September 30, 2010 - Angry Voters Push Rubio To Top In Florida Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say Republican Most Shares Their Values

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Republican Marco Rubio holds a solid 46 - 33 percent likely voter lead over Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent in the race for Florida's U.S. Senate seat, with Democrat U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek at 18 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Rubio, a former speaker of the Florida House of Representatives and a favorite of the Tea Party movement, is benefitting from strong voter anger at the federal government, likely voters tell the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers. This first likely voter survey in Florida in this election cycle can not be compared with earlier samples of registered voters.

Asked to evaluate their feelings toward the federal government:
  • 48 percent say they are angry;
  • 29 percent say dissatisfied;
  • 19 percent say satisfied;
  • 3 percent say enthusiastic.
"It is no coincidence that Rubio is getting 46 percent of the vote and 48 percent of the electorate is angry at Washington," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Rubio's double-digit lead in the horse race is confirmed by a 53 - 41 percent margin for a senator who will oppose President Barack Obama's policies and a 47 - 38 percent preference that the Republicans rather than the Democrats control the U.S. Senate.

"Not only does Marco Rubio have a double-digit lead in the U.S. Senate race, but more of his supporters say their mind is made up than those backing Gov. Charlie Crist and Congressman Kendrick Meek," said Brown.

"Almost half of Florida's likely voters are angry at the federal government, and Rubio gets 68 percent of these angry voters. Moreover, with only 3 percent of voters undecided, Rubio just needs to hold onto what he's got, while Crist and Meek, especially, have their work cut out for them if they want to pass the leader," Brown added.

"If Gov. Crist winds up losing the race, he may kick himself for giving up his day job in Tallahassee. Even though he gets only 33 percent of the vote in the three-way race for senator, voters still give him a healthy 51 - 43 percent approval rating for his job as governor. Usually, approval for one office translates into support for another, but this is not the typical political year," said Brown. "The biggest imbalance is among Democrats, 72 percent of whom approve of his job performance, but only 46 percent of whom say they will vote for him for the Senate."

Rubio is getting 83 percent of the Republicans, 40 percent of independents and 8 percent of Democrats. Crist gets just 13 percent of Republicans, but 46 percent of Democrats and 45 percent of independents. Meek gets 43 percent of Democrats, but just 12 percent of independent voters and 1 percent of Republicans.

While only 10 percent of Rubio voters say they might change their minds, 29 percent of Crist voters say they might change, as do 38 percent of Meek voters.

"The real threat to Rubio is that somehow the Meek and Crist voters get together and decide to support one of the two," said Brown.

Florida likely voters, by a 49 - 35 percent margin, have a favorable opinion of Rubio. Crist gets a split 45 - 47 percent favorability and Meek gets a negative 29 - 39 percent score.

Rubio fares best when voters are asked who most shares their values, with 44 percent, almost the same number who support his candidacy. Crist's 27 percent "shares your values" mark is below his 33 percent in the horse race. Meek's 20 percent on shared values is statistically the same as his share of the horse race.

From September 23 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,151 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat, Marco Rubio the Republican, and (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Meek, Rubio, or Crist? (This table includes Leaners.)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Meek                 18%     1%    43%    12%    13%    23%     9%
Rubio                46     83      8     40     48     42     69
Crist                33     13     46     45     36     31     21
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      2      3      3      2      4      2
 
                     PartOf        ANGRY WITH
                     TeaPartyQ25   FederalGovQ27
 
Meek                  3%            6%
Rubio                81            68
Crist                13            23
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1             1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -             -
DK/NA                 2             2
 
 
6a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................................
                                                 CAND CHOICE Q6...
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    KM     MR     CC
 
Made up              78%    88%    71%    74%    62%    90%    70%
Might change         22     12     28     25     38     10     29
DK/NA                 -      -      1      -      -      -      1
 
 
7. (If Meek voter) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Meek or against the other candidates? (*subgroups not large enough to report)
                     LIKELY MEEK VOTERS................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    *Rep   Dem    *Ind   Men    Wom    *Evnglcl
 
For Meek             71%           73%           69%    72%
Against other cand   23            20            29     19
DK/NA                 6             7             2      9
 
 
8. (If Rubio voter) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Rubio or against the other candidates? (*subgroup not large enough to report)
                     LIKELY RUBIO VOTERS...............................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    *Dem   Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
For Rubio            84%    86%           82%    84%    85%    85%
Against other cand   13     11            16     13     14     14
DK/NA                 2      2             2      3      1      1
 
