June 19, 2014 - Dem Challenger Still Unknown In Iowa Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Approve Of Branstad, But Mixed On Reelection
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With a big boost from men, Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad leads his little-known Democratic challenger, State Sen. Jack Hatch, 47 - 38 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 46 - 35 percent lead for Gov. Branstad in a March 12 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Today, men back the incumbent 51 - 32 percent, while women are divided, with 44 percent for Hatch and 43 percent for Branstad. The governor takes Republicans 85 - 5 percent and independent voters 46 - 34 percent, with Democrats for the challenger 79 - 12 percent.

Iowa voters approve 54 - 37 percent of the job Branstad is doing, but are divided on whether he deserves reelection, as 48 percent say yes and 45 percent say no.

Branstad gets a 48 - 38 percent favorability rating, while 64 percent of voters do not know enough about Hatch to form an opinion, compared to 74 percent in March.

"Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad's 11-point lead in March now stands at nine points. Pollsters call that two-point change 'statistically insignificant,' but the incumbent no longer has a 'double- digit' lead," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

"Disappointing from State Sen. Jack Hatch's point of view is how little headway he is making in introducing himself to Iowa voters. Three months ago, 74 percent of Iowans didn't know enough about him to have an opinion. Now it's 64 percent. If that pace continues until November, it will be difficult to win. The fact that more say they will vote for Sen. Hatch than have an opinion of him reflects his getting the Democratic base. But he trails by double-digits among independent voters, the largest group."

A total of 21 percent of Iowa voters say the economy and jobs are the most important issue in deciding how they will vote for governor, with 12 percent who list education and education funding, followed by 5 percent each for taxes and budget/spending.

Iowa's economy is "excellent" or "good" 76 percent of voters say. Of that group, 73 percent give Branstad "a lot" or "some" of the credit.

The governor gets good character grades, while the challenger remains unknown:
  • Voters say 55 - 35 percent that Branstad is honest and trustworthy, with 54 percent undecided on Hatch;
  • Branstad cares about their needs and problems, voters say 54 - 40 percent, with 48 percent undecided on Hatch;
  • Branstad has strong leadership qualities, voters say 70 - 27 percent, with 54 percent undecided on the challenger.
"Gov. Branstad has two big things going for him: Iowans like him personally and they like his performance," Brown said. "They think he is honest and that he understands their problems, and an astounding 70 percent say he is a strong leader. That's a pretty good report card for someone who has been in office for almost 20 years. The fact that Iowans are divided on whether Branstad deserves another term probably reflects some hesitation because of his lengthy tenure.

"Gov. Branstad also benefits from what most Iowans see as a good economy. Three out of four say they are very or somewhat satisfied with the way things are going in Iowa and a similar number rate the economy as good or excellent. History doesn't bring to mind many governors or presidents who lost a reelection while riding satisfaction and economic numbers that good."

From June 12 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,277 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jack Hatch the Democrat and Terry Branstad the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Hatch                38%     5%    79%    34%    32%    44%    23%    39%    41%    43%
Branstad             47     85     12     46     51     43     50     49     48     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1      -      1      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      4      3      3      6      4      2      1
DK/NA                11      7      6     15     12     10     20      9      8     12
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jack Hatch the Democrat and Terry Branstad the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jun 19  Mar 12  Dec 17
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Hatch                38      35      33
Branstad             47      46      49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       2       3
DK/NA                11      15      14
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Terry Branstad favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            48%    83%    19%    45%    53%    44%    46%    48%    51%    47%
Unfavorable          38     10     70     35     32     44     20     41     41     41
Hvn't hrd enough     10      5      8     16     12      9     31      9      6      6
REFUSED               3      2      3      4      3      3      2      1      2      7
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Terry Branstad favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jun 19  Mar 12  Jul 19
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Favorable            48      47      50
Unfavorable          38      33      37
Hvn't hrd enough     10      16      11
REFUSED               3       4       2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Jack Hatch favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            19%     5%    42%    13%    18%    19%    11%    16%    22%    24%
Unfavorable          16     32      5     12     18     13     10     17     17     14
Hvn't hrd enough     64     62     52     74     62     66     79     66     60     60
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      -      2      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Jack Hatch favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jun 19  Mar 12  Jul 19
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Favorable            19      14       6
Unfavorable          16      10       7
Hvn't hrd enough     64      74      85
REFUSED               1       1       1
 
