July 1, 2015 - It's Walker Plus Six Also-Rans In Iowa GOP Caucus, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Christie In 15th Place In Field Of 16 PDF format Sample and Methodology detail Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leads the pack in the Iowa Republican Caucus, but his support is shrinking among likely Republican Caucus participants, as six other contenders battle for second place, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie is in 15th place, with 1 percent. Walker has 18 percent of likely GOP caucus participants, compared to 25 percent in a February 25 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and 21 percent in a May 6 survey. Jostling for second place are Donald Trump and Ben Carson, at 10 percent each, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 9 percent each, former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida at 8 percent and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 7 percent. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has 5 percent. No other candidate is above 4 percent and 5 percent are undecided. Trump and Bush top the "no way" list as 28 percent say they would definitely not support Trump and 24 percent say no to Bush. Christie is next on this negative list with 18 percent. "Those who thought the Republican race in the Iowa caucuses might begin to clarify itself better think again," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "As even more candidates toss their hats into the ring, the race has gotten even more muddled. "Iowa front-runner Scott Walker, the governor of neighboring Wisconsin, remains in front, but his support continues to drop. Meanwhile, behind Walker are a half-dozen wannabes who are fighting for second place." "In that second-place gaggle is newly declared candidate and billionaire businessman Donald Trump, whose early showing - he is getting one in 10 votes - worries many party leaders. They see him as a potentially disruptive force," Brown added. "Gov. Jeb Bush's formal announcement seems to have inched up his standing, while New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie may think making his candidacy official will help him climb out of the caucus basement. "Meanwhile, the candidate other than Walker with the best favorability rating is surgeon and political neophyte Ben Carson." Walker has the best favorability rating, 66 - 8 percent, among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants. He also scores high on personal qualities as voters say 71 - 8 percent he is honest and trustworthy, 75 - 7 percent that he has strong leadership qualities and 71 - 10 percent that he cares about their needs and problems. Favorability ratings for other Republican candidates are: 53 - 31 percent for Paul; Negative 42 - 47 percent for Trump; 46 - 42 percent for Bush; 63 - 7 percent for Carson; 58 - 19 percent for Cruz; 60 - 13 percent for Rubio; 61 - 28 percent for Huckabee Negative 25 - 59 percent for Christie. If Jeb Bush is elected president he would follow different policies from his brother, President George W. Bush, likely Republican caucus participants say 69 - 20 percent. Voters say 60 - 28 percent that Bush is honest and trustworthy, 68 - 25 percent that he has strong leadership qualities and 55 - 35 percent that he cares about their needs and problems. From June 20 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 666 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 1. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, and Scott Walker, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Graham, Huckabee, Jindal, Kasich, Pataki, Paul, Perry, Rubio, Santorum, Trump, or Walker? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Bush 8% 1% 6% 3% 10% 15% 8% 9% Carson 10 9 9 13 8 6 8 12 Christie 1 - - - 1 3 1 1 Cruz 9 19 11 16 4 2 9 7 Fiorina 3 2 3 4 2 3 3 4 Graham 1 - 2 - 3 2 1 2 Huckabee 5 1 8 6 6 5 5 5 Jindal 3 3 3 4 1 2 2 4 Kasich 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 2 Pataki - - - - - - - - Paul 9 9 7 7 8 15 12 4 Perry 4 6 7 5 5 2 5 4 Rubio 7 4 6 5 13 6 6 9 Santorum 4 7 6 4 4 3 3 5 Trump 10 10 8 7 11 15 9 12 Walker 18 22 18 21 18 12 21 14 DK/NA 5 3 4 4 4 8 4 6 TREND: If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump and Scott Walker, who would you support? If undecided If you had to choose today, would you support Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Graham, Huckabee, Jindal, Kasich, Pataki, Paul, Perry, Rubio, Santorum, Trump or Walker? