June 18, 2014 - Ernst Almost Catches Braley In Iowa Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Big Gender Gap As Women Back Democratic Man
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State Sen. Joni Ernst, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senator in Iowa, trails U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, the Democrat, 44 - 40 percent, as an unusual gender gap shows women supporting the man while men support the woman, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 42 - 29 percent Braley lead over Ernst in a March 13 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Today, women back Braley 47 - 36 percent, while men back Ernst 44 - 40 percent. Republicans back their candidate 79 - 5 percent and Democrats are loyal 89 - 6 percent. Independent voters are split 38 - 38 percent.

Braley gets a 35 - 26 percent favorability rating from Iowa voters, with 37 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion, compared to 46 percent who didn't know enough in March.

Ernst gets an almost identical 34 - 28 percent favorability with 37 percent who don't know enough about her, compared to 80 percent who didn't know enough in March.

A total of 47 percent of voters have seen Ernst campaign ads "very often" or "somewhat often" and 57 percent of all voters say they are "very effective" or "somewhat effective.

A total of 35 percent of voters have seen Braley ads "very often" or "somewhat often" and 50 percent of all voters say they are "very effective" or "somewhat effective."

"Winning the Republican nomination introduced State Sen. Joni Ernst to the Iowa electorate positively and put her within range of U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, the Democrat. When Quinnipiac University surveyed Iowans in March, Joni Ernst was an unknown. Now she is as well-known as Bruce Braley, and his double-digit lead has all but evaporated," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

"The unusual split is due to some degree the fact that women tend to lean Democratic while men lean Republican," Brown added.

Iowa voters give both Senate candidates good grades for character:
  • Voters say 45 - 22 percent that Braley is honest and trustworthy, compared to 45 - 24 percent for Ernst;
  • Braley cares about their needs and problems, voters say 47 - 26 percent, compared to 44 - 31 percent for Ernst;
  • Braley has the right kind of experience to be a U.S. Senator, voters say 51 - 21 percent, compared to 43 - 33 percent for Ernst;
  • Braley is "about right" on the political scale, 43 percent of voters say, while 26 percent say he is too liberal. Ernst is "about right," 41 percent of voters say, while 27 percent say she is too conservative.
Despite an 11-point Braley lead among women, Iowa voters say 49 - 30 percent that Ernst would do a better job on issues important to women. Matchups on other issues show:
  • 40 - 36 percent that Braley would do a better job on the economy and jobs;
  • 42 - 34 percent that Braley would do a better job on the new federal health care law;
  • 38 - 34 percent that Braley would do better on immigration;
  • 34 - 28 percent that Braley would do better on same-sex marriage;
  • 43 - 28 percent that Braley would do better on the environment;
  • 45 - 28 percent that Braley would do better on the minimum wage;
  • 42 - 38 percent that Braley would do a better job helping the middle class;
  • 40 - 37 percent that Ernst would do a better job helping farmers;
  • 40 percent say Ernst would do a better job on government spending, while 38 percent say Braley would be better;
  • 39 - 31 percent that Braley would do a better job on gun control.
"Braley has a small lead in more measurements of personal characteristics and which candidate is better able to handle issues facing the state, but neither candidate's views and values are firmly fixed in the electorate's mind with a third of voters not knowing enough about either candidate to have an opinion," Brown said.

"One interesting data point is that voters think 44 - 31 percent that Ernst cares about their needs and problems, a category in which Republicans, even victorious ones, often struggle. Her TV ads which stressed her farm family background apparently are doing their job."

From June 12 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,277 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Joni Ernst the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Braley               44%     5%    89%    38%    40%    47%    41%    39%    45%    48%
Ernst                40     79      6     38     44     36     29     44     42     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      -      1      -      -      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      -      3      2      1      3      3      2      -
DK/NA                14     13      5     21     13     16     27     14     11     13
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Joni Ernst the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jun 18  Mar 13  Dec 18
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Braley               44      42      44
Ernst                40      29      38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       2
DK/NA                14      25      15
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Bruce Braley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            35%    10%    70%    29%    33%    38%    30%    31%    37%    41%
Unfavorable          26     50      4     24     34     19     19     34     26     22
Hvn't hrd enough     37     38     25     46     33     41     50     35     36     35
REFUSED               1      2      1      1      1      2      1      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bruce Braley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jun 18  Mar 13  Jul 22  May 24
                     2014    2014    2013    2013
 
