August 12, 2004 - Kerry Pulls Ahead In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Many Concerned About Voting Machines
Democratic challenger John Kerry leads President George W. Bush 47 - 41 percent among Florida voters, with 4 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. With Nader out of the race, Sen. Kerry leads President Bush 49 - 42 percent.

Bush and Kerry were locked in a 43 - 43 percent dead heat, with 5 percent for Nader, in a June 29 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

Florida voters disapprove of the job President Bush is doing 54 - 44 percent, compared to a 52 - 46 percent disapproval June 29.

Among Bush backers, 78 percent say they are voting pro-Bush, with 18 percent anti-Kerry; 43 percent of Kerry supporters are anti-Bush, with 51 percent pro-Kerry.

"Sen. Kerry is holding on to a modest bounce from the Democratic convention, with his favorability rating jumping nine points since late June as more Florida voters get to know the Democratic candidate," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Kerry is seen as the candidate best able to handle the health care issue. The Democrat also is cutting sharply into the perception that the President is the stronger candidate when it comes to dealing with terrorism."

"Most Florida voters say their mind is made up with only 10 or 11 percent on each side saying they could change their mind," Richards added.

Offered four choices on the most important issue in the election:
  • 30 percent of voters list the economy;
  • 23 percent say terrorism;
  • 22 percent say health care;
  • 18 percent say the situation in Iraq.
Asked who would do the best job on these issues, Florida voters said:
  • 52 - 39 percent that Kerry would do better on the economy;
  • 59 - 31 percent that the Democrat would do better on health care;
  • 50 - 41 percent that Bush would do better on terrorism;
  • 48 - 45 percent that Bush would do better on Iraq.
Florida voters give Bush a negative 38 - 43 percent favorability rating, with 17 percent mixed. This compares to a split 41 - 42 percent favorability June 29.

Kerry gets a 39 - 31 percent favorability rating, with 21 percent mixed and 8 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. This compares to a split 30 - 33 percent favorability June 29.

This year, 97 percent of those surveyed plan to vote and 47 percent of these voters are "very confident" their vote for President will be counted correctly, including 52 percent of white voters, 30 percent of black voters and 39 percent of Hispanic voters.

Only 21 percent of voters are "very confident" in the new touch screen voting machines. Sixteen percent of voters plan to cast absentee ballots, with 43 percent of this group using a paper ballot because they distrust the voting system.

From August 5 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,094 Florida registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is handling his job as Governor?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Aug 12, 2004 45 44 11 Jun 29, 2004 47 42 12



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Aug 12, 2004 41 42 18 Jun 29, 2004 39 42 18



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Aug 12, 2004 42 18 40 Jun 29, 2004 48 16 36



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Graham is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Aug 12, 2004 56 21 23 Jun 29, 2004 58 21 21



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Aug 12, 2004 44 54 3 Jun 29, 2004 46 52 2



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                        JK      GWB     SmnEls  Wld'tVt DK/NA


Aug 12, 2004 49 42 1 1 7 Jun 29, 2004 46 44 1 1 8



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?

                        JK      GWB     RN      SmnEls  Wld'tVt DK/NA 


Aug 12, 2004 47 41 4 - 1 6 Jun 29, 2004 43 43 5 1 1 8



1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is handling his job as Governor?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 45% 82% 19% 39% 50% 41% Disapprove 44 11 71 47 40 47 DK/NA 11 7 10 13 10 11



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 41% 63% 26% 35% 49% 34% Disapprove 42 19 59 46 37 46 DK/NA 18 19 15 19 14 21



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 42% 39% 47% 39% 43% 42% Disapprove 18 23 14 16 18 18 DK/NA 40 39 39 45 40 41



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Graham is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 56% 44% 69% 54% 54% 57% Disapprove 21 34 11 18 23 19 DK/NA 23 21 20 28 22 24



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 44% 86% 12% 37% 48% 41% Disapprove 54 13 85 59 50 56 DK/NA 3 1 3 4 2 3

