May 24, 2013 - Hillary Clinton Tops Rubio, Paul In 2016 Iowa Pres Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Know Little About U.S. Senate Candidates

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If the 2016 presidential election were today, Iowa voters back former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton over Republican Senators Marco Rubio of Florida or Rand Paul of Kentucky, but Vice President Joseph Biden trails Rand and ties Rubio in the Hawkeye State, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Iowa voters disapprove 50 - 45 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

And, the 2014 race for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat at this point features a bunch of candidates who are unknown to most Iowa voters.

In an early look at the 2016 White House race, Ms. Clinton would defeat Sen. Rubio of Florida 48 - 37 percent. In a race against Sen. Paul of Kentucky, she would have a very small 46 - 42 percent margin.

Vice President Biden gets 39 percent to Rubio's 40 percent and he trails Paul 44 - 39 percent.

"The major difference between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vice President Joseph Biden is that she runs much better among independent voters, although Sen. Rand Paul runs better among that key group than either Democrat," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"In general Sen. Paul appears to be the better GOP candidate at this point in Iowa. Part of the reason may be the publicity from his recent high-profile visit to the state, but more likely is that he begins with a solid base of support - the folks who voted for his father in the 2008 and 2012 caucuses."

In a Clinton-Paul race, she carries Democrats 89 - 4 percent, while he leads 82 - 9 percent among Republicans and 44 - 38 percent among independent voters. Clinton wins women 53 - 34 percent, but loses men 49 - 39 percent.

Iowa independent voters back Paul over Biden 45 - 29 percent, while the vice president takes Democrats 80 - 7 percent, but lose Republicans 84 - 6 percent. Paul leads among men 51 - 34 percent and loses women 43 - 37 percent.

President Obama, who has carried Iowa in both of his White House campaigns, gets a 53 - 39 percent disapproval rating from independent voters. He gets an overwhelming 83 - 12 percent thumbs up from Democrats and an equally overwhelming 85 - 10 percent thumbs down from Republicans. There is a gender gap as men disapprove of the president 54 - 41 percent while women are divided with 48 percent approving and 45 percent disapproving.

"The president's approval numbers may reflect the news media coverage in recent days over the IRS, Benghazi and Justice Department allegations," said Brown. "As will be true nationally, the question is whether his numbers will drop if these matters remain the focus of news media attention."

The decision by U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin not to seek re-election, and the decision by many better known candidates not to seek the seat, leaves a group of potential candidates so unknown to voters that more than half don't know enough about any of them to have an opinion.

The best known of the bunch is the one Democrat in the race, Congressman Bruce Braley who is viewed favorably by 27 percent and unfavorably by 14 percent while 57 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

But Braley is well-known compared to possible Republican contenders. The percentages of Iowa voters who don't know enough about them to form an opinion of Matt Whitaker, Joni Ernst, Matt Schultz, David Young and A.J. Spiker ranges from 81 to 94 percent.

"Iowans can look forward to a lot of television ads as all these candidates try to introduce themselves to the folks who have no idea who they are," said Brown. "Braley is clearly better known than the Republicans, but he too is an unknown to a majority of Iowa voters."

From May 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,411 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              45%    10%    83%    39%    41%    48%
Disapprove           50     85     12     53     54     45
DK/NA                 6      4      5      8      4      7
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Approve              48%    43%    46%    46%    43%    52%    39%    44%    46%
Disapprove           48     50     47     51     54     39     56     51     49
DK/NA                 4      7      7      3      3      9      5      5      5
 
 
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Clinton              48%    11%    89%    41%    43%    53%
Rubio                37     80      3     36     44     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      1      5      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      5      4      3
DK/NA                 9      7      5     12      7     11
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              46%    48%    41%    45%    42%    52%    32%    49%
Rubio                46     35     45     38     45     32     53     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      2      2      3      2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      4      3      1      4      3      4      2
DK/NA                 5     11     10     15      7     11     10      9
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Clinton              48%    48%    51%    49%    42%    51%    45%    48%    48%
Rubio                45     35     33     37     52     32     37     39     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      3      3      1      4      5      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      4      4      2      2      5      5      2      3
DK/NA                 5     10      9      9      3      8      8      9      9
 
 
8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Biden                39%     6%    78%    32%    36%    42%
Rubio                40     80      7     40     47     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      2      3      6      5      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      2      6      3      5
DK/NA                13      9     10     16      9     16
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Biden                38%    39%    33%    35%    35%    41%    25%    39%
Rubio                49     37     47     41     48     34     55     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      4      3      3      4      3      1      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      4      3      2      3      4      4      3
DK/NA                 9     15     14     20     10     17     15     14
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Biden                39%    39%    41%    45%    32%    44%    38%    38%    39%
Rubio                47     37     36     38     54     37     37     42     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      4      5      3      3      5      6      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      4      2      3      3      5      4      4
DK/NA                 8     15     14     12      9     11     14     12     14
 
 
9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Clinton              46%     9%    89%    38%    39%    53%
Paul                 42     82      4     44     49     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      2      4      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      1      4      3      2
DK/NA                 7      4      4     10      6      8
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              47%    45%    40%    46%    38%    53%    30%    49%
Paul                 43     42     50     40     51     35     58     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      2      2      3      3      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      3      2      1      3      2      4      2
DK/NA                 5      7      5     11      6      7      5      8
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Clinton              49%    45%    48%    47%    41%    42%    44%    48%    48%
Paul                 42     41     40     39     53     46     41     42     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      3      3      1      2      5      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      3      3      1      1      3      1      2      5
DK/NA                 5      8      6      9      3      7      8      6      8
 
 
10. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Biden                39%     6%    80%    29%    34%    43%
Paul                 44     84      7     45     51     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      2      6      4      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      2      3      6      4      3
DK/NA                11      6      9     14      8     13
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Biden                42%    36%    32%    38%    33%    42%    24%    41%
Paul                 45     44     52     42     52     38     58     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      2      3      3      4      2      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      4      3      2      5      3      4      3
DK/NA                 8     12     10     15      8     13     12     11
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Biden                42%    37%    40%    41%    35%    38%    38%    38%    40%
Paul                 44     44     42     42     56     45     44     45     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      4      3      2      3      5      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      4      2      2      5      1      4      5
DK/NA                 8     12     10     12      6      8     13     10     12
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Bruce Braley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            27%    13%    41%    28%    30%    24%
Unfavorable          14     23      4     14     17     10
Hvn't hrd enough     57     61     52     56     51     62
REFUSED               2      3      2      2      1      4
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Matt Whitaker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             8%     8%     4%    11%    10%     6%
Unfavorable           4      2      5      5      6      3
Hvn't hrd enough     86     88     90     83     82     90
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Joni Ernst favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             5%     4%     5%     5%     6%     3%
Unfavorable           3      1      3      4      4      2
Hvn't hrd enough     92     94     91     91     89     94
REFUSED               1      -      1      -      1      1
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Matt Schultz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            11%    13%     5%    14%    15%     7%
Unfavorable           7      3     11      8     10      5
Hvn't hrd enough     81     84     82     77     74     87
REFUSED               1      -      2      1      -      2
 
 
15. Is your opinion of David Young favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             3%     4%     3%     2%     4%     1%
Unfavorable           2      1      2      1      2      2
Hvn't hrd enough     94     94     94     96     93     96
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      1      1
 
 
16. Is your opinion of AJ Spiker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             2%     3%     1%     2%     3%     2%
Unfavorable           6      4      6      7      9      3
Hvn't hrd enough     91     93     92     89     88     95
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1
 
 

Demographic Summary