October 11, 2006 - Nelson Leads Harris 61 - 33 In Florida Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say U.S. Is Losing The War In Iraq
In the Florida Senate race, Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson has a commanding 61 - 33 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris among likely voters, including leaners, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Six percent are undecided and 18 percent of likely voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind in the next four weeks.

Sen. Nelson leads Rep. Harris 56 - 31 percent among registered voters, with 11 percent undecided. This compares to a 61 - 24 percent Nelson lead in a July 27 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest survey, Republican likely voters back Harris 67 - 27 percent, while Democrats back Nelson 85 - 10 percent and independent voters back Nelson 65 - 26 percent.

"Congresswoman Harris has made some progress in her race against Sen. Nelson, but with four weeks until the election, it isn't nearly enough to make her a serious threat to the incumbent," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Floridians, by almost a two-to-one margin, still view her unfavorably - an indication of just how difficult a task she faces. In order to win, she'll have to convince Floridians she is not who they think she is."

Only 20 percent of Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Harris, with 37 percent unfavorable, 16 percent mixed and 26 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Nelson gets a 31 - 12 percent favorability, with 19 percent mixed and 38 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

"For a politician who has held statewide office for more than a decade, Sen. Nelson's profile is surprisingly fuzzy. Four in 10 voters say they need to know more about him before they can decide if they view him favorably or unfavorably," Brown said.

"But it doesn't matter because Congresswoman Harris is so weak. She is losing a quarter of the Republican vote and more than 60 percent of the independent vote and getting only half of the white evangelical vote - a recipe for electoral disaster for a Republican in Florida."

Bush Approval

Florida voters disapprove 59 - 37 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing. Voters say 55 - 28 percent that the U.S. is losing the war in Iraq, and 44 - 39 percent that the U.S. is losing the war on worldwide terrorism.

From October 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 968 Florida registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The survey includes 783 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                                       WtBrnAgn
                  Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp  Evngel


Approve 43% 38% 53% 39% 44% 44% 34% 41% Disapprove 26 33 19 28 25 32 28 29 DK/NA 31 29 28 33 31 24 38 30

North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom

Approve 45% 41% 49% 45% 37% 47% 39% Disapprove 25 29 24 24 27 26 26 DK/NA 30 30 27 31 36 27 35

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Also 50% on 4/14/05 & 2/25/05)

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Oct 11  Jul 27  Jun 30  May 25  Apr 20  Apr 20  Aug 12
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2006*   2004


Approve 43 44 45 49 50 50 42 Disapprove 26 25 23 23 19 19 18 DK/NA 31 30 32 27 30 30 40



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                                                                       WtBrnAgn
                  Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp  Evngel


Approve 37% 76% 10% 31% 41% 17% 36% 60% Disapprove 59 22 88 64 56 80 60 35 DK/NA 4 3 2 5 3 3 4 4

North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom

Approve 46% 44% 37% 47% 25% 42% 33% Disapprove 52 52 58 48 72 54 63 DK/NA 1 4 6 5 3 3 4

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Oct 11  Jul 27  Jun 29  May 24  Apr 20  Sep 23  Apr 20
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2004    2006  


Approve 37 39 38 36 35 50 35 Disapprove 59 58 60 60 60 47 60 DK/NA 4 3 3 3 5 3 5



9. Is your opinion of United States Senator Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                       WtBrnAgn
                  Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp  Evngel


Favorable 31% 20% 41% 32% 34% 28% 14% 27% Unfavorable 12 20 6 11 13 7 11 18 Mixed 19 23 17 18 19 16 26 21 Hvn't hrd 38 36 36 38 34 49 48 35 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 -

Likely North/ Voters PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom

Favorable 36 32% 25% 40% 32% 26% 33% 29% Unfavorable 14 12 16 11 17 8 15 9 Mixed 18 17 20 10 15 26 15 22 Hvn't hrd 31 38 38 38 36 37 35 39 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 2 1 1

TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Oct 11  Jul 27  Jun 30  May 25  Apr 20  Feb 24  Aug 31
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2005


Favorable 31 40 40 37 40 37 35 Unfavorable 12 12 11 10 10 11 8 Mixed 19 19 20 18 19 17 24 Hvn't hrd enough 38 28 29 33 31 34 31 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 1



10. Is your opinion of Congresswoman Katherine Harris favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                                                                       WtBrnAgn
                  Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp  Evngel


Favorable 20% 31% 8% 20% 19% 15% 29% 31% Unfavorable 37 20 49 44 41 27 17 24 Mixed 16 26 11 14 17 15 18 17 Hvn't hrd 26 23 31 21 22 43 35 28 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 - - 1

Likely North/ Voters PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom

Favorable 21 22% 20% 23% 29% 13% 23% 16% Unfavorable 41 31 36 36 38 43 34 40 Mixed 16 20 21 12 15 14 16 17 Hvn't hrd 21 27 23 29 18 28 26 26 REFUSED 1 - - - - 2 1 1