Wht Blk Hisp

Approve 52% 5% 41% Disapprove 46 91 58 DK/NA 3 5 1



6. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


A lot 56% 56% 60% 51% 57% 55% Some 29 27 30 32 27 30 Only a little 11 13 8 13 12 11 None at all 3 4 3 3 3 4 DK/NA - - - 2 1 -



7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Kerry 49% 9% 86% 51% 46% 52% Bush 42 87 9 34 46 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 7 3 3 12 7 7

Wht Blk Hisp

Kerry 42% 87% 57% Bush 50 3 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 DK/NA 7 8 3



8. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Kerry 47% 9% 84% 46% 43% 50% Bush 41 86 9 32 45 38 Nader 4 2 2 10 4 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 - DK/NA 6 3 4 10 6 7

Wht Blk Hisp

Kerry 40% 86% 55% Bush 49 3 35 Nader 4 2 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - DK/NA 6 8 3



9. (If candidate choice q8) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                        CANDIDATE CHOICE Q8
                                Kerry   Bush
                        Tot     Vtrs    Vtrs   
                                            
Made up                 87%     89%     87%    
Might change            12      10      11     
DK/NA                    1       1       2     




10a. (If Kerry voter q8) Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush?
                                            
                        Kerry
                        Voters
                             
For Kerry               51%  
Against Bush            43   
DK/NA                    6   




10b. (If Bush voter q8) Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry?

                        Bush
                        Voters


For Bush 78% Against Kerry 18 DK/NA 4



11. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 38% 76% 10% 30% 40% 36% Unfavorable 43 8 73 46 42 45 Mixed 17 15 15 21 17 17 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 2 2 1 2 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1

Wht Blk Hisp

Favorable 44% 5% 35% Unfavorable 37 70 50 Mixed 17 16 14 Hvn't hrd enough 1 8 - REFUSED 1 - 1



12. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 39% 9% 69% 37% 35% 43% Unfavorable 31 66 5 25 34 29 Mixed 21 18 16 29 22 20 Hvn't hrd enough 8 6 9 9 8 7 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 1 1

Wht Blk Hisp

Favorable 32% 70% 45% Unfavorable 38 3 25 Mixed 21 15 25 Hvn't hrd enough 8 11 4 REFUSED 1 1 1



13. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 12% 9% 12% 18% 14% 11% Unfavorable 25 24 26 24 30 21 Mixed 17 20 17 12 18 17 Hvn't hrd enough 43 44 42 44 36 49 REFUSED 3 4 3 1 2 3



14. Is your opinion of Dick Cheney favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 31% 66% 7% 24% 35% 28% Unfavorable 36 8 56 40 37 34 Mixed 18 14 19 22 17 19 Hvn't hrd enough 14 11 17 15 11 17 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1



15. Is your opinion of John Edwards favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 35% 8% 56% 41% 31% 38% Unfavorable 16 34 3 10 17 15 Mixed 15 19 10 17 13 16 Hvn't hrd enough 33 37 30 31 37 29 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1



16. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Very satisfied 10% 24% 2% 6% 10% 10% Smwht satisfied 35 57 16 33 40 30 Smwht dissatisfied 27 11 39 30 24 30 Very dissatisfied 27 8 42 30 26 29 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1



17. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president - the economy, the situation in Iraq, terrorism or health care?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Economy 30% 22% 31% 35% 35% 25% Iraq 18 13 21 18 16 19 Terrorism 23 41 14 15 25 21 Health care 22 17 29 21 16 27 DK/NA 8 7 5 11 8 7



18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bush 39% 80% 9% 32% 43% 36% Kerry 52 14 86 53 49 54 DK/NA 9 6 5 15 8 10



19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bush 48% 86% 14% 47% 53% 43% Kerry 45 11 80 42 41 49 DK/NA 7 3 7 11 6 9



20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bush 50% 88% 16% 48% 55% 45% Kerry 41 8 74 38 37 45 DK/NA 9 4 10 14 7 11



