October 13, 2010 - Rubio Shows Crist His Heels In Florida Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrat Meek A Distant Third

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In the Florida U.S. Senate race, Republican Marco Rubio is running away with a commanding 44 - 30 percent likely voter lead over Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent, with Democrat U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek third with 22 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Today's results are essentially unchanged from a September 30 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, in which Rubio led Crist 46 - 33 percent with Meek getting 18 percent of likely voters.

Florida likely voters disapprove of President Barack Obama's job performance 54 - 43 percent, a slight improvement from October 1 when they disapproved 56 - 40 percent.

"As the clock ticks down to Election Day, there is no evidence that Marco Rubio's lead is narrowing. Anything is possible since there are still three weeks left in the campaign, but it appears Rubio's opponents will need an earth-shaking development to deny him the U.S. Senate seat," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Gov. Charlie Crist's best chance for victory all along required that he outpoll Meek among Democrats and get half the independent vote. He is doing neither."

Rubio is getting 85 percent of the Republican vote, 32 percent of independents and 5 percent of Democrats. Crist, elected governor four years ago on the GOP ticket, is getting 13 percent of Republicans, 38 percent of Democrats and 42 percent of independents. Meek gets 1 percent of the GOP vote, 19 percent among independents and 50 percent of Democrats.

Rubio gets 49 percent of the men and 37 percent from women likely voters. Crist gets 29 percent of men and 31 percent of women, while Meek wins 18 percent of men and 26 percent of women.

Rubio gets 68 percent of the white evangelical vote, compared to 18 percent for Crist and 10 percent for Meek.

"Rubio's stranglehold on the Republican vote and competitive position among independents makes up for his negligible showing among Democrats," said Brown. "Moreover, his vote is much more solid than his opponents, since only 8 percent of his supporters say they might change their mind, compared to 26 percent of Crist backers and 29 percent of Meek supporters."

Rubio is viewed favorably by 48 percent of voters and unfavorably by 34 percent. Crist gets a split 45 - 47 percent favorability and Meek gets a slightly negative 33 - 36 percent score.

The backing for Rubio is reflected in a 52 - 42 percent preference among likely voters for a U.S. senator who opposes rather than supports President Obama's policies. By a 46 - 37 percent margin, Florida likely voters want Republicans to control the U.S. Senate.

"Rubio has tried to make this election between himself and President Obama's policies, not between himself and Crist or Meek. Given the attitudes of likely voters, that has proven to be a smart strategy that appears likely to bear fruit on Election Day," said Brown.

Crist, once again, appears to have made the wrong choice about his future. Despite trailing badly in the Senate race, he gets a 51 - 43 percent job approval as governor, typically the kind of rating that leads to a re-election.

"Crist probably should not have quit his day job," said Brown of Crist.

From October 6 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,055 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat, Marco Rubio the Republican, and Charlie Crist running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Meek, Rubio,or Crist? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Meek                 22%     1%    50%    19%    18%    26%    10%
Rubio                44     85      5     32     49     37     68
Crist                30     13     38     42     29     31     18
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      1      7      5      4      5      3
 
                     PrtOf  RATING ECONOMY Q16
                     TeaPt  Better Worse  Same
 
Meek                  1%    27%    21%    18%
Rubio                86     20     59     45
Crist                12     49     17     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      4      4      5
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat, Marco Rubio the Republican, and (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Meek, Rubio,or Crist?(This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 13  Sep 30
                     2010    2010
 
Meek                 22      18
Rubio                44      46
Crist                30      33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -
DK/NA                 4       3
 
 
4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                            CAND CHOICE Q4..
                     Tot    KM     MR     CC
 
Made up              81%    70%    92%    74%
Might change         18     29      8     26
DK/NA                 -      1      -      -
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            33%    14%    60%    32%    30%    37%    21%
Unfavorable          36     56     13     34     40     31     53
Hvn't hrd enough     28     28     25     31     27     30     24
REFUSED               2      1      2      3      2      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 13  Sep 30
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            33      29
Unfavorable          36      39
Hvn't hrd enough     28      31
REFUSED               2       1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            48%    84%    15%    37%    52%    43%    66%
Unfavorable          34      5     60     44     32     37     16
Hvn't hrd enough     17     11     24     17     15     19     17
REFUSED               1      -      1      2      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 13  Sep 30
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            48      49
Unfavorable          34      35
Hvn't hrd enough     17      14
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
7. Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            45%    21%    63%    58%    44%    47%    34%
Unfavorable          47     73     26     36     51     42     62
Hvn't hrd enough      5      4      7      3      2      8      2
REFUSED               3      2      4      3      3      4      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 13  Sep 30
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            45      45
Unfavorable          47      47
Hvn't hrd enough      5       5
REFUSED               3       3
 
 
8. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values Kendrick Meek, Marco Rubio, or Charlie Crist?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Meek                 24%     1%    55%    22%    24%    25%     9%
Rubio                43     83      7     31     45     40     68
Crist                26     13     31     37     25     27     17
NO DIFFERENCE(VOL)    1      -      -      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 6      3      7      9      7      6      5
 
 
9. Would you like to see the next United States Senator elected from Florida generally support Barack Obama's policies or oppose Barack Obama's policies?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              42%     6%    86%    43%    37%    50%    16%
Oppose               52     92      8     48     57     46     81
DK/NA                 6      1      6     10      7      4      3
 
 
10. Would you prefer to have the Democrats or the Republicans control the U.S. Senate next year or doesn't it matter to you?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Democrats            37%     1%    87%    31%    32%    43%    16%
Republicans          46     93      1     35     51     39     70
Doesn't matter       15      6     10     29     14     16     12
DK/NA                 3      -      3      5      3      2      1
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              51%    33%    65%    58%    51%    52%    38%
Disapprove           43     64     26     36     46     41     58
DK/NA                 6      3      8      6      4      8      4
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              43%     7%    84%    46%    39%    48%    17%
Disapprove           54     92     13     48     58     48     79
DK/NA                 3      1      3      6      3      4      4