Favorable            35      35      27      27
Unfavorable          26      18      13      14
Hvn't hrd enough     37      46      58      57
REFUSED               1       1       2       2
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Joni Ernst favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            34%    64%     7%    34%    40%    29%    26%    36%    38%    33%
Unfavorable          28      9     57     22     23     33     18     23     30     38
Hvn't hrd enough     37     26     35     42     36     37     56     40     32     27
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1      -      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Joni Ernst favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Jun 18  Mar 13  Jul 22  May 24
                     2014    2014    2013    2013
 
Favorable            34      13       6       5
Unfavorable          28       6       2       3
Hvn't hrd enough     37      80      92      92
REFUSED               1       1       1       1
 
 
37. Would you say that Bruce Braley - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  45%    27%    73%    39%    45%    45%    48%    36%    48%    51%
No                   22     38      4     23     28     17     20     28     23     14
DK/NA                33     34     22     39     27     38     33     35     29     35
 
 
38. Would you say that Bruce Braley - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  47%    27%    75%    41%    45%    48%    51%    38%    47%    53%
No                   26     42      7     26     32     20     18     34     27     18
DK/NA                28     30     17     33     23     32     31     28     25     30
 
 
39. Would you say that Bruce Braley - has the right kind of experience to be a United States Senator from Iowa or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  51%    33%    79%    45%    54%    49%    50%    50%    52%    52%
No                   21     36      4     23     26     17     19     24     21     19
DK/NA                28     31     17     32     20     34     31     26     27     28
 
 
40. Do you think Bruce Braley is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Liberal              26%    52%     4%    22%    34%    19%    22%    30%    27%    22%
Conservative          3      1      4      4      3      3      3      3      4      2
About right          43     21     74     38     40     46     43     37     43     49
DK/NA                28     27     17     35     23     32     32     30     25     27
 
 
41. Would you say that Joni Ernst - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  45%    70%    23%    44%    53%    37%    48%    39%    48%    47%
No                   24      8     46     21     21     28     26     21     27     23
DK/NA                31     22     31     35     27     35     27     40     25     30
 
 
42. Would you say that Joni Ernst - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  44%    67%    21%    45%    52%    37%    49%    41%    46%    41%
No                   31     12     58     25     25     35     24     27     32     36
DK/NA                25     21     21     30     23     28     27     32     21     23
 
 
43. Would you say that Joni Ernst - has the right kind of experience to be a United States Senator from Iowa or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  43%    70%    17%    42%    50%    36%    45%    43%    44%    41%
No                   33     11     63     28     29     37     27     24     36     41
DK/NA                24     19     19     30     21     27     27     33     20     17
 
 
44. Do you think Joni Ernst is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Liberal               7%     7%     6%     9%     7%     7%     7%     6%     7%     9%
Conservative         27      6     59     21     24     30     22     25     29     29
About right          41     67     17     41     48     34     42     42     44     36
DK/NA                25     20     19     29     20     29     28     27     20     26
 
 
45. (Split sample) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job - on the economy and jobs, Braley or Ernst?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Braley               40%    14%    76%    34%    35%    45%
Ernst                36     58     10     38     46     26
DK/NA                24     27     14     29     19     30
 
 
46. (Split sample) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job - on the new federal health care law, Braley or Ernst?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Braley               42%    18%    74%    38%    39%    46%
Ernst                34     60      9     35     43     25
DK/NA                24     22     18     27     18     29
 
 
47. (Split sample) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job - on immigration issues, Braley or Ernst?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Braley               38%    13%    68%    36%    36%    40%
Ernst                34     64      9     30     45     25
DK/NA                28     24     23     34     20     35
 
 
48. (Split sample) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job - on the issue of same-sex marriage, Braley or Ernst?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Braley               34%    16%    66%    27%    37%    31%
Ernst                28     48      8     29     34     22
DK/NA                38     36     27     44     30     46
 
 
49. (Split sample) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job - on issues that are especially important to women, Braley or Ernst?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Braley               30%    11%    59%    22%    26%    33%
Ernst                49     72     20     55     57     42
DK/NA                21     17     20     23     16     26
 
 
50. (Split sample) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job - on the environment, Braley or Ernst?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Braley               43%    19%    78%    32%    44%    42%
Ernst                28     47      8     29     33     23
DK/NA                30     34     14     38     23     36
 
 
51. (Split sample) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job - on the minimum wage, Braley or Ernst?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Braley               45%    22%    78%    40%    47%    43%
Ernst                28     50      8     28     32     25
DK/NA                27     27     14     33     22     32
 