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 Feb 25 2015 2015 2015 Bush 8 5 10 Carson 10 7 11 Christie 1 3 4 Cruz 9 12 5 Fiorina 3 2 na Graham 1 - na Huckabee 5 11 11 Jindal 3 1 2 Kasich 2 2 - Pataki - na na Paul 9 13 13 Perry 4 3 3 Rubio 7 13 4 Santorum 4 2 4 Trump 10 na na Walker 18 21 25 DK/NA 5 6 9 1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Who is your second choice: Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Graham, Huckabee, Jindal, Kasich, Pataki, Paul, Perry, Rubio, Santorum, Trump, or Walker? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Bush 9% 6% 5% 5% 12% 12% 8% 10% Carson 8 10 9 9 8 5 5 12 Christie 3 - 3 - 6 4 2 3 Cruz 5 8 5 7 6 1 6 3 Fiorina 3 5 5 4 2 4 4 2 Graham 1 - - - - 1 1 - Huckabee 7 3 9 6 6 9 8 6 Jindal 5 7 5 8 3 3 6 4 Kasich 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 Pataki - - - - - - - - Paul 6 5 3 5 7 6 6 4 Perry 6 5 8 9 2 6 7 5 Rubio 11 10 10 11 11 10 11 11 Santorum 5 7 5 5 4 4 4 5 Trump 6 10 8 9 5 3 6 6 Walker 11 14 12 13 14 6 12 10 No first choice 5 3 4 4 4 8 4 6 DK/NA 9 5 9 5 9 16 7 13 1B. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, and Scott Walker, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Graham, Huckabee, Jindal, Kasich, Pataki, Paul, Perry, Rubio, Santorum, Trump, or Walker? COMBINED WITH: Who is your second choice ...? (Note: Percentages add to more than 100%) LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Q1 & Q1A COMBINED................................... Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Bush 17% 7% 12% 8% 22% 27% 15% 19% Carson 17 18 18 22 16 11 13 23 Christie 4 1 3 - 7 7 3 4 Cruz 13 28 17 23 10 2 16 10 Fiorina 7 7 8 8 4 7 7 6 Graham 2 - 2 1 3 3 2 2 Huckabee 12 4 17 11 11 14 13 11 Jindal 7 10 8 12 3 5 7 8 Kasich 3 4 2 2 6 2 3 4 Pataki - - - - - 1 - - Paul 15 14 10 11 15 21 19 9 Perry 11 11 14 14 7 8 12 8 Rubio 18 14 16 16 25 16 17 20 Santorum 8 14 11 10 7 7 7 10 Trump 17 20 16 16 16 18 16 18 Walker 29 36 30 34 32 18 33 24 TREND: If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Lindsay Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump and Scott Walker, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Graham, Huckabee, Jindal, Kasich, Pataki, Paul, Perry, Rubio, Santorum, Trump or Walker? COMBINED WITH: Who is your second choice...? (Note: Percentages add to more than 100%) LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 Feb 25 2015 2015 2015 Bush 17 12 20 Carson 17 15 19 Christie 4 7 11 Cruz 13 22 11 Fiorina 7 6 na Graham 2 - na Huckabee 12 16 18 Jindal 7 5 5 Kasich 3 2 2 Pataki - na na Paul 15 20 21 Perry 11 7 11 Rubio 18 27 9 Santorum 8 6 10 Trump 17 na na Walker 29 33 37 2. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Bush 24% 37% 26% 32% 18% 16% 26% 22% Carson 4 4 4 3 3 6 5 3 Christie 18 25 21 22 14 15 18 17 Cruz 9 2 8 4 10 15 8 10 Fiorina 4 4 5 3 6 4 4 5 Graham 12 20 15 14 11 8 12 10 Huckabee 11 10 8 8 11 16 11 10 Jindal 4 2 4 1 6 7 4 4 Kasich 5 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 Pataki 6 7 8 6 7 4 6 5 Paul 11 11 9 10 11 13 9 13 Perry 7 5 6 4 7 14 6 9 Rubio 4 4 5 3 4 5 3 6 Santorum 8 4 6 3 10 12 8 7 Trump 28 20 25 21 31 35 26 30 Walker 4 1 3 1 5 8 3 6 No/No one 26 22 31 29 32 15 25 28 DK/NA 7 3 6 6 5 11 7 8 TREND: Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 Feb 25 2015 2015 2015 Bush 24 25 26 Carson 4 4 3 Christie 18 20 26 Cruz 9 7 8 Fiorina 4 5 na Graham 12 8 na Huckabee 11 9 10 Jindal 4 3 4 Kasich 5 4 3 Pataki 6 na na Paul 11 10 7 Perry 7 7 7 Rubio 4 5 5 Santorum 8 8 8 Trump 28 na na Walker 4 3 3 No/No one 26 35 29 DK/NA 7 10 14 5. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 46% 33% 45% 34% 58% 53% 46% 46% Unfavorable 42 59 42 52 33 34 45 37 Hvn't hrd enough 12 9 12 14 9 11 9 16 REFUSED 1 - - - 1 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 Feb 25 2015 2015 2015 Favorable 46 39 41 Unfavorable 42 45 40 Hvn't hrd enough 12 15 17 REFUSED 1 1 1 6. Is your opinion of Ben Carson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 63% 74% 66% 72% 68% 42% 63% 63% Unfavorable 7 7 4 6 6 9 9 4 Hvn't hrd enough 30 19 29 22 26 48 28 34 REFUSED - - - - - - - - TREND: Is your opinion of Ben Carson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 Feb 25 2015 2015 2015 Favorable 63 53 51 Unfavorable 7 9 5 Hvn't hrd enough 30 38 43 REFUSED - - - 7. