July 24, 2014 - Obama In Slump, But Clinton Scores In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Rubio Narrows GOP Gap As Jeb Bush Sags
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Even though President Barack Obama remains stuck in a swamp in Florida, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton dominates the 2016 presidential landscape, sweeping the Democratic field and topping former Gov. Jeb Bush and other possible Republican contenders by margins of 7 to 21 percentage points, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Gov. Bush gets 21 percent in a Republican presidential primary in Florida, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio with 18 percent, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 10 percent, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky with 8 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 7 percent and New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie with 6 percent. No other candidate tops 5 percent and 13 percent of Republicans remain undecided.

This compares with results of a May 1 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University, showing Bush leading the Republican pack with 27 percent, followed by Paul with 14 percent and Rubio with 11 percent.

Secretary Clinton takes 67 percent of Democratic presidential primary voters, compared to 64 percent May 1, followed by Vice President Joseph Biden and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts with 8 percent each. Another 11 percent are undecided.

"Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton may be taking some criticism recently in the news media and among some liberal Democratic precincts, but nothing has changed among average voters in Florida where she remains queen of the political prom," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Two-thirds of Democrats say she is their candidate for 2016 and none of the others even makes it into double digits. Sunshine Staters are on top when Florida Republicans are asked their top 2016 choice, but former Gov. Jeb Bush slips a little and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio just about caught up with him."

Florida voters back Clinton over Bush 49 - 42 percent in the 2016 White House race. The Democrat tops other Republicans by wider margins:
  • 53 - 39 percent over Rubio;
  • 53 - 37 percent over Paul;
  • 54 - 33 percent over Christie;
  • 51 - 38 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.
Independent voters back Clinton over Bush by a narrow 45 - 41 percent. Against other Republicans, her lead among independent voters is 16 to 20 percentage points.

Clinton's lead among women runs from 56 - 36 percent over Bush to 61 - 28 percent over Christie.

Florida voters give Clinton a 58 - 38 percent favorability rating, compared to 48 - 37 percent for Bush, 43 - 35 percent for Rubio, 32 - 28 percent for Paul, 35 - 36 percent for Christie and 33 - 30 percent for Ryan.

"Secretary Clinton leads the Republicans against whom she is matched by double digits with the exception of former Gov. Bush who trails her by 7 points," Brown said. "Inside the Beltway they may be talking about Mrs. Clinton's potential weaknesses should she run in 2016. But at this point in Florida, the nation's largest presidential swing state, her assets overwhelm any vulnerabilities." President Obama's Approval

Florida voters give President Obama a negative 44 - 52 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 46 - 50 percent May 1. Negative ratings are 7 - 92 percent among Republicans and 40 - 54 percent among independent voters, while Democrats approve 84 - 13 percent. Men give a negative 38 - 59 percent rating, compared to women's slightly positive 49 - 46 percent.

Voters approve 49 - 37 percent of the job Rubio is doing and give U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson a 45 - 32 percent score.

From July 17 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,251 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 451 Republicans and 457 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1a. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, Rick Perry, John Kasich and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Bush                 21%    23%    19%
Christie              6      5      6
Cruz                 10     11      9
Huckabee              7      5     10
Jindal                1      2      1
Paul                  8     13      3
Rubio                18     14     22
Ryan                  2      2      1
Walker                2      3      2
Perry                 5      4      5
Kasich                1      1      1
Santorum              1      2      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      4
DK/NA                13     11     15
 
TREND: (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, Rick Perry, John Kasich and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS........
                     Jul 24  May 01  Jan 31  Nov 22
                     2014    2014    2014    2013
 
Bush                 21      27      25      22
Christie              6       7       9      14
Cruz                 10       6       9      12
Huckabee              7       6      na      na
Jindal                1       1       3       3
Paul                  8      14      11       9
Rubio                18      11      16      18
Ryan                  2       6       5       6
Walker                2       4       5       2
Perry                 5      na      na      na
Kasich                1      na      na      na
Santorum              1      na      na      na
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       2       2       1
DK/NA                13      16      14      12
 
