June 23, 2014 - Christie Trails Clinton, But Inches Up In Iowa, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Reject Bergdahl POW Swap
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New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie is inching his way back into the 2016 presidential race in Iowa and now trails former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 44 - 36 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 48 - 35 percent Clinton lead in a March 13 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Secretary Clinton tops other possible Republican 2016 contenders:
  • 46 - 40 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
  • 46 - 39 percent over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee;
  • 49 - 36 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
  • 47 - 41 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.
Support for Clinton among Iowa's independent voters ranges from a too-close-to-call 42 percent for the Democrat to 38 percent for Ryan to a 47 - 30 percent Clinton lead over Bush.

Iowa voters give Clinton a 52 - 41 percent favorability, compared to 41 - 34 percent for Huckabee, divided scores of 34 - 32 percent for Paul, 35 - 35 percent for Ryan and 34 - 36 percent for Christie, and a negative 28 - 36 percent for Bush.

"Things are getting a bit better in Iowa for New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

"But the Republican contender, who was ahead of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Iowa before 'Bridgegate' took him down several pegs, still has a ways to go.

"Secretary Clinton leads all the potential GOP candidates with U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan and Sen. Rand Paul running closest, six points in back of her."

Iowa voters give President Barack Obama a negative 40 - 55 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 39 - 57 percent score in a March 13 Quinnipiac University poll. Democrats approve 85 - 12 percent, while negative scores are 5 - 94 percent among Republicans and 33 - 59 percent among independent voters.

Men go negative 36 - 60 percent, with women negative 44 - 50 percent.

Voters approve 62 - 30 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley is doing and give U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin a 56 - 33 percent approval.

"Iowans are consistent in their disapproval of President Barack Obama's job performance. In four polls over the past 11 months, his job approval has been between 38 percent and 41 percent, slightly below the numbers he is getting nationally," Brown said. "The key to his problem is he is doing poorly among independent voters, a larger part of the electorate in Iowa than in most states."

Bergdahl Prisoner Exchange

Iowa voters disapprove 55 - 34 percent of the Obama Administration's decision to release five Taliban prisoners in exchange for Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl. Disapproval is 59 - 33 percent among men, 51 - 35 percent among women, 83 - 14 percent among Republicans, 56 - 29 percent among independent voters and among all age groups. Democrats approve 60 - 26 percent.

If it's found that Bergdahl deserted his post, Iowa voters say 74 - 13 percent that he should be charged with a military crime. There is strong support for charging the soldier among all party, gender and age groups.

"There is sharp partisan division about the wisdom of the prisoner swap, with Democrats strongly backing the president's decision and Republicans even more opposed. But there is smaller partisan split on the question of whether Sgt. Bergdahl should be prosecuted if it is proven that he deserted his post," said Brown.

From June 12 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,277 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              44%     7%    86%    41%    37%    51%    44%    41%    45%    48%
Christie             36     78      4     31     42     30     34     39     34     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      4      1      4      6      2      6      6      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      5      1      7      7      4      7      5      6      4
DK/NA                11      8      7     16      9     13      9      9     13     12
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jun 23  Mar 13  Dec 17  Jul 22
                     2014    2014    2013    2013
 
Clinton              44      48      40      41
Christie             36      35      45      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3       3       3       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5       4       4       4
DK/NA                11      10       8      11
 
 
8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              46%     9%    91%    42%    38%    54%    40%    48%    45%    50%
Paul                 40     81      4     37     49     32     45     41     40     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      4      3      1      5      3      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      1      3      3      2      1      2      3      2
DK/NA                 9      6      4     14      7     11     10      6     10     11
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jun 23  Mar 13  Dec 17  May 24
                     2014    2014    2013    2013
 
Clinton              46      49      45      46
Paul                 40      39      44      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1       1       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       2       3
DK/NA                 9       9       7       7
 
 
9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mike Huckabee the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              46%     9%    90%    42%    37%    54%    44%    44%    46%    50%
Huckabee             39     82      4     37     48     32     41     40     40     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      -      3      3      1      4      2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      1      5      5      3      6      5      4      2
DK/NA                 8      5      4     13      7     10      5      9     10      8
 
 
10. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              49%     9%    92%    47%    43%    55%    48%    49%    50%    49%
Bush                 36     83      3     30     42     31     31     37     36     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      -      5      5      1      6      4      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      1      6      6      3      7      5      5      2
DK/NA                 7      3      3     12      5     10      7      6      7      9
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jun 23  Mar 13  Dec 17
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Clinton              49      51      47
Bush                 36      37      40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       3       3
DK/NA                 7       8       7
 
 
11. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              47%     9%    91%    42%    39%    54%    40%    46%    48%    49%
Ryan                 41     83      5     38     48     33     46     40     40     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      3      -      3      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      1      4      4      2      3      3      3      2
DK/NA                 9      5      3     14      6     11      7      9      8     10
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            34%    54%    24%    30%    37%    32%    24%    38%    35%    36%
Unfavorable          36     23     52     34     39     34     33     38     37     36
Hvn't hrd enough     27     21     22     34     22     32     39     25     27     25
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      2      2      3      -      1      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jun 23  July 22
                     2014    2013
 
Favorable            34      42
Unfavorable          36      16
Hvn't hrd enough     27      40
REFUSED               2       2
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            34%    68%     5%    30%    42%    26%    38%    38%    32%    29%
Unfavorable          32      8     62     28     30     34     24     28     33     39
Hvn't hrd enough     33     23     32     40     25     39     36     32     34     30
REFUSED               1      2      -      2      2      1      3      1      1      1
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            41%    78%    15%    35%    44%    38%    34%    43%    43%    40%
Unfavorable          34     10     59     31     33     34     29     32     34     37
Hvn't hrd enough     24     11     25     32     22     27     36     24     22     21
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      1      1      1      1      2
 