 
52. (Split sample) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job - helping the middle class, Braley or Ernst?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Braley               42%    16%    79%    34%    37%    46%
Ernst                38     64      9     41     48     29
DK/NA                20     20     12     25     15     25
 
 
53. (Split sample) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job - on the issue of gun control, Braley or Ernst?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Braley               39%    18%    70%    34%    35%    43%
Ernst                31     50      9     35     39     24
DK/NA                30     32     21     31     25     33
 
 
54. (Split sample) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job - helping farmers, Braley or Ernst?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Braley               37%    16%    67%    32%    35%    38%
Ernst                40     63     16     41     45     35
DK/NA                23     21     17     27     19     27
 
 
55. (Split sample) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job - when it comes to finding the right balance between cutting government spending that is not needed and continuing government spending that is needed, Braley or Ernst?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Braley               38%    14%    70%    32%    33%    42%
Ernst                40     69     12     41     49     33
DK/NA                22     17     17     27     18     25
 
 
56. If Joni Ernst is elected United States Senator she would be Iowa's first woman U.S. Senator. Does this make you more likely to vote for her, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
More likely           9%     8%     9%    10%     7%    12%     9%     9%    10%    10%
Less likely           3      1      7      2      3      3      1      2      3      6
No difference        86     90     84     86     90     83     90     89     85     82
DK/NA                 1      -      -      2      -      2      -      -      1      2
 
 
57. Do you think of your vote for United States Senator as a vote for Barack Obama, or as a vote against Barack Obama, or isn't Barack Obama much of a factor in your vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
For Obama            11%     2%    26%     8%    11%    12%     7%    13%    11%    13%
Against Obama        25     54      2     21     28     22     26     24     23     27
Not much of a factor 62     42     69     69     60     63     65     60     65     56
DK/NA                 2      1      2      2      1      4      3      3      1      4
 
TREND: Do you think of your vote for United States Senator as a vote for Barack Obama, or as a vote against Barack Obama, or isn't Barack Obama much of a factor in your vote?
                     Jun 18  Dec 18
                     2014    2013
 
For Obama            11      14
Against Obama        25      29
Not much of a factor 62      54
DK/NA                 2       3
 
 
58. Now thinking of - Joni Ernst, how often would you say you've been seeing her campaign advertisements on television recently, very often, somewhat often, just occasionally or rarely?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Very often           25%    20%    34%    23%    20%    29%     6%    18%    28%    40%
Somewhat often       22     22     24     21     21     23     15     20     25     24
Just occasionally    20     28     16     18     21     19     25     17     23     17
Rarely               21     23     19     20     25     17     29     29     16     12
NEVER(VOL)            4      3      4      4      3      5      5      6      2      3
DON'T WATCH TV(VOL)   7      5      3     12      9      6     20      9      4      2
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      1      2      1      1      1      2
 
 
59. Now thinking of - Bruce Braley, how often would you say you've been seeing his campaign advertisements on television recently, very often, somewhat often, just occasionally or rarely?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Very often           13%    13%    17%    10%    13%    13%     5%     9%    15%    19%
Somewhat often       22     21     26     21     21     24     12     19     27     28
Just occasionally    26     28     29     23     25     26     26     24     25     28
Rarely               26     31     20     27     28     24     29     32     25     18
NEVER(VOL)            5      2      4      6      3      6      8      5      4      3
DON'T WATCH TV(VOL)   7      4      3     12      8      6     20      9      4      2
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      -      2      1      1      1      1
 
 
60. From what you've seen, would you say - Joni Ernst's ads are very effective at making their point, somewhat effective, not so effective or not effective at all?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Very effective       18%    28%    12%    17%    20%    17%    12%    18%    20%    23%
Somewhat effective   39     42     35     40     38     39     44     37     39     35
Not so effective     10      6     13     12      9     11      7      9     12     11
Not effective at all 18     12     28     15     19     17     15     18     18     20
DK/NA                15     12     12     16     14     16     22     19     12     11
 
 
61. From what you've seen, would you say - Bruce Braley's ads are very effective at making their point, somewhat effective, not so effective or not effective at all?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Very effective       10%     6%    19%     6%     8%    12%     5%     6%    13%    15%
Somewhat effective   40     34     50     41     39     42     38     39     41     43
Not so effective     12     15      7     13     13     10     14     12     12     11
Not effective at all 19     28     10     19     21     16     12     22     19     16
DK/NA                19     17     14     22     18     20     32     22     15     14
 
 

Demographic Summary

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