July 2, 2015 - Sanders Gains On Clinton In Iowa Dem Caucus, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Dems Say 4-1 Clinton Is Honest PDF format Sample and Methodology detail Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is gaining ground on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Iowa Democratic Caucus and now trails the front-runner 52 - 33 percent among likely Democratic Caucus participants, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Vice President Joseph Biden has 7 percent. This compares to a 60 - 15 percent Clinton lead over Sanders in a May 7 survey of likely Democratic caucus-goers by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In today's survey, former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley has 3 percent with one percent for former U.S. Sen. James Webb of Virginia. Another 5 percent are undecided. Among Democrats 7 percent say they would definitely not support Biden, Webb or former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee and 6 percent say they would not support Clinton. "Secretary Hillary Clinton should not be biting her fingernails over her situation in the Iowa caucus, but her lead is slipping and Sen. Bernie Sanders is making progress against her. Her 52 percent score among likely caucus-goers is still OK, but this is the first time she has been below 60 percent in Quinnipiac University's Iowa survey," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "But Sen. Sanders has more than doubled his showing and at 33 percent he certainly can't be ignored, especially with seven months until the actual voting. Iowa Democratic caucus-goers are generally considered more liberal than primary voters in most other states, a demographic that helps his insurgency against Secretary Clinton who is the choice of virtually the entire Democratic establishment." "The good news for Clinton in this survey is that despite problematic scores among the overall electorate regarding her honesty and ability to understand the needs of average folks, none of those negative ratings are showing up among her Democratic base, to which she remains an iconic figure," Brown added. "By overwhelming margins, likely Democratic caucus-goers themselves consider her to be honest; believe she understands the problems of average folks, and is a strong leader." Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants who describe themselves as "very liberal" go 47 percent for Sanders and 43 percent for Clinton. Clinton is up 54 - 36 percent among voters describing themselves as "somewhat liberal," and 60 - 17 percent among self-described "moderate" or "conservative" Democratic caucus-goers. Democratic caucus-goers give Clinton an 85 - 10 percent favorability rating. Voters say 75 - 18 percent she is honest and trustworthy, 95 - 4 percent that she has strong leadership qualities and 83 - 12 percent that she cares about their needs and problems. Sanders gets a 66 - 8 percent favorability rating. Voters say 71 - 5 percent he is honest and trustworthy, 62 - 11 percent he has strong leadership qualities and 72 - 7 percent that he cares about their needs and problems. Iowa Democratic caucus-goers say 65 - 28 percent that if Clinton is elected she will follow new policies, rather than the same policies as President Barack Obama. Voters say 73 - 20 percent that she'd follow new policies, not the policies of former President Bill Clinton. From June 20 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 761 likely Iowa Democratic Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 3. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Biden 7% 2% 6% 11% 8% 6% Chafee - - - - - - Clinton 52 43 54 60 46 56 O'Malley 3 4 2 3 3 2 Sanders 33 47 36 17 37 29 Webb 1 - - 1 1 - DK/NA 5 5 1 8 4 6 TREND: If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 02 May 07 Feb 26 2015 2015 2015 Biden 7 11 7 Chafee - - na Clinton 52 60 61 O'Malley 3 3 - Sanders 33 15 5 Webb 1 3 2 Warren na na 19 DK/NA 5 7 6 3A. (If candidate chosen q3) Who is your second choice: Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Biden 23% 15% 26% 27% 18% 26% Chafee 1 1 1 1 1 1 Clinton 26 36 30 17 31 23 O'Malley 7 6 6 8 9 5 Sanders 19 21 19 19 22 18 Webb 3 2 5 2 3 2 No first choice 5 5 1 8 4 6 DK/NA 16 15 13 19 13 19 3B. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb? COMBINED WITH: Who is your second choice...? (Note: Percentages add to more than 100%) LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... Q3 & Q3A COMBINED..................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Biden 30% 17% 33% 38% 26% 32% Chafee 1 1 1 1 1 1 Clinton 78 78 84 76 77 79 O'Malley 9 9 8 11 12 7 Sanders 52 68 55 36 59 47 Webb 3 2 5 4 4 2 TREND: If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb? COMBINED WITH: Who is your second choice...? (Note: Percentages add to more than 100%) LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 02 May 07 Feb 26 2015 2015 2015 Biden 30 42 35 Chafee 1 2 na Clinton 78 79 78 O'Malley 9 13 3 Sanders 52 25 14 Webb 3 6 5 Warren na na 40 4. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Biden 7% 9% 4% 7% 6% 8% Chafee 7 8 8 6 8 7 Clinton 6 3 5 8 7 5 O'Malley 4 3 6 4 4 4 Sanders 4 2 5 5 4 3 Webb 7 8 6 6 9 5 No/No one 59 58 63 57 61 57 DK/NA 16 16 16 17 13 19 TREND: Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 02 May 07 Feb 26 2015 2015 2015 Biden 7 7 12 Chafee 7 4 na Clinton 6 7 6 O'Malley 4 3 5 Sanders 4 6 3 Webb 7 4 4 Warren na na 3 No/No-one 59 59 60 DK/NA 16 20 18 40. