March 13, 2014 - Clinton Up As Obama, Christie Crash In Iowa, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrat Braley Leads In U.S. Senate Race
PDF format

In an early look at the 2016 presidential race in Iowa, Secretary Clinton leads Gov. Christie 48 - 35 percent, reversing a 45 - 40 percent Christie lead December 17, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Secretary Clinton has substantial leads over other Republican contenders, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds:
  • 49 - 39 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
  • 51 - 35 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas;
  • 51 - 37 percent over former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida.
Independent voters shift from 44 - 35 percent for Christie in December to 46 - 32 percent for Clinton today. In fact, Clinton has leads of 12 to 22 percentage points among independent voters in the other matchups.

Clinton's dominance comes even as President Barack Obama gets a negative 39 - 57 percent approval rating in Iowa, compared to a negative 38 - 59 percent December 18.

Obama gets negative grades of 5 - 93 percent from Republicans and 37 - 59 percent from independent voters, while Democrats approve 77 - 17 percent. Negative grades are 35 - 61 percent among men and 43 - 53 percent among women.

"Politics is a team sport and the head of the blue team, President Barack Obama, isn't doing well in the eyes of Iowans. But that doesn't seem to be hurting teammate Hillary Clinton who swamps potential 2016 Republican competitors among the same electorate," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"So much, at least for now, for conventional wisdom that as the president's popularity goes, so goes Democratic hopes for 2016," Brown added.

Iowa voters say 55 - 38 percent that Clinton would make a good president, the only listed candidate to get a positive score.

Christie would not make a good president, voters say 41 - 36 percent, reversing a positive 46 - 30 percent score December 17.

"Who said, 'All politics is local?' Secretary Clinton is benefitting from the fallout after a traffic jam a thousand miles away," said Brown. "When Quinnipiac University surveyed Iowans last December, Gov. Christopher Christie was the lead reindeer. But after the coverage of the George Washington Bridge lane closures, his nose is not so bright. Like the other GOP hopefuls, he now trails Clinton by double digits." U.S. Senate Race

U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley holds double-digit leads over most likely Republican contenders:
  • 42 - 30 percent over former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker;
  • 42 - 29 percent over State Sen. Joni Ernst;
  • 40 - 31 percent over businessman Mark Jacobs;
  • 42 - 27 percent over radio commentator Sam Clovis.
Congressman Braley gets a 35 - 18 percent favorability rating, while 46 percent of Iowa voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For the Republicans, 77 to 85 percent of voters don't know enough about the candidates to form an opinion.

"The curse of President Obama's low approval does not seem to be hurting U.S. Rep. Braley as he campaigns for the U.S. Senate seat which opens up as Sen. Tom Harkin retires," Brown said.

Iowa voters approve 62 - 27 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley is doing and approve 55 - 31 percent of Sen. Harkin.

From March 5 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,411 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Matt Whitaker the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Braley               42%     6%    87%    36%    39%    45%    39%    39%    42%    49%
Whitaker             30     68      1     27     34     27     25     33     32     29
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      -      5      2      3      4      3      2      1
DK/NA                24     24     12     31     24     25     31     25     22     21
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Matt Whitaker the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Mar 13  Dec 18
                     2014    2013
 
Braley               42      43
Whitaker             30      40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       3
DK/NA                24      14
 
 
5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Joni Ernst the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Braley               42%     8%    87%    36%    40%    44%    41%    39%    42%    48%
Ernst                29     68      2     25     33     27     22     30     33     30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      -      5      2      3      4      3      2      2
DK/NA                25     23     11     33     25     26     32     27     23     20
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Joni Ernst the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Mar 13  Dec 18
                     2014    2013
 
Braley               42      44
Ernst                29      38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2
DK/NA                25      15
 
 
6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Mark Jacobs the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Braley               40%     6%    85%    35%    38%    43%    37%    35%    41%    49%
Jacobs               31     70      3     26     33     29     22     34     33     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      -      -      5      2      3      3      3      2      1
DK/NA                25     24     12     33     26     25     36     27     23     17
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Mark Jacobs the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Mar 13  Dec 18
                     2014    2013
 
Braley               40      46
Jacobs               31      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       2
DK/NA                25      14
 
