May 1, 2014 - Jeb Bush Is Top Dog In Florida 2016 GOP Pack, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Clinton On Top, Despite Bad Obama Grades
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Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is way out in front over U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and other possible Republican candidates for the 2016 presidential nomination in his home state, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

But despite President Barack Obama's underwater job approval rating, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads a list of Republicans by margins of 8 percentage points or higher, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Gov. Bush leads the Florida Republican primary with 27 percent, followed by U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky with 14 percent, Sen. Rubio at 11 percent, New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie at 7 percent, with 6 percent each for Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Wisconsin U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan. No other candidate tops 4 percent and 16 percent are undecided.

Secretary Clinton sweeps the Democratic primary with 64 percent, followed by Vice President Joseph Biden with 11 percent and Massachusetts U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 6 percent. No other candidate tops 1 percent and 13 percent are undecided.

"With former Gov. Jeb Bush making noises about a possible 2016 candidacy, his support among Republicans in the Sunshine State appears to be solidifying. He still trails Hillary Clinton in a general election matchup, but he is the only potential GOP nominee who gets within single digits of her," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"For a potential Hillary Clinton candidacy in Florida, November 2016 can't get here soon enough. Not only does she out point the entire field of potential Democratic wannabes for the party nomination put together, but her favorability numbers among all voters is near 60 percent."

"The Republicans angling to oppose Secretary Clinton, should she run, are less known and less liked," Brown added.

Clinton tops several possible Republican candidates in Florida:
  • 49 - 41 percent over Bush;
  • 52 - 40 percent over Rubio;
  • 55 - 37 percent over Paul;
  • 52 - 34 percent over Christie;
  • 56 - 36 percent over Ryan;
  • 57 - 31 percent over Cruz;
  • 53 - 35 percent over Huckabee.
By a 58 - 37 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Bush gets a 53 - 35 percent favorability, with 43 - 36 favorable for Rubio, split scores of 34 - 31 percent for Paul, 37 - 35 percent for Christie and 33 - 36 percent for Ryan, a narrow 36 - 32 percent favorability for Huckabee and a negative 19 - 30 percent favorability for Cruz.

President Obama Approval

Florida voters give President Obama a negative 46 - 50 percent job approval rating, inching up from negative grades of 42 - 53 percent in a January 31 Quinnipiac University poll and 40 - 57 percent in a November 22 survey.

Women are divided with 49 percent approving and 47 percent disapproving. Men give the president a negative 42 - 54 percent grade. Obama gets negative grades of 8 - 91 percent from Republicans and 43 - 52 percent from independent voters while Democrats approve 81 - 16 percent.

"President Barack Obama remains under water in Florida, a state he twice carried. At this point, though, his unpopularity does not appear to be hurting Hillary Clinton," Brown said.

Florida voters approve 47 - 39 percent of the job Sen. Rubio is doing and give U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson a 46 - 32 percent job approval rating.

From April 23 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,413 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 494 Republicans and 501 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1a. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Bush                 27%    29%    26%
Christie              7      6      9
Cruz                  6      5      6
Huckabee              6      5      7
Jindal                1      1      1
Paul                 14     19      7
Rubio                11      9     14
Ryan                  6      7      4
Walker                4      5      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      3
DK/NA                16     14     19
 
TREND: (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     May 01  Jan 31  Nov 22
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Bush                 27      25      22
Christie              7       9      14
Cruz                  6       9      12
Huckabee              6      na      na
Jindal                1       3       3
Paul                 14      11       9
Rubio                11      16      18
Ryan                  6       5       6
Walker                4       5       2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       1
DK/NA                16      14      12
 
 
1b. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O'Malley, Brian Schweitzer, and Elizabeth Warren, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Biden                11%    13%    10%
Clinton              64     58     68
Cuomo                 1      2      1
O'Malley              1      -      1
Schweitzer            1      -      1
Warren                6      8      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      3
DK/NA                13     15     11
 
TREND: (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O'Malley, Brian Schweitzer, and Elizabeth Warren, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     May 01  Jan 31  Nov 22
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Biden                11       9       9
Clinton              64      64      70
Cuomo                 1       1       2
O'Malley              1       1       1
Schweitzer            1      na      na
Warren                6       5       4
Warner               na       1       1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       2       2
DK/NA                13      16      10
 