 
15. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            28%    55%    13%    22%    30%    26%    14%    28%    29%    32%
Unfavorable          36     13     58     35     37     35     36     37     38     32
Hvn't hrd enough     35     31     29     42     32     38     48     34     32     33
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      1      2      1      -      2
 
 
16. Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            35%    70%     6%    33%    42%    30%    36%    36%    36%    31%
Unfavorable          35      9     68     29     34     35     33     32     34     40
Hvn't hrd enough     30     20     26     38     24     35     31     32     29     28
REFUSED               -      1      -      -      -      -      -      -      1      1
 
 
17. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            52%    13%    92%    52%    42%    60%    46%    51%    54%    52%
Unfavorable          41     80      5     39     50     33     41     44     40     39
Hvn't hrd enough      5      5      3      6      5      4      9      4      3      5
REFUSED               2      2      1      3      2      2      3      1      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Jun 23  July 22
                     2014    2013
 
Favorable            52      52
Unfavorable          41      41
Hvn't hrd enough      5       6
REFUSED               2       2
 
 
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Grassley is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              62%    80%    46%    63%    61%    63%    51%    68%    64%    58%
Disapprove           30     12     45     29     32     27     31     24     30     35
DK/NA                 8      8      9      8      6     10     18      8      5      7
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Grassley is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Jun 23  Mar 13  Dec 18  Jul 19  May 23
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Approve              62      62      60      59      52
Disapprove           30      27      30      29      33
DK/NA                 8      12      10      12      15
 
 
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Harkin is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              56%    32%    82%    55%    51%    60%    50%    55%    58%    58%
Disapprove           33     58     10     30     39     27     31     34     33     32
DK/NA                11     10      8     15     10     12     19     11      9     10
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Harkin is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Jun 23  Mar 13  Dec 18  Jul 19  May 23
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Approve              56      55      50      50      47
Disapprove           33      31      38      35      35
DK/NA                11      14      12      15      18
 
 
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              40%     5%    85%    33%    36%    44%    36%    38%    43%    43%
Disapprove           55     94     12     59     60     50     60     58     53     51
DK/NA                 5      1      3      8      4      5      4      5      5      5
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Jun 23  Mar 13  Dec 18  Jul 22  May 24
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Approve              40      39      38      41      45
Disapprove           55      57      59      55      50
DK/NA                 5       4       4       4       6
 
 
62. Do you approve or disapprove of the Obama administration releasing five Taliban prisoners in exchange for the Taliban releasing U.S. soldier Bowe Bergdahl?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              34%    14%    60%    29%    33%    35%    42%    31%    33%    35%
Disapprove           55     83     26     56     59     51     47     59     58     50
DK/NA                11      4     13     14      8     14     12      9     10     15
 
 
62a. Do you approve or disapprove of the Obama administration releasing five Taliban prisoners in exchange for the Taliban releasing U.S. soldier Bowe Bergdahl? COMBINED WITH: (If approve/disapprove q62) Do you feel that way strongly, or somewhat?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve strongly     16%     7%    28%    13%    16%    16%    17%    12%    17%    19%
Approve somewhat     18      7     33     16     17     19     25     18     15     17
Disapprove somewhat  11     10     10     12     10     11     14     13      9      8
Disapprove strongly  44     73     16     44     49     40     33     46     48     42
DK/NA                12      4     13     15      9     15     12     10     10     15
 
 
63. (If approve prisoner exchange q62) It's been reported that Bergdahl may have deserted his post before he was captured by the Taliban five years ago. If that's true, do you approve or disapprove of this prisoner exchange?
                     Approve prisoner exchange q62
 
Approve              72%
Disapprove           17
DK/NA                12
 
 
63a. (If approve prisoner exchange q62) It's been reported that Bergdahl may have deserted his post before he was captured by the Taliban five years ago. If that's true, do you approve or disapprove of this prisoner exchange? COMBINED WITH: (If approve/disapprove q63) Do you feel that way strongly, or somewhat?
                     Approve prisoner exchange q62
 
Approve strongly     44%
Approve somewhat     28
Disapprove somewhat   8
Disapprove strongly   9
DK/NA                12
 
 
63b. Do you approve or disapprove of the Obama administration releasing five Taliban prisoners in exchange for the Taliban releasing U.S. soldier Bowe Bergdahl? COMBINED WITH: (If approve prisoner exchange q62) It's been reported that Bergdahl may have deserted his post before he was captured by the Taliban five years ago. If that's true, do you approve or disapprove of this prisoner exchange?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              24%    10%    43%    20%    23%    25%    32%    24%    21%    24%
Disapprove/If desertd 6      2     10      5      6      5      8      5      6      5
Disapprove           55     83     26     56     59     51     47     59     58     50
DK/NA                15      5     20     18     11     19     13     11     15     21
 
 
64. If it's found that Bergdahl deserted his post, would you support or oppose his being charged with a military crime?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Support              74%    83%    65%    76%    82%    68%    67%    81%    74%    72%
Oppose               13      8     19     10     11     14     17      9     15     11
DK/NA                13      9     15     14      8     18     16     10     11     17
 
 
64a. If it's found that Bergdahl deserted his post, would you support or oppose his being charged with a military crime? COMBINED WITH: (If support/oppose q64) Do you feel that way strongly, or somewhat?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Support strongly     55%    66%    42%    56%    64%    46%    43%    60%    59%    50%
Support somewhat     20     17     23     19     17     22     23     21     15     21
Oppose somewhat       7      5     10      6      6      8     15      3      7      6
Oppose strongly       5      3     10      4      4      6      2      6      8      5
DK/NA                13      9     16     15      8     18     17     10     11     18
 
 

Demographic Summary

Additional Crosstabs