 
7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Sam Clovis the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Braley               42%     8%    85%    38%    40%    45%    40%    37%    44%    51%
Clovis               27     66      1     22     31     25     19     28     31     29
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      1      2      1      2      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      -      5      2      4      4      3      3      1
DK/NA                26     22     14     35     26     26     35     30     21     19
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Sam Clovis the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Mar 13  Dec 18
                     2014    2013
 
Braley               42      45
Clovis               27      34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3
DK/NA                26      17
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Bruce Braley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            35%    11%    63%    33%    36%    34%    34%    32%    34%    41%
Unfavorable          18     36      -     17     21     14     10     20     22     15
Hvn't hrd enough     46     51     36     48     42     50     54     48     42     41
REFUSED               1      2      -      2      1      2      2      -      1      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bruce Braley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Mar 13  Jul 22  May 24
                     2014    2013    2013
 
Favorable            35      27      27
Unfavorable          18      13      14
Hvn't hrd enough     46      58      57
REFUSED               1       2       2
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Matt Whitaker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            13%    23%     4%    13%    15%    11%    10%    14%    16%    10%
Unfavorable           5      1     11      4      6      5      4      5      5      6
Hvn't hrd enough     81     76     84     83     79     83     85     80     78     84
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      -      1      -      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Matt Whitaker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Mar 13  Jul 22  May 24
                     2014    2013    2013
 
Favorable            13       8       8
Unfavorable           5       4       4
Hvn't hrd enough     81      88      86
REFUSED               1       -       1
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Joni Ernst favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            13%    25%     5%    13%    15%    11%     9%    14%    16%    13%
Unfavorable           6      2     12      6      7      5      5      6      7      6
Hvn't hrd enough     80     74     82     81     77     83     86     80     76     80
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1      1      -      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Joni Ernst favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Mar 13  Jul 22  May 24
                     2014    2013    2013
 
Favorable            13       6       5
Unfavorable           6       2       3
Hvn't hrd enough     80      92      92
REFUSED               1       1       1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Mark Jacobs favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            15%    29%     4%    14%    17%    14%    12%    15%    19%    13%
Unfavorable           7      4     13      6      9      6      7      7      7      8
Hvn't hrd enough     77     67     83     79     73     80     80     77     73     78
REFUSED               1      -      -      1      1      -      1      -      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mark Jacobs favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Mar 13  Jul 22
                     2014    2013
 
Favorable            15       5
Unfavorable           7       1
Hvn't hrd enough     77      94
REFUSED               1       -
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Sam Clovis favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable             8%    16%     3%     8%    10%     7%     7%     8%    10%     7%
Unfavorable           6      2      9      6      8      5      6      6      6      6
Hvn't hrd enough     85     82     88     85     82     88     86     85     83     86
REFUSED               1      -      -      1      1      -      1      -      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Sam Clovis favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Mar 13  Jul 22
                     2014    2013
 
Favorable             8       4
Unfavorable           6       3
Hvn't hrd enough     85      93
REFUSED               1       -
 
 
13. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              48%     7%    88%    46%    39%    56%    46%    48%    48%    49%
Christie             35     75      5     32     40     32     35     33     39     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      4      -      3      4      1      2      4      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      6      2      4      6      2      3      6      3      3
DK/NA                10      8      4     15     12      9     15      9      7     12
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Mar 13  Dec 17  Jul 22
                     2014    2013    2013
 
Clinton              48      40      41
Christie             35      45      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3       3       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       4       4
DK/NA                10       8      11
 
 
14. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              49%     7%    89%    48%    41%    55%    46%    50%    48%    50%
Paul                 39     83      4     36     47     32     40     37     41     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      1      -      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      2      3      2      3      1      3      3      2
DK/NA                 9      7      5     12      9      9     13      8      7      9
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Mar 13  Dec 17  May 24
                     2014    2013    2013
 
Clinton              49      45      46
Paul                 39      44      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       3
DK/NA                 9       7       7
 
 
15. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              51%     9%    93%    52%    44%    57%    53%    52%    49%    52%
Cruz                 35     78      2     30     42     29     33     33     39     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      2      1      2      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      1      3      2      3      1      3      3      2
DK/NA                10     10      3     13     10     10     11     10      8     11
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Mar 13  Dec 17
                     2014    2013
 
Clinton              51      48
Cruz                 35      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3
DK/NA                10       7
 
