October 28, 2004 - Bush Has 3-Point Lead In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Republican Has Slight Lead In Senate Race
President George W. Bush has scratched out a narrow 49 - 46 percent lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry among Florida likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independent candidate Ralph Nader gets 1 percent, with 4 percent undecided.

This compares to a 48 - 47 percent matchup, with President Bush on top, in an October 21 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

Among the 16 percent of Florida voters who say they already have cast ballots, Kerry is ahead 56 - 39 percent.

Among registered voters backing Bush, 83 percent say they are voting mainly for the President. Among Kerry supporters, 50 percent are voting mainly for the Democrat and 44 percent are voting mainly against Bush.

"It's going right down to the wire again in Florida. In this kind of race, with so few voters left undecided, it comes down to three things - turnout, turnout and turnout," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"In a race this close, early voting will be a significant factor and right now Sen. Kerry is leading in this small category. This puts the pressure on the Bush campaign to get out more votes on election day."

Offered four choices, 29 percent of Florida voters say the economy is the most important issue in deciding how they will vote, with 27 percent who say terrorism, and 18 percent each for health care and the war in Iraq.

Asked who would do a better job on these issues, voters say:
  • 50 - 43 percent that Kerry would do a better job on the economy;
  • 55 - 37 percent that Bush would do a better job on terrorism;
  • 52 - 38 percent that Kerry would do a better job on health care;
  • 51 - 41 percent that Bush would do a better job on the situation in Iraq.
Voters say 48 - 44 percent that going to war in Iraq was the right thing to do. Senate Race

In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Mel Martinez has 49 percent of likely voters, while Democrat Betty Castor has 46 percent. This compares to a 47 - 47 percent tie among likely voters October 21.

Martinez gets a 31 - 24 percent favorability rating from registered voters, with 19 percent mixed and 23 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.

Castor gets a 31 - 20 percent favorability rating, with 20 percent mixed and 27 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.

"Martinez is edging ahead in the Senate race, with both candidates doing a good job telling the voters who they are and what they stand for. The get out the vote effort that is so critical in the presidential campaign also could decide the Senate race," Richards said.

From October 22 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,268 Florida registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 944 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush, or Nader? This table includes 'Leaners'

                        Likely Voters................................
                        JK      GWB     RN      SmnEls  Wld'tVt DK/NA 


Oct 28, 2004 46 49 1 - - 4 Oct 21, 2004 47 48 1 - - 4 Oct 7, 2004 44 51 - - - 5



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)

                        JK      GWB     RN      SmnEls  Wld'tVt DK/NA 


Oct 28, 2004 44 44 1 1 1 9 Oct 21, 2004 43 45 2 - - 10 Oct 7, 2004 42 46 1 - - 10 Sep 23, 2004 41 49 5 - - 5 Aug 12, 2004 47 41 4 - 1 6 Jun 29, 2004 43 43 5 1 1 8



TREND: If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Betty Castor the Democrat and Mel Martinez the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q4) As of today, do you lean more to Castor or Martinez? This table includes 'Leaners'

                        Likely Voters.......................
                        BC      MM      SmnEls  Wld'tVt DK/NA


Oct 28, 2004 46 49 - - 5 Oct 21, 2004 47 47 - - 5 Oct 7, 2004 47 48 - - 5



TREND: If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Betty Castor the Democrat and Mel Martinez the Republican for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)

                        BC      MM      SmnEls  Wld'tVt DK/NA


Oct 28, 2004 43 44 1 1 11 Oct 21, 2004 41 43 - 1 15 Oct 7, 2004 44 40 1 1 14 Sep 23, 2004 43 42 - 1 13



TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                        Right   Wrong   DK/NA


Oct 28, 2004 48 44 8 Oct 21, 2004 48 45 7 Oct 7, 2004 46 49 5 Sep 23, 2004 46 49 5 Aug 12, 2004 45 49 6 Jun 29, 2004 42 49 9



1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1)As of today, do you lean more to Kery, Bush, or Nader? This table includes 'Leaners'

