July 23, 2014 - Unknown Libertarian Confuses Florida Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Don't Trust Scott Or Crist
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Florida Republican Gov. Rick Scott trails former Gov. Charlie Crist, running as a Democrat, by a narrow 45 - 40 percent margin in a two-way race. When Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie is added to the mix, the race is too close to call, with 39 percent for Crist, 37 percent for Scott and 9 percent for Wyllie, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 48 - 38 percent Crist lead in a head-to-head matchup without Wyllie in an April 30 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Today, Scott leads former State Sen. Nan Rich 41 - 34 percent in a two-way race.

Wyllie gets his strongest support from independent voters who back Crist over Scott 45 - 38 percent in a two-way matchup, but split with 36 percent for Crist and 34 percent for Scott, with 12 percent for Wyllie, in the three-way race.

Republicans back Scott 79 - 12 percent in the two-way, and 74 - 9 percent, with 5 percent for Wyllie, in the three-way. Democrats go from 78 - 10 percent for Crist in the two- way to 73 - 9 percent, with 6 percent for Wyllie.

Florida voters give Scott a negative 43 - 48 percent approval rating, one of his best scores in almost four years in office, and a negative 40 - 45 percent favorability rating.

Crist gets a split rating, 40 percent favorable and 42 percent unfavorable.

For Wyllie, 92 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

"The campaign to be Florida's next governor tightens slightly and takes on a new dimension with a third candidate in the running," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Libertarian Adrian Wyllie is not, at this point, a serious contender to win the governorship. But he may have a great deal to say about who does win."

"Virtually no one knows much about Wyllie, but there are a lot of Floridians who aren't keen on either of the major party candidates, Gov. Rick Scott or former Gov. Charlie Christ," Brown added.

Gov. Scott does not deserve to be reelected, Florida voters say 51 - 40 percent.

Both candidates get low grades for character:
  • Voters say 51 - 40 percent that Scott is not honest and trustworthy, and say 48 - 39 percent that Crist is not honest and trustworthy;
  • Scott doesn't care about their needs and problems, voters say 52 - 41 percent, and Crist doesn't care, voters say by a slim 47 - 44 percent;
  • Scott has strong leadership qualities, voters say 54 - 38 percent, compared to 49 - 43 percent for Crist.
Florida voters say 48 - 36 percent that Crist is more compassionate than Scott. There is only a small gender gap on this question.

Voters are divided on Crist's party change, from Republican to independent to Democrat, as 47 percent say it's a positive thing and 45 percent say it's negative, compared to a 52 - 40 percent positive score April 30.

"Scott and Crist have been saturating the airwaves with negative ads about each other. An old campaign maxim holds that you can't throw mud without getting dirty yourself and that seems to be what's happening here," Brown said. "Because Wyllie is so unknown and presumably unable to compete in the air war at this point, how he does may be a function of how unhappy voters are with the major party choices."

From July 17 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,251 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

2. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Nan Rich the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Rich                 34%     6%    67%    30%    28%    39%    29%    40%    34%    29%
Scott                41     78     13     39     48     36     35     38     42     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      2      5      4      5      3      2      3      4      5
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      4      3      9      6      6      8      6      6      5
DK/NA                15     10     12     17     13     17     26     13     13     12
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Nan Rich the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 23  Apr 30  Jan 30  Nov 21  Jun 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013
 
Rich                 34      36      37      35      36
Scott                41      42      41      43      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4       3       2       3       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6       4       4       5       2
DK/NA                15      15      15      14      18
 
 
3. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Crist                45%    12%    78%    45%    39%    49%    44%    49%    48%    38%
Scott                40     79     10     38     48     34     37     37     39     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      2      2      2      3      1      3      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      5      3      4      2      4      3      3
DK/NA                 9      5      8     11      8     10     16      7      7      9
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 23  Apr 30  Jan 30  Nov 21  Jun 18  Mar 20
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Crist                45      48      46      47      47      50
Scott                40      38      38      40      37      34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3       3       4       2       3
DK/NA                 9       9      10       8      12      12
 
 
4. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat, Rick Scott the Republican and Adrian Wyllie the Libertarian, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Crist                39%     9%    73%    36%    32%    45%    38%    41%    40%    35%
Scott                37     74      9     34     45     30     28     31     38     47
Wyllie                9      5      6     12      9      8     13     11      8      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      1      1      1      -      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      3      2      3      1      4      2      3
DK/NA                12      7      9     15     11     13     20     12     10      9
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            40%    71%    16%    39%    47%    34%    32%    36%    43%    47%
Unfavorable          45     18     70     46     41     49     45     47     48     40
Hvn't hrd enough     13      8     13     13     11     15     23     15      8     11
REFUSED               2      2      1      2      2      2      1      2      1      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 40% Jun 2013, ** Low also 28% Aug 2010)
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 23  Apr 30  Jan 30  Nov 21  Jun 18  Jul 23  Feb 02
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2014*   2011**
                                                                     
