August 4, 2011 - Debt Deal Doesn't Rescue Obama From Florida Crash, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Romney Closes Gap In 2012 Presidential Race

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The national debt ceiling deal does not rescue President Barack Obama's crashing job approval rating in Florida as he gets a negative 44 - 51 percent score among voters surveyed August 1 - 2, after the deal was announced, compared to a negative 44 - 50 percent score among voters surveyed July 27 - 31, before the deal, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a positive 51 - 43 percent approval rating for President Obama in a May 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll.

Florida voters surveyed after the deal say 50 - 42 percent that Obama does not deserve to be reelected, compared to a 47 - 46 percent split before the deal and 50 - 44 percent support for his reelection May 26.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the leading Republican challenger in the 2012 presidential race, ties Obama 44 - 44 percent post-deal, compared to a 46 - 41 percent Obama lead pre-deal. Obama has double-digit leads over other top Republicans pre-deal and post-deal, except for Texas Gov. Rick Perry who trails Obama 44 - 39 percent post-deal.

"President Barack Obama's numbers in the key swing state of Florida have gone south in the last two months. The debt ceiling deal is not making any difference in that decline and any bounce he got from the bin Laden operation is long since gone," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The president's drop off is huge among independent voters who now disapprove almost 2-1."

The post-debt deal poll shows little change in Obama's May approval among Republicans and Democrats. But among independent voters he plummets from a 47 - 45 percent split in May to a 61 - 33 percent disapproval today.

Men, who approved 49 - 47 percent in May, disapprove in the post-deal survey 54 - 42 percent. Women go from 53 - 40 percent approval in May to a 46 - 49 percent split today.

Romney leads the GOP presidential primary with 23 percent, followed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry with 13 percent and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul with 9 percent each. Businessman Herman Cain has 8 percent, with 6 percent for Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachman. No other candidate tops 4 percent.

"Gov. Rick Perry's stock is rising even before he announces whether he'll run," said Brown. "U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, who had been surging in other states, is stalled."

Florida voters approve 50 - 37 percent of the debt ceiling deal, but only 2 percent say they are enthusiastic about it; 41 percent are satisfied but not enthusiastic; 36 percent are dissatisfied but not angry, while 18 percent, including 23 percent of independent voters, say they are angry.

Obama acted in their best interests in the debt ceiling deal, 36 percent of voters say, compared to 32 percent who say that about House Speaker John Boehner and 12 percent who say Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid acted in their best interest.

In the pre-agreement poll, voters said 46 - 33 percent they thought Obama rather than the Republicans had acted more responsibly in the negotiations.

Looking at Florida's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson gets a 45 - 33 percent approval rating, pre-deal, and a 42 - 35 percent score post-deal. Nelson leads an unnamed Republican challenger 46 - 35 percent post-deal.

The race for the GOP senate nomination remains wide open with 53 percent of Republicans undecided. Michael McCalister, a retired military official and businessman, gets 15 percent followed by former Sen. George LeMieux at 12 percent, businessman Craig Miller at 8 percent and former House GOP leader Adam Hasner at 6 percent.

From July 27 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 674 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percent. August 1 - 2, 743 registered voters were surveyed with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The total survey of 1,417 registered voters surveyed from July 27 - August 2 includes 510 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (If registered Republican) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain and Thaddeus McCotter for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.......
                                          WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Perry                13%    15%    11%    16%
Palin                 9      7     11     13
Gingrich              4      1      6      5
Romney               23     23     22     16
Pawlenty              3      1      4      1
Bachmann              6      9      3      5
Santorum              1      1      2      2
Paul                  9     10      8     10
Huntsman              1      1      1      -
Cain                  8     11      6      8
McCotter              -      -      -      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      5      1      3
DK/NA                17     12     24     17
 
 
1a. (If voting for Perry q1) Who is your second choice? (q1 Recalculated without Perry using second choice question)
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.......
                     Q1 WITHOUT PERRY.............
                                          WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Palin                 9%     7%    12%    14%
Gingrich              4      2      6      5
Romney               27     28     26     21
Pawlenty              5      4      5      5
Bachmann             10     13      6      9
Santorum              1      1      2      2
Paul                  9     11      8     11
Huntsman              1      1      2      1
Cain                 10     13      6      9
McCotter              -      -      -      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      5      1      3
DK/NA                18     12     24     18
 
 
1b. (if voting for Palin q1) Who is your second choice? (q1 Recalculated without Palin using second choice question)
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.......
                     Q1 WITHOUT PALIN.............
                                          WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Perry                14%    16%    12%    18%
Gingrich              5      2      9      9
Romney               24     24     25     18
Pawlenty              3      1      4      1
Bachmann              7     10      5      7
Santorum              1      1      2      2
Paul                 10     11      8     10
Huntsman              1      1      1      -
Cain                  9     12      6      8
McCotter              -      1      -      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      5      1      3
DK/NA                19     12     26     20
 