 
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Terry Branstad is handling his job as Governor?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              54%    84%    26%    54%    62%    47%    59%    55%    55%    49%
Disapprove           37     10     67     35     30     44     23     38     38     43
DK/NA                 9      7      7     12      8      9     18      6      7      8
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Terry Branstad is handling his job as Governor?
                     Jun 19  Mar 12  Dec 17  Jul 19  May 23
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Approve              54      55      58      51      49
Disapprove           37      35      32      33      31
DK/NA                 9      10      10      16      20
 
 
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              46%    56%    43%    43%    49%    43%    48%    48%    48%    38%
Disapprove           36     27     40     39     36     36     27     37     40     37
DK/NA                18     17     17     18     15     21     25     14     12     25
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                     Jun 19  Mar 12  Dec 17  Jul 19  May 23
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Approve              46      45      48      46      38
Disapprove           36      37      35      34      41
DK/NA                18      18      17      20      21
 
 
23. Do you feel that Terry Branstad deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes/Deserves         48%    80%    17%    49%    56%    42%    59%    48%    49%    43%
No/Does not          45     16     78     43     38     52     34     45     47     50
DK/NA                 6      5      4      8      6      6      8      7      4      7
 
TREND: Do you feel that Terry Branstad deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Jun 19  Mar 12  Dec 17  Jul 19  May 23
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Yes/Deserves         48      48      50      43      42
No/Does not          45      41      41      46      43
DK/NA                 6      11       9      12      16
 
 
24. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Iowa today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Very satisfied       13%    23%     6%    11%    14%    12%     9%    12%    13%    15%
Smwht satisfied      60     66     57     59     62     59     66     64     53     58
Smwht dissatisfied   20      8     27     23     18     22     22     17     22     21
Very dissatisfied     6      3      8      6      6      7      3      6     10      4
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      1      -      1      1      2
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Iowa today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     Jun 19  Mar 12  Dec 17  Jul 19  May 23
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Very satisfied       13      12      11       8       8
Smwht satisfied      60      59      60      59      58
Smwht dissatisfied   20      21      21      24      25
Very dissatisfied     6       6       6       7       7
DK/NA                 1       1       1       1       2
 
 
25. What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for Governor this year?
                            Tot
 
Economy(General)            11
Jobs/Unemployment           10
 
Wages/Minimum Wage           1
 
Budget(General)              4
Government spending          1
 
Taxes                        5
 
Education(General)          10
Funding/Spending education   1
Education(Other Specific)    1
 
Unions                       1
 
Crime                        1
 
Gun Issues/Policy/Control    1
 
Healthcare                   3
Abortion                     1
Social Issues                1
Elderly Issues               2
Immigration Issues           1
Gay marriage/Gay Issues      1
Marijuana                    1
Roads/Traffic/Infrastructure 1
 
Farming/Agriculture          2
Environment                  2
Gas/Oil/Energy Issues        1
 
Military Issues/Benefits     1
 
Party/Political Philosophy   4
Voting/Election issues       1
 
Caring about people          2
Candidate experience         1
Honesty/Trustworthiness      3
 
Replace Governor             2
 
Other                        7
 
DK/NA                       16
 
 
26. Would you say that Jack Hatch - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  28%    17%    47%    23%    30%    25%    25%    21%    31%    33%
No                   18     29     10     17     21     16     19     22     20     11
DK/NA                54     54     44     60     49     59     56     57     49     56
 
 
27. Would you say that Jack Hatch - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  29%    21%    50%    22%    32%    27%    29%    25%    30%    34%
No                   22     31     15     22     26     19     19     26     24     16
DK/NA                48     48     36     56     42     54     52     49     45     50
 