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 25% 13% 22% 19% 32% 30% 26% 25% Unfavorable 59 75 62 67 52 54 60 57 Hvn't hrd enough 15 12 16 14 17 15 13 18 REFUSED 1 - - - - 1 1 - TREND: Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 Feb 25 2015 2015 2015 Favorable 25 32 30 Unfavorable 59 56 54 Hvn't hrd enough 15 11 15 REFUSED 1 1 1 8. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 58% 80% 64% 76% 52% 34% 60% 54% Unfavorable 19 5 13 9 23 32 20 17 Hvn't hrd enough 23 14 23 16 24 33 19 29 REFUSED - 1 - - 1 - 1 - TREND: Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 Feb 25 2015 2015 2015 Favorable 58 59 46 Unfavorable 19 19 19 Hvn't hrd enough 23 21 34 REFUSED - 1 1 9. Is your opinion of Carly Fiorina favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 36% 43% 36% 42% 30% 33% 39% 32% Unfavorable 8 7 9 7 7 10 10 6 Hvn't hrd enough 55 50 55 50 62 57 51 61 REFUSED - - - 1 1 - - 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Carly Fiorina favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 2015 2015 Favorable 36 26 Unfavorable 8 8 Hvn't hrd enough 55 66 REFUSED - - 10. Is your opinion of Lindsey Graham favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 20% 17% 17% 20% 18% 22% 20% 19% Unfavorable 38 53 38 43 33 35 43 30 Hvn't hrd enough 42 29 43 36 47 43 37 49 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 2 - - 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Lindsey Graham favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 2015 2015 Favorable 20 15 Unfavorable 38 37 Hvn't hrd enough 42 47 REFUSED 1 1 11. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 61% 63% 72% 71% 65% 40% 60% 63% Unfavorable 28 27 19 22 23 44 31 23 Hvn't hrd enough 10 9 9 6 12 15 9 13 REFUSED 1 1 - - - 1 1 - TREND: Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 Feb 25 2015 2015 2015 Favorable 61 64 63 Unfavorable 28 27 24 Hvn't hrd enough 10 7 12 REFUSED 1 1 1 12. Is your opinion of Bobby Jindal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 49% 61% 48% 66% 39% 34% 50% 48% Unfavorable 9 5 7 3 10 18 11 8 Hvn't hrd enough 41 34 45 31 50 48 39 44 REFUSED - - - - 1 - 1 - TREND: Is your opinion of Bobby Jindal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 Feb 25 2015 2015 2015 Favorable 49 45 41 Unfavorable 9 9 9 Hvn't hrd enough 41 44 50 REFUSED - 1 1 13. Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 20% 23% 18% 21% 20% 20% 20% 20% Unfavorable 11 15 12 13 6 12 13 7 Hvn't hrd enough 69 62 70 66 74 69 66 74 REFUSED - - - - - - - - TREND: Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 Feb 25 2015 2015 2015 Favorable 20 20 17 Unfavorable 11 8 6 Hvn't hrd enough 69 72 77 REFUSED - - - 14. Is your opinion of George Pataki favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 9% 11% 5% 9% 8% 12% 9% 9% Unfavorable 20 26 20 24 15 18 24 14 Hvn't hrd enough 70 63 73 66 76 71 67 75 REFUSED 1 - 2 1 1 - - 2 15. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 53% 66% 54% 55% 51% 53% 60% 42% Unfavorable 31 22 29 30 32 28 27 37 Hvn't hrd enough 15 9 16 13 16 17 12 20 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 - 1 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 Feb 25 2015 2015 2015 Favorable 53 59 58 Unfavorable 31 23 22 Hvn't hrd enough 15 16 18 REFUSED 1 1 1 16. Is your opinion of Rick Perry favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 61% 77% 68% 74% 58% 43% 64% 56% Unfavorable 21 10 14 9 19 43 21 20 Hvn't hrd enough 17 11 17 16 20 14 13 22 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Perry favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 Feb 25 2015 2015 2015 Favorable 61 51 56 Unfavorable 21 30 22 Hvn't hrd enough 17 18 21 REFUSED 1 2 1 17. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 60% 68% 57% 63% 63% 51% 64% 53% Unfavorable 13 13 13 13 9 17 13 12 Hvn't hrd enough 26 18 30 23 28 30 22 33 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 2 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 Feb 25 2015 2015 2015 Favorable 60 69 48 Unfavorable 13 9 15 Hvn't hrd enough 26 21 34 REFUSED 1 1 2 18. Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 55% 71% 65% 72% 52% 30% 52% 60% Unfavorable 27 19 18 17 23 47 29 24 Hvn't hrd enough 17 10 16 11 23 21 18 15 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 2 2 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 Feb 25 2015 2015 2015 Favorable 55 56 54 Unfavorable 27 28 23 Hvn't hrd enough 17 16 22 REFUSED 1 1 1 19. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 42% 52% 45% 48% 40% 35% 44% 38% Unfavorable 47 37 43 39 50 56 46 48 Hvn't hrd enough 10 10 10 11 9 8 8 12 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 20. Is your opinion of Scott Walker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 66% 77% 66% 77% 68% 45% 71% 57% Unfavorable 8 5 8 3 8 16 7 8 Hvn't hrd enough 26 18 25 20 25 39 22 34 REFUSED - - - - - 1 - - TREND: Is your opinion of Scott Walker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 Feb 25 2015 2015 2015 Favorable 66 59 57 Unfavorable 8 11 7 Hvn't hrd enough 26 29 36 REFUSED - 1 - 21. Would you say that - Jeb Bush is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 60% 46% 61% 53% 70% 63% 57% 66% No 28 39 25 31 22 28 33 20 DK/NA 12 15 14 16 8 9 10 15 TREND: Would you say that Jeb Bush is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 2015 2015 Yes 60 58 No 28 30 DK/NA 12 11 22. Would you say that - Scott Walker is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 71% 83% 72% 80% 75% 52% 75% 64% No 8 4 5 3 5 20 8 8 DK/NA 21 13 23 17 21 28 17 28 TREND: Would you say that Scott Walker is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 2015 2015 Yes 71 69 No 8 11 DK/NA 21 19 23. Would you say that - Rand Paul is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 72% 80% 71% 75% 74% 65% 77% 63% No 16 11 13 13 12 23 14 18 DK/NA 13 9 15 12 14 12 9 19 TREND: Would you say that Rand Paul is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 2015 2015 Yes 72 77 No 16 13 DK/NA 13 10 24. Would you say that - Marco Rubio is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 68% 73% 66% 70% 75% 58% 69% 66% No 10 9 9 11 6 13 11 8 DK/NA 22 18 25 19 20 29 20 26 TREND: Would you say that Marco Rubio is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 2015 2015 Yes 68 72 No 10 13 DK/NA 22 15 25. Would you say that - Ben Carson is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 74% 85% 74% 85% 72% 60% 76% 72% No 4 2 3 2 4 7 5 3 DK/NA 22 13 23 13 23 34 19 25 26. Would you say that - Mike Huckabee is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 83% 86% 89% 87% 90% 67% 83% 82% No 11 10 7 8 6 22 13 9 DK/NA 6 5 4 5 4 10 5 9 27. Would you say that - Jeb Bush has strong leadership qualities or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 68% 56% 69% 61% 78% 70% 66% 72% No 25 36 23 29 20 24 29 19 DK/NA 6 7 8 10 2 5 5 9 TREND: Would you say that Jeb Bush has strong leadership qualities or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 2015 2015 Yes 68 65 No 25 24 DK/NA 6 11 28. Would you say that - Scott Walker has strong leadership qualities or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 75% 87% 74% 82% 77% 60% 78% 69% No 7 3 5 3 6 16 7 7 DK/NA 18 11 21 15 18 24 14 25 TREND: Would you say that Scott Walker has strong leadership qualities or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 2015 2015 Yes 75 72 No 7 10 DK/NA 18 18 29. Would you say that - Rand Paul has strong leadership qualities or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 63% 72% 65% 68% 58% 61% 65% 59% No 25 20 20 21 29 27 26 23 DK/NA 12 8 15 11 13 12 9 18 TREND: Would you say that Rand Paul has strong leadership qualities or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 2015 2015 Yes 63 70 No 25 19 DK/NA 12 11 30. Would you say that - Marco Rubio has strong leadership qualities or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 65% 73% 64% 70% 68% 56% 66% 65% No 15 12 12 12 10 26 18 10 DK/NA 20 15 24 17 22 18 16 25 TREND: Would you say that Marco Rubio has strong leadership qualities or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 2015 2015 Yes 65 70 No 15 14 DK/NA 20 16 31. Would you say that - Ben Carson has strong leadership qualities or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 