 
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Adam Hasner, George LeMieux, Craig Miller and Mike McCalister for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.......
                                          WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Hasner                6%     6%     5%     6%
LeMieux              12     13     10      9
Miller                8     10      6      8
McCalister           15     13     17     13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      4      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      3      3
DK/NA                53     49     57     58
 
TREND: (If registered Republican)If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Adam Hasner, George LeMieux, Craig Miller and Mike McCalister for whom would you vote? (*na=not asked in survey reported)
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     Aug 04  May 26
                     2011    2011
 
Hasner                6       4
LeMieux              12      14
Miller                8      na
McCalister           15      na
Haridopolos          na      13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       4
DK/NA                53      64
 
 
3. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                49%    15%    79%    48%    46%    51%
Perry                36     73     11     28     41     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      3      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      1      4      3      4
DK/NA                11      8      8     16      9     13
 
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                44%     7%    83%    35%    42%    47%
Perry                39     84      8     39     40     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      2      6      5      3
DK/NA                12      6      6     17     11     12
 
4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Michele Bachmann the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                50%    17%    84%    46%    47%    53%
Bachmann             36     76      9     31     42     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      4      4      3
DK/NA                10      5      6     17      6     13
 
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                50%     9%    85%    47%    50%    49%
Bachmann             38     82     10     35     38     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      3      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      2      5      4      2
DK/NA                 7      4      4     10      5     10
 
5. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                46%    12%    83%    38%    42%    49%
Romney               41     82     12     37     45     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      3      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      -      4      3      2
DK/NA                 9      3      5     18      8      9
 
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                44%     4%    84%    32%    41%    46%
Romney               44     89      9     46     45     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      4      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      4      4      1
DK/NA                 8      5      4     13      8      8
 
6. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Sarah Palin the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                54%    18%    85%    53%    51%    56%
Palin                33     74      8     23     36     30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      3      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      4      2     10      6      5
DK/NA                 6      3      4     12      6      7
 
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                53%    14%    87%    48%    52%    53%
Palin                34     75      7     34     36     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      5      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      6      2      7      4      5
DK/NA                 6      4      3      7      6      6
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              45%    72%    29%    40%    48%    43%
Disapprove           35     16     50     35     33     37
DK/NA                20     12     21     25     19     21
 
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              49%    78%    21%    54%    58%    41%
Disapprove           36     14     61     29     31     40
DK/NA                15      8     18     17     11     19
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     DEBT DEAL.....
                     Post    Pre
                     Aug 04  Aug 04  May 26  Apr 07  Feb 03
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              49      45      49      47      42
Disapprove           36      35      26      23      20
DK/NA                15      20      24      30      37
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              45%    34%    62%    37%    45%    44%
Disapprove           33     49     15     36     34     32
DK/NA                22     17     23     27     22     23
 
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              42%    33%    54%    44%    41%    43%
Disapprove           35     45     23     34     36     34
DK/NA                23     22     23     22     23     23
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Low also 42% Aug 2004)
                     DEBT DEAL.....                          APPROVE.......
                     Post    Pre                             High    Low
                     Aug 04  Aug 04  May 26  Apr 07  Feb 03  Feb 06  Aug 04
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2007    2011*
                                                             
Approve              42      45      51      47      45      54      42
Disapprove           35      33      24      26      21      18      35
DK/NA                23      22      25      27      34      28      23
 
 
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              44%    13%    72%    42%    42%    46%
Disapprove           50     85     20     52     54     47
DK/NA                 5      1      8      6      4      7
 
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              44%    10%    82%    33%    42%    46%
Disapprove           51     88     14     61     54     49
DK/NA                 5      3      4      6      5      5
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     DEBT DEAL.....                          APPROVE.......
                     Post    Pre                             High    Low
                     Aug 04  Aug 04  May 26  Apr 07  Feb 03  Feb 19  Jun 09
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2009    2010
 
Approve              44      44      51      44      47      64      40
Disapprove           51      50      43      52      49      23      54
DK/NA                 5       5       6       4       4      13       6
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job?
                     WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              29%    14%    52%    21%    30%    29%
Disapprove           62     78     34     73     65     59
DK/NA                 9      8     14      5      5     12
 
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              29%     5%    56%    24%    28%    30%
Disapprove           66     94     40     67     69     63
DK/NA                 5      1      4      9      3      7
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job?
                     WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              23%    49%     7%    18%    21%    25%
Disapprove           68     44     81     77     69     68
DK/NA                 9      8     12      5     10      7
 
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              26%    51%    10%    24%    26%    25%
Disapprove           69     44     88     67     69     70
DK/NA                 5      5      2      8      5      5
 
 
15. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes/Deserves         47%    12%    81%    43%    45%    48%
No/Does not          46     85     15     45     51     42
DK/NA                 7      3      4     12      4      9
 
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes/Deserves         42%     9%    78%    32%    40%    44%
No/Does not          50     90     16     55     51     49
DK/NA                 8      1      5     13      8      7
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     DEBT DEAL.....
                     Post    Pre
                     Aug 04  Aug 04  May 26  Apr 07  Feb 03
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Yes/Deserves         42      47      50      42      45
No/Does not          50      46      44      51      48
DK/NA                 8       7       6       8       8
 