21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bush 31% 65% 5% 26% 32% 30% Kerry 59 22 90 64 61 58 DK/NA 10 14 5 10 8 12



22. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Right thing 45% 82% 21% 35% 51% 41% Wrong thing 49 14 73 57 45 52 DK/NA 6 5 6 7 4 7



23. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Excellent 3% 7% - 1% 3% 3% Good 38 64 18 35 42 35 Not so good 37 23 45 40 37 37 Poor 21 5 35 23 18 24 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 - 2



24. Did you vote for President in 2000, did something prevent you from voting, or did you choose not to vote for President in 2000?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Voted 82% 87% 81% 79% 81% 82% Didn't vote 14 9 16 17 13 15 COULDN'T/INELIGIBLE(VOL) 4 4 3 5 5 3 DK/NA - - - - - -

Wht Blk Hisp

Voted 85% 74% 73% Didn't vote 12 20 22 COULDN'T/INELIGIBLE(VOL) 3 6 6 DK/NA - - -



25. (If voted q24) How confident are you that your vote in the 2000 presidential election in Florida was counted correctly - very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not confident at all?

(* NOTE: Number of respondents is 75 or less in the Hispanic subgroup. Additional caution should be taken when interpreting the findings of this subgroup because of the larger margin of error.)



                        VOTED FOR PRESIDENT 2000 Q24...............


Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Very confident 42% 70% 22% 32% 45% 39% Somewhat confident 17 17 19 15 16 18 Not too confident 14 3 22 18 13 14 Not confident at all 21 2 33 29 18 23 DK/NA 6 8 4 7 7 6

Wht Blk Hisp*

Very confident 48% 20% 30% Somewhat confident 18 8 25 Not too confident 12 22 19 Not confident at all 16 46 22 DK/NA 7 4 3



26. Are you planning to vote in the 2004 presidential election?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 97% 98% 98% 95% 97% 98% No 1 1 - 3 1 1 DK/NA 2 2 1 3 2 1

Wht Blk Hisp

Yes 97% 100% 96% No 1 - - DK/NA 2 - 4



27. (If planning to vote q26) How confident are you that your vote in the 2004 presidential election in Florida will be counted correctly - very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not confident at all?

                        PLANNING TO VOTE FOR PRESIDENT 2004 Q26....


Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Very confident 47% 73% 33% 38% 50% 45% Somewhat confident 33 23 41 35 34 33 Not too confident 14 3 20 18 12 15 Not confident at all 5 - 6 8 3 6 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1

Wht Blk Hisp

Very confident 52% 30% 39% Somewhat confident 31 42 39 Not too confident 11 22 16 Not confident at all 4 6 4 DK/NA 1 - 2



28. How confident are you that the new touch screen voting machines introduced in some areas of the state will solve the voting problems that occurred in Florida in the 2000 election - very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not confident at all?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Very confident 21% 32% 13% 18% 18% 23% Somewhat confident 43 44 45 39 44 42 Not too confident 18 10 23 21 19 17 Not confident at all 12 5 13 17 12 11 DK/NA 7 8 6 6 7 7

Wht Blk Hisp

Very confident 23% 12% 15% Somewhat confident 42 48 43 Not too confident 16 25 24 Not confident at all 11 11 11 DK/NA 7 4 8



29. (If planning to vote q26) Do you intend to vote by absentee ballot in the 2004 presidential election?

                        PLANNING TO VOTE FOR PRESIDENT 2004 Q26....


Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Yes 16% 11% 18% 20% 16% 16% No 79 86 75 76 81 78 DK/NA 5 3 7 4 3 6

Wht Blk Hisp

Yes 11% 29% 24% No 85 63 72 DK/NA 4 8 4



30. (If voting absentee q29) Are you casting an absentee ballot because you are unable to get to the polls on election day or because you don't trust the voting system?

                        Absentee
                        Voters q29


Can't get to polls 47% Don't trust system 43 DK/NA 10