May 30, 2006 - Sen. Clinton Barely Hits 50% Against Relative Unknowns Quinnipiac University Florida Poll Finds; GOP Contenders Romney, Allen At 40% Vs Dem Leader
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, leading candidate for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, has difficulty getting above 50 percent in Florida against two relatively unknown Republican candidates, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Sen. Clinton defeats Sen. George Allen of Virginia in a trial heat 46 - 40 percent, while she tops Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 50 percent to 39 percent. Among independent voters, Sen. Clinton gets 44 percent against Allen and 45 percent against Romney, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Sen. Allen and Gov. Romney are considered likely candidates for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination, but neither is widely known outside their own states. Sen. Clinton, on the other hand, has virtual universal name recognition with American voters.

In the Quinnipiac University poll's previously reported trial heats in Florida, perhaps the nation's most important swing state in a presidential election, Sen. Clinton has also trailed the equally well-known Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. In a May 24 survey, Sen. Clinton trailed McCain 48 - 42 percent, and Giuliani 49 - 42 percent.

"Within the Democratic Party, there are some who argue that Sen. Clinton might have difficulty winning a general election. These results might give support to those voices," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The inability to top 50 percent in a poll far before an election by a well-known candidate matched against an unknown has historically indicated potential problems for the better-known candidate," said Brown.

The Clinton-Allen data comes from the poll's April survey of 951 registered voters in Florida and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent. The Clinton-Romney results comes from May Quinnipiac survey of 1,086 Florida voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks.

19. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for President in 2008 if the candidates were New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold, former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, former North Carolina Senator John Edwards and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh?

                        Registered
                        Democrats


Clinton 44% Feingold 2 Warner 3 Biden 8 Kerry 10 Edwards 17 Bayh 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 10

TREND: Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for President in 2008 if the candidates were ...New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold, former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, former North Carolina Senator John Edwards, and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh? (na = not asked)

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..
                        May 24  Apr 20  Feb 24
                        2006    2006    2006


Clinton 44 43 41% Feingold 2 2 2 Warner 3 4 5 Biden 8 8 8 Kerry 10 12 14 Edwards 17 16 14 Bayh 3 2 na SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 DK/NA 10 11 12



20. Who would you most like to see the Republicans nominate for President in 2008 if the candidates were Arizona Senator John McCain, Virginia Senator George Allen, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney?

                        Registered
                        Republicans


McCain 25% Allen 7 Frist 7 Giuliani 46 Romney 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 8

TREND: Who would you most like to see the Republicans nominate for President in 2008 if the candidates were Arizona Senator John McCain, Virginia Senator George Allen, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney? (na = not asked)

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                        May 24  Apr 20  Feb 24
                        2006    2006    2006


McCain 25 26 29 Allen 7 9 6 Frist 7 6 8 Giuliani 46 42 47 Romney 5 4 na SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - DK/NA 8 9 9



21. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican,for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 42% 8% 74% 36% 34% 50% Giuliani 49 87 17 53 56 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 3 1 DK/NA 6 2 6 8 6 6

TREND: If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        May 24  Apr 20  Feb 24
                        2006    2006    2006


Clinton 42 41 41 Giuliani 49 52 50 SMONE ELSE 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE 2 1 2 DK/NA 6 6 5

22. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 42% 12% 71% 36% 30% 52% McCain 48 82 20 52 59 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 2 1 DK/NA 6 3 7 7 6 6

TREND: If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        May 24  Apr 20  Feb 24
                        2006    2006    2006


Clinton 42 42 38 McCain 48 48 53 SMONE ELSE 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE 1 2 1 DK/NA 6 6 7



23. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 50% 16% 80% 45% 38% 60% Romney 39 78 11 38 50 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 3 1 DK/NA 8 4 7 12 8 8

North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE

Clinton 48% 40% 43% 46% 65% Romney 40 49 44 51 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 - 2 DK/NA 8 7 10 1 8



23. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and George Allen the Republican for whom would you vote? (This question was asked in a previous Florida poll conducted April 11-17, 2006)

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 46% 10% 81% 44% 40% 52% Allen 40 79 10 34 46 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 5 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 1 DK/NA 10 9 6 15 10 11

North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE

Clinton 39% 44% 41% 23% 61% Allen 52 41 42 55 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 4 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 6 11 11 21 10