 
16. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              51%     9%    91%    52%    44%    58%    58%    49%    49%    51%
Bush                 37     79      4     33     42     32     30     37     39     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      2      3      1      3      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      1      4      4      2      -      4      3      2
DK/NA                 8      9      3      9      8      8      9      8      7      9
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Mar 13  Dec 17
                     2014    2013
 
Clinton              51      47
Bush                 37      40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3
DK/NA                 8       7
 
 
17. Do you think Chris Christie would make a good President or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  36%    52%    19%    39%    39%    33%    32%    38%    41%    31%
No                   41     26     59     39     40     42     39     41     41     43
DK/NA                23     21     22     23     21     24     29     21     17     26
 
TREND: Do you think Chris Christie would make a good President or not?
                     Mar 13  Dec 17
                     2014    2013
 
Yes                  36      46
No                   41      30
DK/NA                23      24
 
 
18. Do you think Hillary Clinton would make a good President or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  55%    20%    92%    55%    49%    61%    61%    56%    52%    55%
No                   38     75      5     37     44     33     32     37     44     36
DK/NA                 7      5      4      9      7      6      7      7      5      9
 
TREND: Do you think Hillary Clinton would make a good President or not?
                     Mar 13  Dec 17
                     2014    2013
 
Yes                  55      53
No                   38      42
DK/NA                 7       5
 
 
19. Do you think Joe Biden would make a good President or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  25%     8%    48%    20%    25%    25%    23%    22%    26%    29%
No                   62     82     37     68     64     60     58     65     64     58
DK/NA                13     10     15     12     12     15     19     13     10     14
 
TREND: Do you think Joe Biden would make a good President or not?
                     Mar 13  Dec 17
                     2014    2013
 
Yes                  25      29
No                   62      62
DK/NA                13       9
 
 
20. Do you think Rand Paul would make a good President or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  36%    64%     8%    37%    43%    29%    44%    32%    38%    32%
No                   41     15     71     38     39     42     28     43     43     44
DK/NA                24     21     21     25     18     29     28     26     19     23
 
TREND: Do you think Rand Paul would make a good President or not?
                     Mar 13  Dec 17
                     2014    2013
 
Yes                  36      38
No                   41      42
DK/NA                24      20
 
 
21. Do you think Ted Cruz would make a good President or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  24%    50%     3%    23%    31%    18%    31%    20%    28%    21%
No                   40     15     68     38     42     38     29     44     43     40
DK/NA                35     35     29     40     27     44     40     36     30     39
 
TREND: Do you think Ted Cruz would make a good President or not?
                     Mar 13  Dec 17
                     2014    2013
 
Yes                  24      28
No                   40      42
DK/NA                35      30
 
 
22. Do you think Jeb Bush would make a good President or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  33%    66%    11%    29%    37%    29%    28%    33%    34%    34%
No                   44     15     71     44     43     45     42     44     46     42
DK/NA                23     19     19     27     20     26     30     23     20     24
 
TREND: Do you think Jeb Bush would make a good President or not?
                     Mar 13  Dec 17
                     2014    2013
 
Yes                  33      36
No                   44      47
DK/NA                23      18
 
 
25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Grassley is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              62%    85%    44%    62%    64%    60%    65%    60%    62%    61%
Disapprove           27      7     43     27     26     27     13     26     33     31
DK/NA                12      8     13     12     10     13     23     14      5      8
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Grassley is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Mar 13  Dec 18  Jul 19  May 23
                     2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Approve              62      60      59      52
Disapprove           27      30      29      33
DK/NA                12      10      12      15
 
 
26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Harkin is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              55%    37%    79%    54%    57%    54%    52%    55%    56%    58%
Disapprove           31     53     10     31     33     29     20     29     37     33
DK/NA                14     10     12     15     11     17     28     15      7     10
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Harkin is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Mar 13  Dec 18  Jul 19  May 23
                     2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Approve              55      50      50      47
Disapprove           31      38      35      35
DK/NA                14      12      15      18
 
 
27. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              39%     5%    77%    37%    35%    43%    38%    34%    42%    43%
Disapprove           57     93     17     59     61     53     56     61     56     52
DK/NA                 4      1      6      5      4      4      6      5      3      5
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Mar 13  Dec 18  Jul 22  May 24
                     2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Approve              39      38      41      45
Disapprove           57      59      55      50
DK/NA                 4       4       4       6
 

Demographic Summary

Additional Crosstabs