June 29, 2004 - Bush, Kerry Are In Dead Heat In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; President Gets Negative Approval
President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are locked in a 43 - 43 percent dead heat among Florida voters, with 5 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

With Nader out of the race, Sen. Kerry leads President Bush by a razor thin 46 - 44 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Without Nader, Kerry leads among Democrats 83 - 12 percent and among independent voters 43 - 40 percent. With Nader in the race, Democrats go 78 - 10 percent for Kerry with 5 percent for Nader, and independents go 40 - 37 percent for Kerry, with 9 percent for Nader.

Florida voters disapprove of the job President Bush is doing 52 - 46 percent. Republicans approve 88 - 11 percent, as Democrats disapprove 85 - 14 percent and independent voters disapprove 54 - 41 percent.

"With President Bush and Sen. Kerry in a dead heat in the new poll, Florida has taken on its expected roll as a key battleground state in the 2004 election," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Both Bush

and Kerry have sharply polarized the Florida voters. At this stage in the campaign, Florida voters don't like any of the candidates very much."

Florida voters give Bush a split 41 - 42 percent favorability rating, with 15 percent mixed. Kerry also gets a split 30 - 33 percent favorability rating, with 23 percent mixed and 14 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Nader gets a negative 14 - 28 percent favorability, with 19 percent mixed and 38 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, Florida voters say 49 - 42 percent. Men split 45 - 46 percent on the war, while women are opposed 52 - 39 percent. Republican voters back the war 76 - 14 percent, while Democrats are opposed 79 - 16 percent and independent voters are opposed 54 - 37 percent.

Given three choices, 38 percent of voters say the economy is the most important issue in deciding how they will vote, while 29 percent list terrorism and 25 percent say Iraq.

Kerry would do a better job on the economy, voters say 49 - 43 percent. Bush is best on Iraq, voters say 48 - 42 percent, and on terrorism, voters say 53 - 37 percent.

"On the issues, the edge goes to Kerry who is seen as the candidate best able to handle the economy - the most important issue in the campaign. Bush is hindered with an unpopular war: More Florida voters think going into Iraq was the wrong thing to do. But the President scores high as the candidate best able to handle the terrorism issue," Richards said.

From June 23 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,209 Florida registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is handling his job as Governor?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 47% 78% 21% 48% 54% 41% Disapprove 42 12 70 36 36 46 DK/NA 12 10 9 16 10 13



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 39% 63% 24% 34% 43% 36% Disapprove 42 22 59 43 41 43 DK/NA 18 15 16 23 15 21



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 48% 46% 55% 43% 50% 46% Disapprove 16 22 12 15 19 14 DK/NA 36 31 33 42 31 40



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Graham is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 58% 45% 73% 58% 58% 58% Disapprove 21 36 12 17 28 16 DK/NA 21 19 15 25 14 26



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 46% 88% 14% 41% 50% 42% Disapprove 52 11 85 54 47 56 DK/NA 2 1 2 4 2 2

Wht Blk Hisp

Approve 49% 17% 49% Disapprove 48 82 50 DK/NA 3 1 2



6. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


A lot 51% 51% 56% 47% 55% 47% Some 30 32 25 38 28 33 Only a little 14 11 13 12 12 15 None at all 5 5 5 3 5 5 DK/NA - - - - - -



7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Kerry 46% 7% 83% 43% 40% 50% Bush 44 87 12 40 50 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 8 5 4 13 7 9

Wht Blk Hisp

Kerry 41% 80% 38% Bush 49 11 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 DK/NA 7 9 11



8. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Kerry 43% 7% 78% 40% 38% 47% Bush 43 87 10 37 49 38 Nader 5 1 5 9 5 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 8 5 5 11 7 8

Wht Blk Hisp

Kerry 39% 76% 31% Bush 48 10 48 Nader 5 2 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 DK/NA 6 11 10



9. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 41% 82% 11% 34% 47% 36% Unfavorable 42 5 71 45 38 45 Mixed 15 12 13 21 14 16 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 3 - 1 2 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1

Wht Blk Hisp

Favorable 45% 14% 43% Unfavorable 38 67 39 Mixed 16 10 15 Hvn't hrd enough - 7 2 REFUSED 1 2 1



10. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 30% 7% 56% 24% 28% 31% Unfavorable 33 63 8 35 37 29 Mixed 23 18 23 27 23 23 Hvn't hrd enough 14 10 13 14 11 16 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 1

Wht Blk Hisp

Favorable 27% 47% 30% Unfavorable 37 8 27 Mixed 24 25 18 Hvn't hrd enough 12 20 21 REFUSED 1 - 3



11. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 14% 10% 11% 23% 15% 13% Unfavorable 28 33 29 25 30 27 Mixed 19 17 20 21 23 15 Hvn't hrd enough 38 39 39 31 30 45 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1



12. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Very satisfied 14% 27% 6% 11% 18% 10% Smwht satisfied 46 55 36 50 49 43 Smwht dissatisfied 23 12 32 22 20 26 Very dissatisfied 16 5 25 16 11 20 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1



13. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president -- the situation in Iraq, the economy, or terrorism?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Iraq 25% 14% 37% 19% 26% 24% Economy 38 28 46 41 34 41 Terrorism 29 49 10 33 32 26 DK/NA 8 9 6 7 7 9



14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bush 43% 84% 13% 37% 49% 38% Kerry 49 11 80 55 45 53 DK/NA 8 5 8 8 6 9



15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bush 48% 89% 16% 46% 53% 44% Kerry 42 8 71 46 40 44 DK/NA 9 3 13 8 7 12



16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bush 53% 91% 22% 52% 60% 48% Kerry 37 5 66 37 30 42 DK/NA 10 4 12 11 10 10



17. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Right thing 42% 76% 16% 37% 45% 39% Wrong thing 49 14 79 54 46 52 DK/NA 9 10 5 8 9 9



18. Would you describe the state of Florida's economy these days as -- excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Excellent 7% 13% 4% 6% 8% 7% Good 48 63 33 56 58 40 Not so good 31 18 44 25 26 35 Poor 11 4 17 9 6 14 DK/NA 3 2 3 4 1 4