 
28. Would you say that Jack Hatch - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  29%    18%    49%    26%    32%    27%    39%    26%    28%    30%
No                   17     28      8     17     20     15     10     18     22     14
DK/NA                54     54     43     57     49     58     51     56     50     56
 
 
29. Would you say that Terry Branstad - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  55%    84%    34%    52%    59%    51%    64%    49%    57%    56%
No                   35     10     58     36     33     38     24     40     35     36
DK/NA                10      5      9     12      8     11     12     11      8      9
 
TREND: Would you say that Terry Branstad is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     Jun 19  Mar 12  Dec 17
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Yes                  55      61      61
No                   35      29      29
DK/NA                10      10      10
 
 
30. Would you say that Terry Branstad - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  54%    85%    29%    51%    59%    50%    63%    52%    54%    51%
No                   40     12     66     40     34     44     28     42     41     42
DK/NA                 6      3      5      9      7      6      9      6      5      7
 
TREND: Would you say that Terry Branstad cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     Jun 19  Mar 12  Dec 17
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Yes                  54      53      56
No                   40      39      37
DK/NA                 6       8       7
 
 
31. Would you say that Terry Branstad - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  70%    89%    52%    70%    73%    67%    79%    71%    69%    65%
No                   27     10     44     26     23     29     14     25     28     32
DK/NA                 4      1      4      4      3      4      7      3      3      4
 
TREND: Would you say that Terry Branstad has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     Jun 19  Mar 12  Dec 17
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Yes                  70      68      67
No                   27      25      27
DK/NA                 4       7       6
 
 
32. Would you describe the state of Iowa's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Excellent             7%    11%     3%     7%     9%     4%     4%     8%     6%     8%
Good                 69     74     66     66     72     65     75     68     65     69
Not so good          19     11     24     21     15     22     15     18     22     19
Poor                  5      3      6      5      3      7      6      6      7      2
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      1      1      -      1      1
 
TREND: Would you describe the state of Iowa's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                     Jun 19  Mar 12  Jul 22  May 23
                     2014    2014    2013    2013
 
Excellent             7       4       4       5
Good                 69      66      63      61
Not so good          19      24      25      26
Poor                  5       5       6       6
DK/NA                 1       1       2       2
 
 
33a. (If economy excellent/good q32) How much credit do you give Governor Branstad for the state of Iowa's economy; a lot, some, not much, or none at all?
                     Economy Excellent/Good Q32
 
A lot                21%
Some                 52
Not much             19
None at all           6
DK/NA                 1
 
 
33b. (If economy not so good/poor q32) How much blame do you give Governor Branstad for the state of Iowa's economy; a lot, some, not much, or none at all?
                     Economy Not so good/Poor Q32
 
A lot                18%
Some                 52
Not much             19
None at all           8
DK/NA                 3
 
 
34. Do you think Iowa's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Better               39%    48%    33%    38%    41%    37%    36%    45%    37%    36%
Worse                10      6     10     13      7     13     12      8     13      8
The same             49     44     57     48     51     48     50     45     49     54
DK/NA                 1      2      1      1      -      2      2      2      1      2
 
TREND: Do you think Iowa's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
                     Jun 19  Mar 12  Jul 22  May 23
                     2014    2014    2013    2013
 
Better               39      31      34      35
Worse                10      10      11      13
The same             49      57      53      51
DK/NA                 1       2       2       1
 
 
35. Compared with four years ago, do you think Iowa's economy is better today, worse today, or about the same?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Better               48%    54%    41%    50%    52%    44%    47%    53%    45%    45%
Worse                11      7     12     14      8     14     11     11     12     12
About the same       38     36     45     34     38     39     40     34     40     40
DK/NA                 3      3      1      3      2      3      3      2      2      4
 
 
36. Compared with four years ago, are you and your family financially better off today, worse off today, or about the same?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Better off           28%    34%    24%    27%    31%    25%    38%    35%    25%    17%
Worse off            22     15     24     24     19     24     23     21     27     17
About the same       50     50     52     48     49     51     39     44     48     66
DK/NA                 -      1      -      -      1      -      -      -      -      1
 
 

Demographic Summary

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