January 27, 2012 - Romney Pulls Ahead In See-Saw Florida GOP Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Men Shift From Gingrich To Romney

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Just four days before the nation's first big-state presidential primary, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney opens up a 38 - 29 percent lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich among Republican likely voters in Florida, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Only 6 percent are undecided, but 32 percent say they might change their mind by Tuesday.

This compares to results of a January 25 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, showing Romney with 36 percent of likely primary voters to Gingrich's 34 percent. Wednesday's survey showed Gingrich ahead 40 - 34 percent among voters surveyed after the South Carolina primary.

In today's survey, men back Romney 36 - 29 percent, a shift from January 25, when men backed Gingrich 37 - 33 percent. Romney leads 40 - 30 percent among women, virtually unchanged.

Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul has 14 percent of likely primary voters today, with 12 percent for former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

Romney gets a 61 - 28 percent favorability rating from likely primary voters, compared to 50 - 38 percent favorable for Gingrich, 53 - 19 percent favorable for Santorum and a negative 35 - 42 percent for Paul.

"Speaker Newt Gingrich's momentum from his South Carolina victory appears to have stalled and Gov. Mitt Romney seems to be pulling away in Florida," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Romney also has a better favorability rating from likely primary voters, which supports his lead in the horse race. Of course, with four days before Election Day, there is time for another reversal. Three in 10 voters say they might change their mind."

"With the debates now over, Gingrich will need some other way to reverse the tide that appears to be going against him," Brown added.

From January 24 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 580 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Gingrich             29%    29%    30%    36%    16%    39%    27%    41%    24%
Romney               38     36     40     34     50     29     49     20     47
Santorum             12     10     14     15      6     18     10     18     10
Paul                 14     19      8     10     20      6      9     16     12
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      2      1      1      2      1      1      1
DK/NA                 6      5      6      4      5      6      3      4      6
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K   30-50 50-100 >100
 
Gingrich             30%    29%    17%    36%    32%    27%    23%    37%    30%
Romney               43     36     41     34     43     30     45     36     44
Santorum             12     12     14     12      9      9     12     14     13
Paul                 11     15     22     12      9     21     18      9     11
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      -      2      2      -      1      -
DK/NA                 3      7      6      6      4     12      2      3      2
 
TREND: (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)(na= not asked)
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jan 27  Jan 25 Jan 09
                     2012    2012   2012
                             
Gingrich             29      34     24 
Romney               38      36     36 
Santorum             12      13     16 
Paul                 14      10     10 
Huntsman             na      na      2
Perry                na      na      5 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1      - 
DK/NA                 6       7      7 
 
 
1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    NG     MR     
 
Mind made up         67%    70%    67%    
Might change         32     29     32     
DK/NA                 1      1      1     
 
TREND: (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jan 27  Jan 25 Jan 09
                     2012    2012   2012
 
Mind made up         67      61     44
Might change         32      38     54
DK/NA                 1       1      1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of - Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            50%    52%    48%    60%    34%    59%    49%    65%    44%
Unfavorable          38     38     37     32     52     29     40     29     42
Hvn't hrd enough      9      6     12      7     11     10      7      4     10
REFUSED               4      4      3      2      3      2      4      2      4
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K   30-50 50-100 >100
 
Favorable            55%    48%    45%    53%    53%    41%    48%    60%    55%
Unfavorable          37     38     39     40     35     35     40     33     40
Hvn't hrd enough      6     10     14      5      8     20      7      6      4
REFUSED               2      4      3      3      4      4      4      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jan 27  Jan 25  Jan 09
                     2012    2012    2012
                                     
Favorable            50      61      59
Unfavorable          38      26      29 
Hvn't hrd enough      9       9       9 
REFUSED               4       3       2 
 
 
3. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            61%    60%    63%    63%    67%    56%    73%    61%    64%
Unfavorable          28     32     24     29     22     31     20     33     25
Hvn't hrd enough      9      7     11      7     11     11      5      5      8
REFUSED               2      2      2      1      -      2      2      1      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K   30-50 50-100 >100
 
Favorable            72%    56%    55%    63%    70%    48%    66%    63%    73%
Unfavorable          23     30     30     29     21     29     30     27     23
Hvn't hrd enough      4     11     15      6      6     21      2      8      3
REFUSED               1      2      -      2      4      2      2      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS                       
                     Jan 27  Jan 25  Jan 09
                     2012    2012    2012
                             
Favorable            61      71      73
Unfavorable          28      19      14 
Hvn't hrd enough      9       7      10 
REFUSED               2       3       3 
 
 
4. Is your opinion of - Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            53%    54%    51%    60%    43%    63%    48%    67%    48%
Unfavorable          19     23     15     14     27     14     21     17     18
Hvn't hrd enough     26     21     32     25     28     21     30     15     31
REFUSED               2      2      2      1      3      2      1      1      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K   30-50 50-100 >100
 
Favorable            61%    49%    48%    56%    53%    41%    52%    58%    65%
Unfavorable          18     20     23     18     15     21     18     19     20
Hvn't hrd enough     20     29     29     24     27     37     27     23     15
REFUSED               1      3      1      2      4      1      4      -      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jan 27  Jan 25  Jan 09
                     2012    2012    2012
                                     
Favorable            53      58      59
Unfavorable          19      13       8 
Hvn't hrd enough     26      28      33 
REFUSED               2       2       - 
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            35%    42%    28%    33%    42%    29%    33%    39%    33%
Unfavorable          42     42     43     47     33     51     40     49     41
Hvn't hrd enough     20     13     27     17     25     19     25     11     24
REFUSED               3      3      3      3      -      1      2      2      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K   30-50 50-100 >100
 
Favorable            39%    34%    44%    34%    29%    37%    40%    34%    39%
Unfavorable          43     41     34     43     48     37     33     51     42
Hvn't hrd enough     15     22     22     19     19     26     25     14     18
REFUSED               2      3      -      3      4      -      2      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jan 27  Jan 25  Jan 09
                     2012    2012    2012
                                     
Favorable            35      36      34
Unfavorable          42      40      47 
Hvn't hrd enough     20      20      19 
REFUSED               3       3       1