May 26, 2011 - Obama Gets Big Bump In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Nelson Leads GOP Challengers, With No Clear Leader

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President Barack Obama's job approval rating in Florida is 51 - 43 percent approve, a jump from his negative 44 - 52 percent score April 7, before the killing of Osama bin Laden, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson holds leads ranging from 20 to 25 points over his three potential Republican challengers for re-election in 2012, according to the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey.

In a matchup of the three Republicans competing for the GOP nomination to run against Sen. Nelson, the winner is "don't know" which gets 64 percent of the vote. State Senate President Mike Haridopolos gets 13 percent, former Sen. George LeMieux receives 14 percent and former state House majority leader Adam Hasner gets 4 percent.

President Obama's improved job rating in Florida is largely due to a big swing among independent voters, from a negative 39 - 55 percent April 7 to a split 47 - 45 percent today. Democrats now approve of the president's performance 86 - 11 percent compared to 79 - 16 percent in April. Republicans disapprove 84 - 13 percent, unchanged from April.

Men split 49 - 47 percent now compared to a negative 38 - 58 percent then, and women approve 53 - 40 percent now compared to 49 - 46 percent then.

"Whether these numbers represent a 'bin Laden bounce,' President Barack Obama's popularity is up in Florida, which will be a crucial state for him in the 2012 campaign," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The good news for the president is that by 50 - 44 percent Florida voters say Obama deserves a second term in the Oval Office, compared to April when they said 51 - 42 percent that he did not."

In a matchup against an unnamed Republican, Obama leads 44 - 37 percent compared to April when he trailed 41 - 38 percent.

In the Senate race, Nelson has very comfortable early leads:
  • 47 - 26 percent over Haridopolos;
  • 48 - 23 percent over Hasner;
  • 47 - 27 percent over LeMieux.
"Sen. Bill Nelson appears to be in strong shape looking toward his 2012 re-election," said Brown. "When matched against any of three possible GOP challengers, however, Nelson is short of the key 50 percent mark, the magic threshold that signals that an incumbent is going to be very difficult to beat. His strength apparently lies in voter satisfaction with his performance in office. He has a job approval of 51 - 24 percent and by 48 - 30 percent voters say he deserves another term in the Senate.

"At this point there is no real separation among the Republican candidates in terms of running against Nelson or in a primary matchup. They are all pretty far back," said Brown. "And given that almost two-thirds of Republican voters haven't picked a candidate in the primary face- off, the race for the GOP nomination remains wide-open."

On other topics:
  • Voters say 56 - 34 percent that the U.S. should not be fighting in Afghanistan;
  • Voters oppose 57 - 33 percent U.S. involvement in Libya;
  • Voters support 61 - 34 percent increased offshore drilling for oil and gas;
  • By 49 - 41 percent, voters want Congress to repeal the new health care law.
Florida voters approve 49 - 26 percent of the job that Sen. Marco Rubio is doing.

From May 17 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,196 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 463 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.


1.(If registered Republican) If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mike Haridopolos, Adam Hasner, and George LeMieux, for whom would you vote?
                     
                     REGISTERED REP...
                     Tot    Men    Wom
	
Haridopolos          13%    15%    11%
Hasner                4      3      4
LeMieux              14     19      9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      4
DK/NA                64     56     71
 
 
2. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat, and Mike Haridopolos the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Nelson               47%    15%    76%    42%    44%    49%    27%
Haridopolos          26     64      1     22     29     24     52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      4      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      3      3      4      2      3
DK/NA                22     16     20     29     20     24     15
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Nelson               44%    52%    43%    44%    50%
Haridopolos          35     30     33     26     10
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      5      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      3      3      2      5
DK/NA                18     13     20     23     33
 
 
3. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat, and Adam Hasner the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Nelson               48%    19%    75%    44%    44%    51%    35%
Hasner               23     58      1     18     27     20     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      1      5      3      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      2      1      3      1      -
DK/NA                24     18     20     32     23     25     15
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Nelson               48%    53%    45%    43%    48%
Hasner               29     28     30     22     10
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      4      5      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      2      2      4
DK/NA                21     15     19     28     35
 