56% 66% 60% 69% 50% 44% 57% 56% No 15 15 10 13 15 17 18 10 DK/NA 29 19 30 18 35 40 26 34 32. Would you say that - Mike Huckabee has strong leadership qualities or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 70% 72% 78% 78% 67% 60% 68% 72% No 22 20 17 16 26 28 26 16 DK/NA 8 8 6 7 7 12 6 12 33. Would you say that - Jeb Bush cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 55% 46% 58% 48% 69% 53% 52% 59% No 35 43 32 40 24 38 39 29 DK/NA 10 11 10 12 6 9 8 12 TREND: Would you say that Jeb Bush cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 2015 2015 Yes 55 52 No 35 37 DK/NA 10 10 34. Would you say that - Scott Walker cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 71% 82% 71% 80% 75% 50% 74% 66% No 10 4 7 5 4 25 11 8 DK/NA 20 14 22 15 21 25 15 27 TREND: Would you say that Scott Walker cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 2015 2015 Yes 71 72 No 10 11 DK/NA 20 17 35. Would you say that - Rand Paul cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 70% 80% 70% 73% 69% 64% 73% 64% No 20 12 18 17 22 23 19 22 DK/NA 10 9 12 10 9 13 8 14 TREND: Would you say that Rand Paul cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 2015 2015 Yes 70 75 No 20 15 DK/NA 10 10 36. Would you say that - Marco Rubio cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 67% 73% 67% 71% 73% 55% 68% 65% No 13 11 9 13 6 21 15 11 DK/NA 20 16 24 16 21 24 17 24 TREND: Would you say that Marco Rubio cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 01 May 06 2015 2015 Yes 67 72 No 13 15 DK/NA 20 13 37. Would you say that - Ben Carson cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 72% 82% 74% 83% 73% 54% 73% 70% No 7 4 3 5 3 14 9 4 DK/NA 21 14 22 12 24 32 18 26 38. Would you say that - Mike Huckabee cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 77% 84% 86% 83% 82% 60% 76% 78% No 17 11 10 13 13 30 19 14 DK/NA 6 5 5 4 5 11 5 8 39. Which of these is the most important personal quality in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination for president: is it someone who is honest and trustworthy or is it someone who has strong leadership qualities or is it someone who cares about the needs and problems of people like you? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Honest/Trustworthy 47% 49% 55% 51% 46% 40% 48% 45% Strong leadership 36 35 31 35 35 36 37 34 Cares Needs/Problems 13 10 9 9 14 21 11 17 DK/NA 4 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 57. If Jeb Bush were elected president, do you think he'd mainly follow the same policies as his brother, George W. Bush, or come up with new policies? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Same policies 20% 30% 15% 20% 19% 20% 24% 13% New policies 69 61 73 65 74 70 67 72 DK/NA 12 9 12 15 7 9 9 15 57 & 57A. If Jeb Bush were elected president, do you think he'd mainly follow the same policies as his brother, George W. Bush, or come up with new policies? COMBINED WITH: (If same/new policies q57) Is that a good thing or a bad thing? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Q57 & Q57A COMBINED................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Same policies/Good 4% 6% 3% 5% 2% 4% 4% 3% Same policies/Bad 14 22 11 13 15 15 18 9 New policies/Good 53 37 54 41 62 62 50 56 New policies/Bad 10 17 12 17 4 6 11 8 DK/NA (57 or 57A) 19 19 20 24 17 12 17 23 58. If Jeb Bush were elected president, do you think he'd mainly follow the same policies as his father, George H.W. Bush, or come up with new policies? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Same policies 23% 34% 18% 23% 20% 25% 28% 15% New policies 66 55 70 63 72 67 63 72 DK/NA 11 11 12 15 8 7 10 13 58 & 58A. If Jeb Bush were elected president, do you think he'd mainly follow the same policies as his father, George H.W. Bush, or come up with new policies? COMBINED WITH: (If same/new policies q58) Is that a good thing or a bad thing? LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................. Q58 & Q58A COMBINED................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Same policies/Good 8% 10% 5% 7% 7% 11% 10% 4% Same policies/Bad 13 22 12 14 11 13 16 9 New policies/Good 50 33 53 39 61 59 47 57 New policies/Bad 10 16 10 16 5 7 11 9 DK/NA (58 or 58A) 18 19 20 24 16 11 16 21