 
16. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator... If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bill Nelson the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate?
                     WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Nelson               45%     9%    80%    42%    44%    45%
Republican           33     74      6     25     35     31
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL)  8     11      5      9      9      7
DK/NA                14      7      9     24     12     16
 
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Nelson               46%     9%    82%    40%    43%    48%
Republican           35     77      4     32     40     31
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL)  7      6      3     11      8      6
DK/NA                12      8     11     17      9     16
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator...If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bill Nelson the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate?
                     DEBT DEAL.....
                     Post    Pre
                     Aug 04  Aug 04  Apr 07  Feb 03
                     2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Nelson               46      45      43      41
Republican           35      33      39      36
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL)  7       8       8      10
DK/NA                12      14      10      13
 
 
17. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator...Do you feel that Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes/Deserves         45%    21%    70%    42%    43%    46%
No/Does not          36     65     12     36     39     34
DK/NA                19     15     18     22     18     20
 
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes/Deserves         44%    18%    65%    46%    45%    42%
No/Does not          38     60     19     35     42     34
DK/NA                18     22     15     19     13     23
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator. Do you feel that Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     DEBT DEAL.....
                     Post    Pre
                     Aug 04  Aug 04  May 26  Apr 07  Feb 03
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Yes/Deserves         44      45      48      43      43
No/Does not          38      36      30      35      33
DK/NA                18      19      22      21      25
 
 
18. Regardless of how you feel about Barack Obama's policies, would you say you like or don't like Barack Obama as a person?
                     WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Like                 69%    44%    86%    73%    70%    67%
Don't Like           18     40      6     13     17     19
DK/NA                13     17      8     14     12     14
 
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Like                 73%    47%    94%    75%    74%    72%
Don't Like           17     41      3     13     16     18
DK/NA                10     12      3     12     10     10
 
 
19. And regardless of how you feel about Barack Obama as a person, would you say you like or don't like most of Barack Obama's policies?
                     WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Like                 45%    10%    79%    40%    42%    47%
Don't Like           48     85     16     48     50     45
DK/NA                 8      5      5     12      8      7
 
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Like                 42%     5%    79%    35%    38%    46%
Don't Like           52     90     17     59     56     48
DK/NA                 6      5      4      6      5      7
 
 
29. Who do you think is behaving more responsibly in the negotiations over the national debt ceiling - President Obama or Republicans in Congress?
                     WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                46%    15%    73%    46%    43%    49%
Republicans          33     63     13     28     35     32
BOTH (VOL)            1      -      -      3      1      1
NEITHER (VOL)        11     13      5     15     13     10
DK/NA                 8      8      9      8      8      8
 
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                48%    11%    82%    43%    46%    49%
Republicans          33     69      5     34     36     30
BOTH (VOL)            2      1      3      3      4      1
NEITHER (VOL)        12     13      7     15     12     13
DK/NA                 5      6      3      5      3      7
 
 
30. Who do you think is behaving more responsibly in the negotiations over the national debt ceiling - Democrats in Congress or Republicans in Congress?
                     WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Democrats            40%    12%    70%    36%    38%    42%
Republicans          32     64      9     28     36     29
BOTH (VOL)            2      -      1      4      -      4
NEITHER (VOL)        17     13     12     25     19     15
DK/NA                 9     11      8      7      7     10
 
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Democrats            38%     9%    69%    33%    39%    37%
Republicans          34     74      5     34     40     29
BOTH (VOL)            3      2      3      5      5      2
NEITHER (VOL)        19     12     17     21     13     25
DK/NA                 5      3      6      7      3      7
 
 
31. As you may know, President Obama and Congressional leaders reached a deal to raise the government's debt ceiling while cutting spending by about $2.4 trillion. Do you approve or disapprove of this deal?
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              50%    48%    53%    47%    48%    51%
Disapprove           37     40     35     36     42     33
DK/NA                13     11     12     16     10     15
 
 
32. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about this deal. Do you feel - enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Enthusiastic          2      1      -      3      2      1
Sat/Not enthusiastic 41     44     48     38     39     43
DisS/Not angry       36     37     34     31     34     38
Angry                18     17     13     23     21     15
DK/NA                 4      1      4      4      4      3
 
 
33. Who do you think acted in - the nation's best interests in the debt ceiling negotiations; President Barack Obama, House Speaker John Boehner, or Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid?
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                36      9     65     29     33     38
Boehner              33     67      6     33     38     28
Reid                 11      8     13     12     11     11
ALL(VOL)              -      -      -      -      1      -
NONE(VOL)             6      5      2      7      6      6
DK/NA                14     10     13     18     11     17
 
 
34. Who do you think acted in - your best interests in the debt ceiling negotiations; President Barack Obama, House Speaker John Boehner, or Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid?
                     MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                36     10     55     37     33     38
Boehner              32     68      7     28     35     28
Reid                 12      6     20     10     13     12
ALL(VOL)              -      -      -      1      1      -
NONE(VOL)             9      7      5     12      9      8
DK/NA                11      9     12     12      9     13
 

Demographic Summary