 
4. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat, and George LeMieux the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Nelson               47%    18%    74%    43%    43%    50%    31%
LeMieux              27     63      4     22     31     23     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      5      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      3      1      3      1      1
DK/NA                22     17     19     30     21     23     15
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Nelson               45%    52%    45%    46%    46%
LeMieux              34     30     31     23     17
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      2      5      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      2      2      3
DK/NA                20     14     19     25     32
 
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              49%    78%    28%    50%    54%    46%    72%
Disapprove           26      8     44     23     27     26      9
DK/NA                24     13     28     27     19     29     19
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Approve              51%    50%    49%    59%    45%
Disapprove           25     28     29     28     23
DK/NA                24     22     22     14     32
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     May 26  Apr 7   Feb 3
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              49      47      42
Disapprove           26      23      20
DK/NA                24      30      37
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              51%    39%    66%    47%    51%    52%    40%
Disapprove           24     42     10     24     28     21     44
DK/NA                25     19     24     28     22     27     15
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Approve              50%    60%    41%    57%    55%
Disapprove           29     25     34     21     11
DK/NA                20     16     25     22     34
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS....
                                                     High    Low     High
                     May 26  Apr 7   Feb 03  Aug 19  Feb 06  Aug 12  Aug 19
                     2011    2011    2011    2010    2007    2004    2010
 
Approve              51      47      45      45      54      42      45
Disapprove           24      26      21      33      18      18      33
DK/NA                25      27      34      22      28      40      22
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              51%    13%    86%    47%    49%    53%    20%
Disapprove           43     84     11     45     47     40     76
DK/NA                 6      4      3      8      4      7      4
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Approve              49%    51%    43%    45%    62%
Disapprove           48     44     50     52     31
DK/NA                 3      5      7      3      8
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     May 26  Apr 7  Feb 03  Aug 19  Jul 30   Feb 19  Jun 09
                     2011    2011    2011    2010    2010    2009    2010
 
Approve              51      44      47      47      46      64      40
Disapprove           43      52      49      47      50      23      54
DK/NA                 6       4       4       5       4      13       6
 
 
11. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Obama                44%     7%    83%    35%    42%    46%    14%
Republican           37     81      4     36     39     35     71
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 12      9      7     19     12     12     12
DK/NA                 7      3      6     10      6      7      3
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Obama                44%    46%    40%    38%    50%
Republican           42     36     45     46     24
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL)  8     12     11     11     16
DK/NA                 7      5      4      5     11
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate?
                     May 26  Apr 7   Feb 3
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Obama                44      38      40
Republican           37      41      42
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 12      13      12
DK/NA                 7       9       6
 
 
12. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes/Deserves         50%    10%    87%    45%    49%    50%    16%
No/Does not          44     87      8     47     46     42     79
DK/NA                 6      4      5      8      5      7      6
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Yes/Deserves         46%    50%    43%    42%    61%
No/Does not          48     45     50     52     32
DK/NA                 6      5      7      6      7
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     May 26  Apr 7   Feb 3
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Yes/Deserves         50      42      45
No/Does not          44      51      48
DK/NA                 6       8       8
 
 
13. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator... Do you feel that Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes/Deserves         48%    30%    67%    45%    46%    51%    36%
No/Does not          30     51     13     31     35     26     52
DK/NA                22     19     21     24     20     23     12
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Yes/Deserves         47%    49%    42%    58%    52%
No/Does not          33     33     38     26     18
DK/NA                20     18     19     16     30
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator. Do you feel that Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     May 26  Apr 7   Feb 3
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Yes/Deserves         48      43      43
No/Does not          30      35      33
DK/NA                22      21      25
 
 
14. Which one of the following statements comes closest to the way you feel about Barack Obama - A) I like Barack Obama as a person and I also like most of his policies B) I like Barack Obama as a person but I don't like most of his policies C) I don't like Barack Obama as a person but I DO like most of his policies D) I don't like Barack Obama as a person and I also don't like most of his
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Person/Policies      45%     9%    83%    35%    42%    47%    16%
Person/Not policies  31     41     12     42     32     29     41
Policies/Not person   2      -      2      1      2      1      1
Not Pol/Not person   19     45      2     16     21     18     38
DK/NA                 4      4      1      5      3      4      4
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Person/Policies      45%    46%    42%    40%    48%
Person/Not policies  28     27     30     33     34
Policies/Not person   1      1      2      1      2
Not Pol/Not person   23     22     23     25     10
DK/NA                 4      4      3      2      5
 