 
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              49%     7%    91%    47%    42%    56%    59%    49%    52%    44%
Bush                 41     87      6     42     47     36     28     41     40     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      2      1      3      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      1      2      3      2      2      4      2      1
DK/NA                 5      4      2      7      5      6      8      5      5      4
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     May 01  Jan 31  Nov 22  Jun 19  Mar 21
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Clinton              49      49      47      50      51
Bush                 41      43      45      43      40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2       1       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       3       2       2
DK/NA                 5       4       4       4       5
 
 
8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              52%    11%    90%    51%    47%    56%    43%    55%    57%    49%
Rubio                40     85      6     36     44     35     41     37     36     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      2      1      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      1      3      2      1      1      3      1      2
DK/NA                 5      3      3      8      4      6     13      3      5      4
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     May 01  Jan 31  Nov 22  Jun 19  Mar 21
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Clinton              52      51      50      53      52
Rubio                40      41      43      41      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       3       1       1
DK/NA                 5       5       4       4       6
 
 
9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              55%    12%    94%    55%    50%    59%    54%    59%    56%    50%
Paul                 37     81      3     34     42     32     34     33     36     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      1      1      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      1      3      3      2      1      4      1      2
DK/NA                 5      4      2      7      4      6      9      3      5      5
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     May 01  Jan 31  Nov 22
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Clinton              55      53      51
Paul                 37      38      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       2       2
DK/NA                 5       5       6
 
 
10. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              52%    10%    91%    53%    48%    56%    58%    54%    56%    46%
Christie             34     77      4     31     38     31     22     34     31     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      3      3      1      1      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      3      1      5      6      4      4      6      4      4
DK/NA                 7      8      4      9      6      9     15      3      7      7
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     May 01  Jan 31  Nov 22
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Clinton              52      51      45
Christie             34      35      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5       4       4
DK/NA                 7       7       8
 
 
11. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              56%    10%    95%    57%    51%    60%    61%    58%    58%    50%
Ryan                 36     85      3     31     40     31     24     34     35     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      2      1      3      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      2      3      2      2      4      1      2
DK/NA                 5      3      2      7      4      6      9      3      5      4
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     May 01  Jan 31  Nov 22
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Clinton              56      52      50
Ryan                 36      39      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       3
DK/NA                 5       6       4
 
 
12. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              57%    14%    94%    59%    53%    61%    59%    60%    61%    50%
Cruz                 31     74      2     26     35     27     20     30     29     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      2      2      2      3      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      1      3      4      2      3      4      2      3
DK/NA                 7      7      3     10      5      9     15      4      6      7
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     May 01  Jan 31  Nov 22
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Clinton              57      54      52
Cruz                 31      34      36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       2       3
DK/NA                 7       8       7
 
 
13. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mike Huckabee the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              53%    12%    92%    52%    49%    57%    52%    55%    58%    48%
Huckabee             35     79      4     33     38     33     27     35     33     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      2      3      1      4      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      1      3      5      2      4      5      2      3
DK/NA                 6      4      3      9      5      7     13      3      5      5
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            58%    18%    93%    61%    54%    62%    62%    62%    59%    52%
Unfavorable          37     79      2     35     42     33     27     36     35     45
Hvn't hrd enough      4      2      4      3      3      4     11      1      4      2
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      2      -      2      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? (*Low also 44% Jun 2007)
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     May 01  Jun 19  Mar 21  May 22  May 01  Mar 21  Apr 02
                     2014    2013    2013    2008    2008    2013    2008*
 
Favorable            58      57      62      48      49      62      44
Unfavorable          37      38      33      43      40      33      45
Hvn't hrd enough      4       4       4       5       7       4       8
REFUSED               1       1       2       4       4       2       4
 
 
15. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            53%    84%    34%    52%    54%    52%    38%    54%    53%    60%
Unfavorable          35      9     56     34     34     35     37     37     37     29
Hvn't hrd enough     11      7     10     13     10     12     25      8      9      9
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      2      1      -      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     May 01  Jun 19  Mar 21
                     2014    2013    2013
 