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Favorable 80% 81% 85% 76% 82% 79% Unfavorable 12 11 8 13 9 13 Hvn't hrd enough 7 7 5 9 8 6 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 02 May 07 Feb 26 2015 2015 2015 Favorable 80 79 77 Unfavorable 12 15 15 Hvn't hrd enough 7 4 5 REFUSED 1 2 2 41. Is your opinion of Lincoln Chafee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Favorable 10% 10% 14% 9% 17% 6% Unfavorable 8 8 8 7 12 5 Hvn't hrd enough 81 82 78 82 71 88 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Lincoln Chafee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 02 May 07 2015 2015 Favorable 10 8 Unfavorable 8 3 Hvn't hrd enough 81 88 REFUSED 1 1 42. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Favorable 85% 88% 88% 82% 83% 87% Unfavorable 10 7 10 11 14 7 Hvn't hrd enough 3 3 1 5 3 3 REFUSED 2 2 - 2 - 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 02 May 07 Feb 26 2015 2015 2015 Favorable 85 83 90 Unfavorable 10 11 7 Hvn't hrd enough 3 4 1 REFUSED 2 2 1 43. Is your opinion of Martin O'Malley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Favorable 24% 25% 26% 23% 30% 19% Unfavorable 5 3 8 6 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 70 72 66 71 63 76 REFUSED 1 - - 1 - 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Martin O'Malley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 02 May 07 Feb 26 2015 2015 2015 Favorable 24 22 12 Unfavorable 5 3 3 Hvn't hrd enough 70 74 84 REFUSED 1 1 1 44. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Favorable 66% 82% 69% 49% 73% 60% Unfavorable 8 2 7 13 9 7 Hvn't hrd enough 26 15 23 38 17 33 REFUSED - - 1 - 1 - TREND: Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 02 May 07 Feb 26 2015 2015 2015 Favorable 66 44 39 Unfavorable 8 6 3 Hvn't hrd enough 26 50 56 REFUSED - - 1 45. Is your opinion of Jim Webb favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Favorable 18% 21% 19% 15% 23% 14% Unfavorable 6 8 5 4 10 3 Hvn't hrd enough 76 70 76 80 67 82 REFUSED - - - 1 1 - TREND: Is your opinion of Jim Webb favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 02 May 07 Feb 26 2015 2015 2015 Favorable 18 20 16 Unfavorable 6 4 4 Hvn't hrd enough 76 76 79 REFUSED - - 1 46. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Yes 75% 76% 77% 73% 75% 75% No 18 18 16 19 20 16 DK/NA 7 5 8 8 5 8 TREND: Would you say that Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 02 May 07 2015 2015 Yes 75 76 No 18 17 DK/NA 7 7 47. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Yes 71% 81% 76% 59% 81% 64% No 5 1 5 8 6 4 DK/NA 24 18 19 33 13 32 48. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton has strong leadership qualities or not? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Yes 95% 98% 96% 92% 92% 97% No 4 2 2 7 6 2 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 2 - TREND: Would you say that Hillary Clinton has strong leadership qualities or not? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 02 May 07 2015 2015 Yes 95 93 No 4 6 DK/NA 1 1 49. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders has strong leadership qualities or not? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Yes 62% 76% 65% 47% 68% 57% No 11 7 11 15 15 8 DK/NA 27 18 24 38 17 35 50. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Yes 83% 83% 83% 83% 81% 84% No 12 14 11 11 13 11 DK/NA 5 3 6 5 5 5 TREND: Would you say that Hillary Clinton cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS Jul 02 May 07 2015 2015 Yes 83 83 No 12 13 DK/NA 5 4 51. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Yes 72% 83% 73% 63% 79% 67% No 7 3 10 10 9 6 DK/NA 20 14 17 27 12 27 52. Which of these is the most important personal quality in deciding who to support for the Democratic nomination for president: is it someone who is honest and trustworthy or is it someone who has strong leadership qualities or is it someone who cares about the needs and problems of people like you? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Honest/Trustworthy 17% 17% 12% 20% 16% 18% Strong leadership 30 23 34 33 28 31 Cares Needs/Problems 48 57 51 40 53 45 DK/NA 5 3 3 7 3 6 60. If Hillary Clinton were elected president, do you think she'd mainly follow the same policies as Barack Obama or come up with new policies? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Same policies 28% 42% 25% 17% 35% 22% New policies 65 54 65 75 58 70 DK/NA 7 4 10 7 7 7 60 & 60A. If Hillary Clinton were elected president, do you think she'd mainly follow the same policies as Barack Obama or come up with new policies? COMBINED WITH: (If same/new policies q60) Is that a good thing or a bad thing? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... Q60 & Q60A COMBINED................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Same policies/Good 22% 32% 21% 15% 28% 18% Same policies/Bad 4 7 3 2 6 3 New policies/Good 56 44 58 65 50 59 New policies/Bad 2 1 2 3 2 2 DK/NA (Q60 or Q60A) 16 15 15 16 14 17 61. If Hillary Clinton were elected president, do you think she'd mainly follow the same policies as Bill Clinton or come up with new policies? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Same policies 20% 19% 21% 20% 29% 14% New policies 73 76 73 72 64 80 DK/NA 6 5 5 8 8 6 61 & 61A. If Hillary Clinton were elected president, do you think she'd mainly follow the same policies as Bill Clinton or come up with new policies? COMBINED WITH: (If same/new policies q61) Is that a good thing or a bad thing? LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS............... Q61 & Q61A COMBINED................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Same policies/Good 15% 14% 15% 16% 21% 10% Same policies/Bad 4 5 4 3 5 3 New policies/Good 68 72 68 67 60 74 New policies/Bad 2 1 3 3 1 3 DK/NA (Q61 or Q61A) 11 8 10 12 12 10