Favorable            40      39      38      39      40      40      28
Unfavorable          45      46      45      42      42      45      24
Hvn't hrd enough     13      12      14      16      16      13      45
REFUSED               2       3       3       2       3       2       3
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            40%    14%    69%    39%    37%    42%    30%    45%    41%    38%
Unfavorable          42     72     16     41     47     38     34     35     45     51
Hvn't hrd enough     16     13     14     17     15     17     37     18     11      8
REFUSED               2      1      1      3      1      2      -      2      3      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 23  Apr 30  Jan 30  Nov 21  Jun 18  Feb 19  Jul 23
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2009    2014
 
Favorable            40      43      44      41      48      68      40
Unfavorable          42      36      35      39      31      21      42
Hvn't hrd enough     16      18      19      18      18       9      16
REFUSED               2       3       3       2       3       3       2
 
 
7. Is your opinion of Nan Rich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable             9%     3%    17%     9%    10%     9%    12%    11%     8%     8%
Unfavorable           7     11      4      7      8      6      8      5      9      5
Hvn't hrd enough     83     86     79     83     81     85     79     84     82     86
REFUSED               1      -      -      1      1      1      1      -      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Nan Rich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Jul 23  Apr 30  Jan 30  Nov 21  Jun 18  Dec 19
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2012
 
Favorable             9       8       7       8       7       6
Unfavorable           7       5       6       5       6       4
Hvn't hrd enough     83      85      86      86      84      90
REFUSED               1       1       1       1       2       1
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Adrian Wyllie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable             4%     4%     2%     6%     5%     3%     4%     6%     5%     1%
Unfavorable           3      4      4      2      5      2      2      4      3      3
Hvn't hrd enough     92     92     95     91     90     95     94     89     92     96
REFUSED               -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -      -      1
 
 
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              43%    70%    21%    42%    51%    36%    37%    39%    46%    50%
Disapprove           48     22     69     50     42     52     50     51     47     42
DK/NA                 9      8      9      8      6     12     13     11      7      8
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor? (* High also 43% Jun 2013)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 23  Apr 30  Jan 30  Nov 21  Jun 18  Jul 23  May 25
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2014*   2011
 
Approve              43      42      41      42      43      43      29
Disapprove           48      50      49      47      44      48      57
DK/NA                 9       7      10      12      13       9      14
 
 
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              36%    57%    19%    37%    41%    32%    36%    40%    36%    33%
Disapprove           48     31     60     52     50     47     46     49     51     46
DK/NA                16     12     21     11      9     21     18     11     13     21
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 23  Apr 30  Jan 30  Nov 21  Jun 19  Sep 23  Mar 20
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2004    2013
 
Approve              36      31      34      31      32      51      25
Disapprove           48      53      49      51      49      34      52
DK/NA                16      16      17      19      19      15      23
 
 
25. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Very satisfied        9%    14%     7%     8%    11%     7%     5%     9%     9%    11%
Smwht satisfied      46     54     41     45     47     44     47     43     48     47
Smwht dissatisfied   29     20     32     31     26     31     32     31     26     25
Very dissatisfied    16     12     19     16     15     17     16     15     16     16
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      -      1      -      1      1      1
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*combined High also 63% Sep 2004)
                                                             VERY+SMWHT....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 23  Apr 30  Jan 30  Nov 21  Jun 18  Feb 24  Sep 22
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2005*   2011
 
Very satisfied        9       5       6       5       5      15       4
Smwht satisfied      46      46      48      43      48      48      31
Smwht dissatisfied   29      29      30      29      28      22      29
Very dissatisfied    16      19      16      22      17      15      34
DK/NA                 1       1       1       1       1       1       2
 
 
26. Do you feel that Rick Scott deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes/Deserves         40%    68%    16%    39%    47%    34%    33%    38%    42%    46%
No/Does not          51     23     77     52     45     56     53     55     51     44
DK/NA                 9      9      7      9      8     10     14      8      8     10
 
TREND: Do you feel that Rick Scott deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Jul 23  Apr 30  Jan 30  Nov 21  Jun 18  Mar 20  Dec 19
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2013    2012
 
Yes/Deserves         40      39      38      37      35      32      30
No/Does not          51      53      54      53      50      55      52
DK/NA                 9       9       9      10      15      13      18
 