TREND: Is your opinion of Congresswoman Katherine Harris favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        Oct 11  Jul 27  Jun 30  May 25  Apr 20  Feb 24  Aug 31
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2005


Favorable 20 18 20 20 17 26 22 Unfavorable 37 39 34 39 37 27 30 Mixed 16 16 15 16 15 13 15 Hvn't hrd enough 26 25 29 24 30 32 32 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 1 1



11. If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Katherine Harris the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                       WtBrnAgn
                  Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp  Evngel


Nelson 56% 22% 84% 58% 56% 75% 32% 39% Harris 31 61 9 25 32 16 44 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 4 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 - - 2 - - 2 DK/NA 11 12 5 16 10 5 24 11

North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom

Nelson 48% 53% 55% 56% 62% 55% 56% Harris 38 33 34 37 21 37 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 13 11 8 5 13 7 14

TREND: If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Katherine Harris the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Oct 11  Jul 27  Jun 30  May 25  Apr 20  Feb 24  Nov 15
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2005


Nelson 56 61 59 58 56 53 55 Harris 31 24 26 25 27 31 31 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 11 11 13 14 14 14 12



11. If the 2006 election for senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Katherine Harris the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q11) As of today, do you lean more toward Nelson or Harris? This table includes Leaners.

                  LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                 WtBrnAgn
                  Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evngel


Nelson 61% 27% 85% 65% 58% 64% 41% Harris 33 67 10 26 39 27 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 5 9 4 9 9

North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE

Nelson 53% 57% 60% 57% 71% Harris 40 38 34 40 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 7 5 6 3 8



11a. (If candidate choice given q11)Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                  LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q11
                          CAND OF CHOICE Q11
                  Tot     BN      KH 
                                     
Made up           81%     83%     76%
Might change      18      16      23 
DK/NA              1       1       1 




12. (Nelson supporters) Is your vote more for Nelson or more against Harris?

                  NELSON SUPPORTERS..
                  LIKELY VOTERS......
                  Tot     Men     Wom


For Nelson 55% 61% 50% Against Harris 38 33 41 DK/NA 8 6 9



13. (Harris supporters) Is your vote more for Harris or more against Nelson?

                  HARRIS SUPPORTERS
                  LIKELY VOTERS....
                  Tot     Men     Wom


For Harris 64% 62% 67% Against Nelson 28 30 26 DK/NA 8 8 7



19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?

                                                                       WtBrnAgn
                  Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp  Evngel


Approve 34% 72% 9% 26% 38% 12% 36% 56% Disapprove 61 22 88 68 57 86 56 37 DK/NA 5 7 3 6 5 3 8 7

North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom

Approve 43% 40% 34% 39% 23% 41% 29% Disapprove 50 55 62 55 72 55 65 DK/NA 7 5 4 6 4 4 6

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?

                        Oct 11  Jun 29  May 24  Apr 20  Feb 24  Nov 16  Aug 31
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2005    2005


Approve 34 36 36 34 41 31 39 Disapprove 61 59 60 63 54 64 55 DK/NA 5 5 4 4 5 5 6



20. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                                                                       WtBrnAgn
                  Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp  Evngel


Right thing 37% 71% 12% 31% 41% 8% 43% 55% Wrong thing 58 22 85 63 53 90 55 36 DK/NA 6 6 3 7 6 2 2 8

North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom

Right thing 48% 41% 33% 44% 27% 44% 30% Wrong thing 48 50 59 51 70 54 61 DK/NA 4 9 8 4 3 2 9

TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Oct 11  Jun 29  May 24  Apr 20  Feb 24  Aug 31  Oct 28
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2005    2004


Right thing 37 38 37 36 42 41 48 Wrong thing 58 55 58 58 51 53 44 DK/NA 6 6 5 6 6 6 8



21. Is the United States winning or losing the war in Iraq?

                                                                       WtBrnAgn
                  Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp  Evngel


Winning 28% 57% 9% 21% 30% 9% 41% 43% Losing 55 22 79 61 52 88 41 33 DK/NA 17 21 13 18 18 3 18 24

North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom

Winning 35% 38% 26% 35% 17% 37% 21% Losing 50 41 53 45 71 51 58 DK/NA 15 21 21 20 12 12 21



22. Is the United States winning or losing the war on worldwide terrorism?

                                                                       WtBrnAgn
                  Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp  Evngel


Winning 39% 66% 20% 34% 40% 22% 43% 52% Losing 44 19 65 45 41 64 45 28 DK/NA 17 15 15 21 18 14 12 20

North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom

Winning 45% 46% 36% 41% 31% 46% 32% Losing 38 36 45 34 56 41 47 DK/NA 17 18 19 25 13 13 21