 
8a. (If Crist voter) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Crist or against the other candidates? (*subgroups not large enough to report)
                     LIKELY CRIST VOTERS...............................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    *Rep   Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    *Evnglcl
 
For Crist            73%           73%    73%    71%    76%
Against other cand   24            25     23     26     21
DK/NA                 3             2      4      3      3
 
 
9. Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            29%    11%    58%    24%    27%    32%    15%
Unfavorable          39     54     16     42     46     30     47
Hvn't hrd enough     31     32     25     34     26     36     35
REFUSED               1      2      1      1      1      2      2
 
                     PartOf        ANGRY WITH
                     TeaPartyQ25   FederalGovQ27
 
Favorable            10%           16%
Unfavorable          60            54
Hvn't hrd enough     29            29
REFUSED               1             1
 
 
10. Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            49%    83%    13%    45%    50%    47%    71%
Unfavorable          35      6     63     41     39     31     17
Hvn't hrd enough     14     10     22     12     10     20     12
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      1      1
 
                     PartOf        ANGRY WITH
                     TeaPartyQ25   FederalGovQ27
 
Favorable            84%           69%
Unfavorable           9            21
Hvn't hrd enough      7            10
REFUSED               -             1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            45%    21%    67%    50%    44%    45%    31%
Unfavorable          47     70     23     43     50     43     61
Hvn't hrd enough      5      6      5      4      3      7      7
REFUSED               3      3      5      3      3      4      1
 
                     PartOf        ANGRY WITH
                     TeaPartyQ25   FederalGovQ27
 
Favorable            17%           28%
Unfavorable          76            66
Hvn't hrd enough      6             5
REFUSED               1             1
 
 
19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values; Kendrick Meek, Marco Rubio, or Charlie Crist?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Meek                 20%     2%    50%    12%    16%    25%     9%
Rubio                44     80      9     38     49     39     67
Crist                27     12     33     40     29     25     16
NO DIFF(VOL)          2      1      3      1      2      2      2
DK/NA                 6      4      5      8      4      9      6
 
 
20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign; Kendrick Meek, Marco Rubio, or Charlie Crist?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Meek                 18%     2%    41%    12%    15%    20%    10%
Rubio                44     77      9     40     48     39     64
Crist                27     12     37     35     29     25     15
NO DIFF(VOL)          6      6      6      6      5      7      5
DK/NA                 5      3      7      6      3      9      6
 
 
21. Would you like to see the next United States Senator elected from Florida generally support Barack Obama's policies or oppose Barack Obama's policies?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              41%     4%    83%    41%    38%    44%    15%
Oppose               53     91     12     51     56     49     80
DK/NA                 6      5      5      8      6      7      5
 
                     PartOf        ANGRY WITH
                     TeaPartyQ25   FederalGovQ27
 
Support               6%           16%
Oppose               93            80
DK/NA                 1             4
 
 
22. Would you prefer to have the Democrats or the Republicans control the U.S. Senate next year or doesn't it matter to you?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Democrats            38%     2%    86%    32%    36%    39%    16%
Republicans          47     90      6     40     49     43     73
Doesn't matter       12      5      6     23     10     14      9
DK/NA                 4      3      3      4      4      3      2
 
                     ANGRY WITH
                     FederalGovQ27
 
Democrats            16%
Republicans          70
Doesn't matter       11
DK/NA                 3
 
 
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              51%    31%    72%    54%    51%    51%    40%
Disapprove           43     63     24     37     43     42     56
DK/NA                 6      6      4      9      5      7      4
 
 
25. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea party movement or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes                  20%    37%     4%    14%    19%    21%    37%
No                   76     58     91     81     79     71     58
DK/NA                 5      5      4      5      2      7      5
 
 
27. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Enthusiastic,         3%     1%     7%     1%     3%     3%     2%
Satisfied            19      5     39     16     16     23      9
Dissatisfied         29     26     31     31     27     32     29
Angry                48     67     21     51     54     40     60
DK/NA                 2      2      2      1      1      2      0
 
                     PartOf
                     TeaPartyQ25
 
Enthusiastic,         -
Satisfied             6
Dissatisfied         18
Angry                76
DK/NA                 1
 
 
28. Does the way you feel about the way the federal government works make you more likely to vote in this year's election, less like to vote, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
More likely          60%    66%    58%    58%    57%    63%    62%
Less likely           -      -      -      1      -      1      -
Doesn't make diff    38     32     41     41     42     35     37
DK/NA                 1      2      1      -      1      1      -
 
                     ANGRY WITH
                     FederalGovQ27
 
More likely          64%
Less likely           -
Doesn't make diff    35
DK/NA                 -