable          28      24      28      22      14      28      11
Hvn't hrd enough     34      38      34      41      53      34      78
REFUSED               2       3       2       1       1       2       2
 
 
9. Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            53%    32%    72%    55%    53%    53%    38%
Unfavorable          33     55     16     28     34     31     46
Hvn't hrd enough     10     11      7     14      9     12     12
REFUSED               4      3      5      3      4      5      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9   Apr 15  Jan 26  Feb 19  Apr 15
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2010
 
Favorable            53      49      52      48      52      68      48
Unfavorable          33      35      33      35      36      21      35
Hvn't hrd enough     10      13      11      13       8       9      13
REFUSED               4       3       3       3       3       3       3
 
 
10. Is your opinion of - Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            33%    49%    16%    34%    33%    32%    41%
Unfavorable          43     35     55     38     45     41     37
Hvn't hrd enough     21     15     22     27     19     23     21
REFUSED               3      1      7      2      4      3      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9   Apr 19  Jan 27  Aug 19  Jul 30
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2010
 
Favorable            33      27      37      38      35      42      27
Unfavorable          43      43      29      18      15      13      43
Hvn't hrd enough     21      26      32      41      48      43      26
REFUSED               3       4       2       2       2       2       4
 
 
11. Is your opinion of - Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            30%    15%    48%    28%    31%    30%    19%
Unfavorable          15     27      7     11     15     14     23
Hvn't hrd enough     53     56     44     59     50     56     57
REFUSED               2      2      1      2      4      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9   Apr 19  Jan 27  Aug 19  Apr 19
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010
                                                                     
Favorable            30      25      28      22      24      30      22
Unfavorable          15      15      14      15       8      15      15
Hvn't hrd enough     53      58      56      61      68      53      61
REFUSED               2       2       2       2       1       2       2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of - Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            28%    48%    11%    27%    30%    25%    33%
Unfavorable          40     31     49     38     37     42     35
Hvn't hrd enough     30     20     36     35     30     31     29
REFUSED               2      1      4      1      2      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            28      29      31
Unfavorable          40      30      22
Hvn't hrd enough     30      38      46
REFUSED               2       2       1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of - Bud Chiles favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            15%     9%    20%    17%    17%    14%    15%
Unfavorable          12     16      7     12     11     12     15
Hvn't hrd enough     70     73     69     69     68     72     66
REFUSED               3      2      3      2      4      2      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bud Chiles favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            15      15      10
Unfavorable          12      10       7
Hvn't hrd enough     70      73      81
REFUSED               3       2       2
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              56%    39%    68%    62%    57%    55%    46%
Disapprove           35     52     24     28     35     34     47
DK/NA                10      9      8     10      8     11      7
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Approve              50%    59%    50%    58%    62%
Disapprove           36     35     41     38     26
DK/NA                14      6      9      4     11
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? (*High approve also 73% Mar 2007)
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS....
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9   Apr 15  Jul 19  Apr 15  Apr 15
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2007*   2010    2010
 
Approve              56      53      57      49      73      49      49
Disapprove           35      37      35      39      11      39      39
DK/NA                10      10       8      12      16      12      12
 
 
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              30%    37%    24%    32%    31%    29%    32%
Disapprove           56     50     58     57     57     54     52
DK/NA                14     13     18     11     12     17     15
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? (*Low Approve also 30% Jul 2010, Jun 2010)
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS...
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9   Apr 19  Sep 23  Aug 19  Aug 19  
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2004    2010*   2010    
                                                                             
Approve              30      30      30      32      51      30      30      
Disapprove           56      54      53      51      34      56      56      
DK/NA                14      17      18      17      15      14      14      
 
 
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              45%    39%    53%    46%    44%    46%    39%
Disapprove           33     45     24     30     42     25     39
DK/NA                22     16     23     24     15     29     23
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS....
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9   Apr 15  Feb 6   Aug 12  Aug 19  
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2007    2004    2010    
                                                                             
Approve              45      46      47      43      54      42      45      
Disapprove           33      30      31      30      18      18      33      
DK/NA                22      24      22      26      28      40      22      
 
 
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George LeMieux is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              22%    32%    16%    21%    28%    17%    26%
Disapprove           30     24     37     29     33     27     27
DK/NA                48     44     47     50     39     56     48
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George LeMieux is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9   Apr 15  Jan 26  Oct 21
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2009
 
Approve              22      21      21      20      21      16
Disapprove           30      25      25      21      21      18
DK/NA                48      54      54      59      58      66
 
 
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill McCollum is handling his job as Florida's Attorney General?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              46%    56%    38%    48%    51%    42%    50%
Disapprove           38     32     44     37     36     40     33
DK/NA                16     12     19     15     13     19     17
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill McCollum is handling his job as Florida's Attorney General?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9   Apr 19  Jan 27  Jan 27  Jul 30
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010
 
Approve              46      43      50      51      56      56      43
Disapprove           38      39      28      25      20      20      39
DK/NA                16      18      22      24      24      24      18
 
 
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alex Sink is handling her job as Florida's chief financial officer?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              45%    38%    58%    43%    48%    43%    42%
Disapprove           25     33     15     29     26     25     28
DK/NA                29     28     27     28     26     32     30
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alex Sink is handling her job as Florida's Chief Financial Officer?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9   Apr 19  Jan 27  Aug 19  Feb 18
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2009
                                                                     
Approve              45      41      42      39      39      45      32
Disapprove           25      23      25      26      22      25      22
DK/NA                29      36      33      35      40      29      46
 
 
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              47%    15%    84%    44%    47%    48%    25%
Disapprove           47     82     12     49     48     47     69
DK/NA                 5      3      4      7      5      6      6
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9   Apr 19  Jan 26  Feb 19  Jun 9
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2010
 
Approve              47      46      40      50      45      64      40
Disapprove           47      50      54      45      49      23      54
DK/NA                 5       4       6       5       6      13       6
 
 
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the federal health care overhaul?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              35%     9%    61%    33%    34%    36%    17%
Disapprove           56     87     26     57     56     56     77
DK/NA                 9      4     13     10     10      8      6
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the federal health care overhaul?
                     Aug 19  Jul 30  Jun 9
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Approve              35      36      34
Disapprove           56      53      56
DK/NA                 9      11      10
 
 
22. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Right thing          43%    63%    27%    42%    48%    39%    55%
Shld't be invl       49     29     67     50     46     53     35
DK/NA                 7      7      6      8      7      8      9