TREND: Which one of the following statements comes closest to the way you feel about Barack Obama - A. I like Barack Obama as a person and I also like most of his policies B. I like Barack Obama as a person but I don't like most of his policies C. I don't like Barack Obama as a person but I DO like most of his policies D. I don't like Barack Obama as a person and I also don't like most of his
                     May 26  Apr 07
                     2011    2011
 
Person/Policies      45      40
Person/Not policies  31      30
Policies/Not person   2       1
Not Pol/Not person   19      24
DK/NA                 4       4
 
 
15. Which one of the following statements comes closest to the way you feel about Rick Scott - A) I like Rick Scott as a person and I also like most of his policies B) I like Rick Scott as a person but I don't like most of his policies C) I don't like Rick Scott as a person but I DO like most of his policies D) I don't like Rick Scott as a person and I also don't like most of his
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Person/Policies      21%    40%     9%    18%    23%    19%    38%
Person/Not policies  18     13     18     22     18     19     16
Policies/Not person   9     12      4     12     11      7     10
Not Pol/Not person   42     25     60     37     37     46     25
DK/NA                10     10      9     12     11     10     11
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Person/Policies      26%    21%    22%    32%    12%
Person/Not policies  19     15     18     13     23
Policies/Not person  13     10      9      6      6
Not Pol/Not person   34     47     41     40     44
DK/NA                 9      7      9      9     14
 
TREND: Which one of the following statements comes closest to the way you feel about Rick Scott - A. I like Rick Scott as a person and I also like most of his policies B. I like Rick Scott as a person but I don't like most of his policies C. I don't like Rick Scott as a person but I DO like most of his policies D. I don't like Rick Scott as a person and I also don't like most of his
                     May 26  Apr 07
                     2011    2011
 
Person/Policies      21      24
Person/Not policies  18      16
Policies/Not person   9      10
Not Pol/Not person   42      40
DK/NA                10      11
 
 
26. In general, do you support or oppose the United States increasing the amount of drilling for oil and natural gas in offshore waters?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              61%    84%    40%    65%    66%    55%    82%
Oppose               34     13     52     29     30     37     17
DK/NA                 6      3      8      6      4      7      2
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Support              62%    60%    68%    58%    53%
Oppose               34     35     27     40     37
DK/NA                 3      5      5      2     10
 
TREND: In general, do you support or oppose the United States increasing the amount of drilling for oil and natural gas in offshore waters?
                     May 26  Apr 7   Jul 30  Jun 9   Apr 19  Jan 27
                     2011    2011    2010    2010    2010    2010
 
Support              61      60      42      42      66      63
Oppose               34      35      51      51      27      33
DK/NA                 6       4       7       6       8       4
 
 
30. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Right thing          34%    49%    28%    29%    41%    28%    45%
Shld't be invl       56     43     62     60     50     60     46
DK/NA                10      8     10     11      8     12     10
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Right thing          39%    34%    41%    33%    25%
Shld't be invl       50     56     52     55     62
DK/NA                11     10      7     11     13
 
TREND: Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
                     May 26  Apr 7   Feb 03  Aug 19
                     2011    2011    2011    2010
 
Right thing          34      36      38      43
Shld't be invl       56      59      54      49
DK/NA                10       6       7       7
 
 
31. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by using military force in Libya now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Libya now?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Right thing          33%    39%    31%    31%    39%    28%    33%
Shld't be invl       57     54     54     59     53     59     58
DK/NA                11      7     14     10      8     13     10
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Right thing          38%    31%    36%    30%    28%
Shld't be invl       55     60     54     56     59
DK/NA                 7     10     10     14     13
 
 
32. Do you think Congress should repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Repeal it            49%    84%    21%    52%    50%    49%    72%
Let it stand         41     12     69     34     41     42     20
DK/NA                10      4     10     13     10     10      8
 
                     North/
                     PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Repeal it            60%    50%    55%    51%    35%
Let it stand         35     45     35     40     49
DK/NA                 5      5     10      9     16
 
TREND: Do you think Congress should repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand?
                     May 26  Apr 7    Feb 3
                     2011    2011     2011
 
Repeal it            49      49       50
Let it stand         41      41       43
DK/NA                10      10        7