 
1b. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O'Malley, Brian Schweitzer and Elizabeth Warren, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Biden                 8%     7%     9%
Clinton              67     67     67
Cuomo                 1      1      1
O'Malley              -      1      -
Schweitzer            -      1      -
Warren                8     11      7
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      2
DK/NA                11      9     12
 
TREND: (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O'Malley, Brian Schweitzer and Elizabeth Warren, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..........
                     Jul 24  May 01  Jan 31  Nov 22
                     2014    2014    2014    2013
 
Biden                 8      11       9       9
Clinton              67      64      64      70
Cuomo                 1       1       1       2
O'Malley              -       1       1       1
Schweitzer            -       1      na      na
Warren                8       6       5       4
Warner               na      na       1       1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3       2       2
DK/NA                11      13      16      10
 
 
9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              49%     9%    90%    45%    41%    56%    57%    52%    46%    44%
Bush                 42     86      5     41     49     36     32     40     44     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      2      -      1      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      -      5      4      2      2      3      4      1
DK/NA                 5      1      5      8      4      6      8      4      5      6
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 24  May 01  Jan 31  Nov 22  Jun 19  Mar 21
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Clinton              49      49      49      47      50      51
Bush                 42      41      43      45      43      40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       2       1       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       2       2       3       2       2
DK/NA                 5       5       4       4       4       5
 
 
10. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              53%    12%    91%    52%    47%    58%    56%    57%    50%    49%
Rubio                39     82      4     34     45     33     35     35     41     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      2      -      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      -      4      3      2      5      2      2      2
DK/NA                 5      2      4      9      4      6      3      5      5      6
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 24  May 01  Jan 31  Nov 22  Jun 19  Mar 21
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Clinton              53      52      51      50      53      52
Rubio                39      40      41      43      41      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       1       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       2       3       1       1
DK/NA                 5       5       5       4       4       6
 
 
11. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              53%    14%    93%    51%    44%    61%    54%    55%    50%    53%
Paul                 37     77      3     35     46     29     35     35     40     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      2      1      1      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      -      4      4      2      5      3      3      1
DK/NA                 6      4      3      9      4      7      5      6      5      6
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 24  May 01  Jan 31  Nov 22
                     2014    2014    2014    2013
 
Clinton              53      55      53      51
Paul                 37      37      38      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3       2       2
DK/NA                 6       5       5       6
 
 
12. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              54%    14%    92%    51%    45%    61%    62%    57%    51%    49%
Christie             33     73      2     31     41     28     25     32     35     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      1      2      4      1      1      3      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      6      1      6      6      3      6      3      6      3
DK/NA                 6      4      5     10      5      7      7      5      6      7
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 24  May 01  Jan 31  Nov 22
                     2014    2014    2014    2013
 
Clinton              54      52      51      45
Christie             33      34      35      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       5       4       4
DK/NA                 6       7       7       8
 
 
13. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              51%    11%    91%    50%    44%    58%    53%    53%    49%    51%
Ryan                 38     82      3     33     44     32     30     35     40     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      -      1      -      1      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      2      5      4      2      4      4      4      1
DK/NA                 7      3      4     11      6      8     11      7      6      5
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 24  May 01  Jan 31  Nov 22
                     2014    2014    2014    2013
 
Clinton              51      56      52      50
Ryan                 38      36      39      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       2       2       3
DK/NA                 7       5       6       4
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            58%    21%    95%    57%    49%    66%    65%    62%    55%    54%
Unfavorable          38     77      3     36     46     31     31     35     41     42
Hvn't hrd enough      3      2      2      6      4      2      4      3      3      2
REFUSED               1      -      1      2      1      1      -      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? (*Low also 44% Jun 2007)
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 24  May 01  Jun 19  Mar 21  May 22  Mar 21  Apr 02
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2008    2013    2008*
 