                        Likely
                        Voters
                        
Kerry                   46%
Bush                    49
Nader                    1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -
DK/NA                    4




1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Kerry 44% 8% 82% 49% 41% 47% Bush 44 86 11 32 48 40 Nader 1 - - 4 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - - 1 1 DK/NA 9 5 7 13 8 10

North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE

Kerry 37% 42% 43% 41% 53% Bush 50 45 45 48 36 Nader 3 - 3 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - - - DK/NA 8 10 9 10 10

No Coll Coll PRES VOTE 2000 Degree Degree Lib Mod Con Gore Bush

Kerry 44% 46% 79% 54% 16% 84% 8% Bush 44 44 16 32 76 8 85 Nader 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - - 1 DK/NA 9 9 4 11 7 7 5

Age in years............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

Kerry 50% 43% 43% 43% Bush 35 48 47 46 Nader 3 1 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 - - DK/NA 12 5 8 10

Annual hshold income <30 30-50 50-100 >100K

Kerry 48% 47% 43% 41% Bush 38 42 51 51 Nader 3 2 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - - DK/NA 10 8 5 7



2a. (If Kerry voter q1) Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush?

                        Kerry 
                        Vtr q1


For Kerry 50% Against Bush 44 DK/NA 5



2b. (If Bush voter q1) Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry?

                        Bush  
                        Vtr q1


For Bush 83% Against Kerry 14 DK/NA 3



3. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Betty Castor the Democrat and Mel Martinez the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q3) As of today, do you lean more to Castor or Martinez? This table includes 'Leaners'

                        Likely
                        Voters
                        
Castor                  46%
Martinez                49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -
DK/NA                    5




3. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Betty Castor the Democrat and Mel Martinez the Republican for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Castor 43% 8% 77% 48% 38% 46% Martinez 44 82 13 37 51 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 11 10 9 12 9 14

North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE

Castor 33% 45% 39% 34% 54% Martinez 54 42 47 50 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 2 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 11 12 11 14 10



4. Is your opinion of Betty Castor favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 31% 9% 53% 32% 30% 32% Unfavorable 20 37 5 17 24 17 Mixed 20 22 17 19 18 21 Hvn't hrd enough 27 29 22 29 25 28 REFUSED 3 4 2 2 3 2



5. Is your opinion of Mel Martinez favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 31% 59% 12% 20% 35% 28% Unfavorable 24 5 41 30 25 24 Mixed 19 15 19 24 19 19 Hvn't hrd enough 23 18 26 25 18 27 REFUSED 3 3 2 2 3 2



6. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president; the situation in Iraq, the economy, terrorism or health care?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Iraq 18% 13% 20% 21% 21% 15% Economy 29 21 34 32 29 29 Terrorism 27 48 11 25 31 25 Health care 18 11 27 16 14 22 DK/NA 8 7 8 7 6 10



7. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bush 38% 77% 8% 22% 40% 36% Kerry 52 14 87 60 49 55 DK/NA 10 8 5 18 11 9



8. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bush 43% 83% 13% 30% 48% 40% Kerry 50 13 82 58 47 52 DK/NA 7 4 5 13 5 9



9. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bush 51% 89% 17% 42% 54% 48% Kerry 41 7 74 46 40 42 DK/NA 8 3 8 11 6 10



10. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bush 55% 92% 22% 47% 59% 51% Kerry 37 5 69 42 36 39 DK/NA 8 3 9 11 5 10



11. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Right thing 48% 82% 19% 43% 52% 44% Wrong thing 44 12 74 48 42 46 DK/NA 8 6 8 9 6 10



12. Which of the following applies to you -- you have already voted in this year's election, you plan to vote before Election Day, or you plan to vote on Election Day itself? If already voted - Have you already voted by mailing in an absentee ballot or by going to an early voting location? If plan to vote before election day - Do you plan to vote by absentee ballot or by going to an early voting location?

                           Tot  


Voted early absentee 7% Voted early at polls 9 Will vote early absentee 5 Will vote early at polls 19 Will vote election day 57 DK/NA(WILL NOT VOTE) 3