Favorable            53      54      50
Unfavorable          35      33      35
Hvn't hrd enough     11      11      13
REFUSED               1       2       2
 
 
16. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            43%    80%    19%    38%    46%    40%    45%    41%    41%    47%
Unfavorable          36      9     60     37     35     37     23     37     42     37
Hvn't hrd enough     19     10     21     22     17     21     31     21     16     16
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      1      1      1      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 44% May 2012)
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     May 01  Jun 19  Mar 21  May 23  Feb 03  Jun 19  Apr 16
                     2014    2013    2013    2012    2011    2013*   2009
 
Favorable            43      44      41      44      41      44      10
Unfavorable          36      33      34      24      17      33      11
Hvn't hrd enough     19      22      24      31      41      22      78
REFUSED               1       1       1       1       2       1       2
 
 
17. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            34%    60%     9%    36%    42%    27%    33%    35%    33%    33%
Unfavorable          31     11     52     28     29     33     13     29     35     37
Hvn't hrd enough     35     28     38     36     28     40     54     35     31     29
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      -      1      1      1
 
 
18. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            37%    53%    28%    37%    41%    35%    27%    35%    40%    41%
Unfavorable          35     24     40     36     35     34     19     40     37     33
Hvn't hrd enough     26     21     30     25     23     30     54     24     20     23
REFUSED               2      2      1      2      2      2      -      1      2      3
 
 
19. Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            33%    71%     7%    29%    39%    28%    28%    31%    33%    37%
Unfavorable          36      4     61     37     37     35     32     38     38     35
Hvn't hrd enough     30     24     31     33     23     37     39     30     28     28
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
 
20. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            19%    40%     2%    16%    24%    13%    14%    17%    18%    23%
Unfavorable          30     13     45     30     34     27     10     31     34     34
Hvn't hrd enough     51     47     52     53     42     59     76     51     48     43
REFUSED               -      -      -      1      -      1      -      1      -      1
 
 
21. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            36%    72%    10%    34%    39%    33%    26%    33%    35%    42%
Unfavorable          32     10     48     32     35     30     20     34     36     32
Hvn't hrd enough     31     17     41     33     25     36     52     32     26     24
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      1      2      2      -      3      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     May 01  Dec 05  Feb 07
                     2014    2007    2007
 
Favorable            36      26       7
Unfavorable          32      16      11
Hvn't hrd enough     31      56      82
REFUSED               1       3       1
 
 
24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              47%    82%    26%    40%    51%    43%    49%    48%    41%    51%
Disapprove           39      8     60     44     38     39     37     38     44     36
DK/NA                14     11     14     16     10     17     15     14     15     12
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     May 01  Jan 30  Nov 22  Jun 19  Mar 20  May 23  Feb 03
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2013    2012    2011
 
Approve              47      52      48      51      48      54      42
Disapprove           39      37      39      35      33      27      20
DK/NA                14      11      13      14      19      19      37
 
 
25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              46%    29%    66%    45%    44%    48%    43%    42%    51%    47%
Disapprove           32     48     16     30     37     27     31     34     28     34
DK/NA                22     23     18     25     20     25     26     24     21     19
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Low also 42% Aug 2004)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     May 01  Jan 30  Nov 22  Jun 19  Mar 20  Feb 06  Aug 04
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2013    2007    2011*
 
Approve              46      48      43      51      49      54      42
Disapprove           32      30      37      29      28      18      35
DK/NA                22      21      21      20      23      28      23
 
 
26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              46%     8%    81%    43%    42%    49%    61%    44%    48%    40%
Disapprove           50     91     16     52     54     47     36     51     50     56
DK/NA                 4      1      3      5      3      4      4      6      2      3
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     May 01  Jan 31  Nov 22  Jun 19  Mar 21  Feb 19  Sep 22
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2013    2009    2011
 
Approve              46      42      40      47      50      64      39
Disapprove           50      53      57      48      45      23      57
DK/NA                 4       5       3       5       5      13       5
 
 

Demographic Summary

Additional Crosstabs