Favorable            58      58      57      62      48      62      44
Unfavorable          38      37      38      33      43      33      45
Hvn't hrd enough      3       4       4       4       5       4       8
REFUSED               1       1       1       2       4       2       4
 
 
15. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            48%    77%    21%    51%    51%    46%    37%    45%    49%    57%
Unfavorable          37     14     62     33     35     39     44     36     39     31
Hvn't hrd enough     13      8     14     13     13     13     18     16     11      9
REFUSED               2      1      3      2      2      2      1      3      -      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 24  May 01  Jun 19  Mar 21
                     2014    2014    2013    2013
 
Favorable            48      53      54      50
Unfavorable          37      35      33      35
Hvn't hrd enough     13      11      11      13
REFUSED               2       1       2       2
 
 
16. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            43%    79%    13%    41%    49%    37%    36%    40%    43%    49%
Unfavorable          35     10     57     35     34     36     31     33     38     36
Hvn't hrd enough     21     10     28     23     16     25     33     26     18     13
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      1      2      -      1      1      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 44% May 2012)
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 24  May 01  Jun 19  Mar 21  May 23  Jun 19  Apr 16
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2012    2013*   2009
 
Favorable            43      43      44      41      44      44      10
Unfavorable          35      36      33      34      24      33      11
Hvn't hrd enough     21      19      22      24      31      22      78
REFUSED               1       1       1       1       1       1       2
 
 
17. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            32%    58%     9%    31%    41%    24%    25%    30%    37%    33%
Unfavorable          28     12     41     32     29     27     22     25     28     34
Hvn't hrd enough     39     29     49     36     29     47     53     44     33     32
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      2      -      1      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 24  May 01
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable            32      34
Unfavorable          28      31
Hvn't hrd enough     39      35
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
18. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            35%    54%    22%    32%    38%    32%    22%    36%    37%    38%
Unfavorable          36     26     44     38     37     35     25     36     41     37
Hvn't hrd enough     28     19     32     28     24     32     51     28     22     23
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      1      2      1      1      1      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 24  May 01
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable            35      37
Unfavorable          36      35
Hvn't hrd enough     28      26
REFUSED               2       2
 
 
19. Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            33%    65%     6%    31%    39%    28%    26%    31%    37%    36%
Unfavorable          30      7     50     34     32     29     28     28     32     32
Hvn't hrd enough     36     27     44     34     29     42     47     40     31     31
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      -      1      -      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 24  May 01
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable            33      33
Unfavorable          30      36
Hvn't hrd enough     36      30
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              49%    82%    24%    47%    55%    44%    42%    49%    49%    54%
Disapprove           37     10     58     38     34     39     35     36     39     35
DK/NA                14      7     18     15     11     17     23     16     12     11
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 24  May 01  Jan 30  Nov 22  Jun 19  May 23  Feb 03
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2012    2011
 
Approve              49      47      52      48      51      54      42
Disapprove           37      39      37      39      35      27      20
DK/NA                14      14      11      13      14      19      37
 
 
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              45%    34%    58%    48%    43%    47%    39%    49%    44%    46%
Disapprove           32     47     16     31     39     26     37     24     36     32
DK/NA                23     19     26     21     18     27     24     27     20     22
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Low also 42% Aug 2004)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 24  May 01  Jan 30  Nov 22  Jun 19  Feb 06  Aug 04
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2007    2011*
 
Approve              45      46      48      43      51      54      42
Disapprove           32      32      30      37      29      18      35
DK/NA                23      22      21      21      20      28      23
 
 
24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              44%     7%    84%    40%    38%    49%    46%    47%    46%    36%
Disapprove           52     92     13     54     59     46     46     49     51     61
DK/NA                 4      1      3      6      3      5      9      4      3      3
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 24  May 01  Jan 31  Nov 22  Jun 19  Feb 19  Sep 22
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2009    2011
 
Approve              44      46      42      40      47      64      39
Disapprove           52      50      53      57      48      23      57
DK/NA                 4       4       5       3       5      13       5
 
 

Demographic Summary

Additional Crosstabs