March 29, 2012 - Nelson Opens 8-Point Lead Over Mack In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Women Are Key To Democrat's Lead

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Breaking out of a dead heat in Florida, Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson opens a 44 - 36 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, the Republican challenger, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Today's results compare to a tie with Nelson at 41 percent and Mack at 40 percent in a January 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Today, Nelson leads 46 - 32 percent among women, while men split 41 - 41 percent. Republicans go 75 - 9 percent for Mack while Nelson leads 80 - 7 percent among Democrats and 40 - 30 percent among independent voters, but 27 percent of these voters are undecided.

"President Barack Obama's surge in Florida is helping Sen. Bill Nelson's re-election chances," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Just as President Obama's lead in the presidential race in the Sunshine State is fueled by female voters, so too is Nelson's. He also is running better among several groups, including whites and Catholics and voters 50 to 64 years old."

From March 20 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,228 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

8a. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Connie Mack the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp


Nelson 44% 9% 80% 40% 41% 46% 41% 64% 37% Mack 36 75 7 30 41 32 41 16 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 - DK/NA 17 12 12 27 14 19 14 19 30

WHITE............................................... COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Miltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHold

Nelson 43% 40% 30% 42% 37% 44% 22% 40% 37% Mack 43 41 52 40 47 36 61 40 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 DK/NA 12 16 15 14 11 17 13 16 17

COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+

Nelson 47% 42% 54% 40% 41% 45% 38% 48% 44% Mack 37 36 26 37 43 38 32 38 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 4 2 3 - 2 3 1 DK/NA 14 18 15 20 12 15 28 10 12



TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Connie Mack the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")

                     Mar 29  Jan 11  Nov 11
                     2012    2012    2011


Nelson 44 41 42% Mack 36 40 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 DK/NA 17 16 16




Demographic Summary