 
27. Would you say that Charlie Crist - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  39%    22%    61%    37%    36%    42%    35%    42%    39%    38%
No                   48     68     27     47     53     43     46     44     51     49
DK/NA                13     10     11     16     11     15     19     13     10     13
 
TREND: Would you say that Charlie Crist is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     Jul 23  Apr 30  Nov 21
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Yes                  39      45      40
No                   48      43      42
DK/NA                13      13      18
 
 
28. Would you say that Charlie Crist - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  44%    26%    69%    41%    40%    47%    44%    47%    42%    42%
No                   47     68     24     47     51     43     43     42     50     50
DK/NA                 9      6      7     13      8     10     13     10      8      8
 
TREND: Would you say that Charlie Crist cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     Jul 23  Apr 30
                     2014    2014
 
Yes                  44      48
No                   47      42
DK/NA                 9      10
 
 
29. Would you say that Charlie Crist - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  49%    28%    70%    49%    44%    52%    56%    53%    46%    43%
No                   43     68     20     42     49     38     30     38     47     50
DK/NA                 9      5     10      9      7     10     14      9      7      7
 
TREND: Would you say that Charlie Crist has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     Jul 23  Apr 30
                     2014    2014
 
Yes                  49      55
No                   43      37
DK/NA                 9       9
 
 
30. Would you say that Rick Scott - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  40%    67%    21%    36%    46%    35%    30%    36%    44%    47%
No                   51     27     69     55     47     54     59     55     49     42
DK/NA                10      6     10      9      8     11     11      9      7     12
 
TREND: Would you say that Rick Scott is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     Jul 23  Apr 30  Nov 21
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Yes                  40      38      38
No                   51      51      49
DK/NA                10      11      13
 
 
31. Would you say that Rick Scott - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  41%    68%    21%    38%    47%    36%    43%    33%    44%    46%
No                   52     27     71     55     50     55     55     57     53     44
DK/NA                 7      5      8      7      3     10      2     10      4     10
 
TREND: Would you say that Rick Scott cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     Jul 23  Apr 30
                     2014    2014
 
Yes                  41      38
No                   52      55
DK/NA                 7       8
 
 
32. Would you say that Rick Scott - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  54%    72%    35%    59%    59%    50%    52%    53%    54%    58%
No                   38     24     56     34     37     40     38     40     41     34
DK/NA                 7      5      9      8      4     10     10      7      5      8
 
TREND: Would you say that Rick Scott has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     Jul 23  Apr 30
                     2014    2014
 
Yes                  54      49
No                   38      44
DK/NA                 7       8
 
 
33. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think is more compassionate, Crist or Scott?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Crist                48%    26%    74%    48%    47%    49%    50%    55%    46%    41%
Scott                36     59     15     33     40     33     35     29     39     41
DK/NA                16     15     11     19     13     18     15     17     14     18
 
TREND: Regardless of who you may support, who do you think is more compassionate, Crist or Scott?
                     Jul 23  Apr 30
                     2014    2014
 
Crist                48      50
Scott                36      35
DK/NA                16      15
 
 
34. In recent years, Charlie Crist has changed his party affiliation from Republican to Independent to Democrat. Some people say this is a positive thing because it shows he is a pragmatist who can change with the times and issues. Other people say it is a negative thing because it shows he has no core beliefs. Which comes closest to your view of Charlie Crist?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Positive thing       47%    17%    73%    50%    43%    51%    56%    51%    45%    41%
Negative thing       45     78     19     43     50     41     30     41     49     54
DK/NA                 8      5      7      6      7      8     14      8      6      5
 
TREND: In recent years, Charlie Crist has changed his party affiliation from Republican to Independent to Democrat. Some people say this is a positive thing because it shows he is a pragmatist who can change with the times and issues. Other people say it is a negative thing because it shows he has no core beliefs. Which comes closest to your view of Charlie Crist? (* In the last three years)
                     Jul 23  Apr 30  Nov 21  Jun 18  Mar 20
                     2014    2014    2013*   2013*   2013*
 
Positive thing       47      52      46      47      50
Negative thing       45      40      46      44      40
DK/NA                 8       7       8       9      10
 
 
35. Do you think of your vote for Governor as a vote for Barack Obama, or as a vote against Barack Obama, or isn't Barack Obama much of a factor in your vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
For Obama            16%     2%    35%    12%    11%    20%    20%    18%    16%    11%
Against Obama        16     36      2     10     18     14     12     13     15     22
Not much of a factor 65     60     60     74     68     61     66     65     67     62
DK/NA                 3      2      3      4      3      4      2      4      3      5
 
 

Demographic Summary

Additional Crosstabs