July 15, 2008 - Women, Blacks Give Obama 9 - Point Lead Over McCain, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Men Are Split And Whites Tip To Republican

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With commanding leads among women and young voters and near unanimous support from black voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has a 50 - 41 percent lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of likely voters released today.

Independent voters split 44 - 44 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Sen. McCain has a slight 47 - 44 percent edge among men voters and a larger 49 - 42 percent lead among white voters.

But black voters back Sen. Obama 94 - 1 percent, while women support him 55 - 36 percent. Obama leads 63 - 31 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 48 - 44 percent among voters 35 to 54, while voters over 55 split with 45 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama.

The Democrat gets 44 percent to the Republican's 47 percent in red states, which went Republican by more than 5 percent in 2004, and leads 50 - 39 percent in purple or swing states.

"Sen. Barack Obama's national lead is solid - but it's not monolithic," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"His support in the black community is about as close to unanimous as you can get. Politicians say that the only uncertainty will be turnout. Sen. John McCain leads among white voters.

"As is usually the case, the outcome probably will be decided in the middle, among the independent voters, who are evenly split at this point."

"About one-fifth of those who voted for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries decline - so far, anyway - to come home to their party."

By a 55 - 29 percent margin, likely voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of Obama. McCain gets a 50 - 31 percent favorability.

A total of 88 percent of American voters say they are "entirely comfortable" or "somewhat comfortable" having a black President, but 9 percent are "somewhat uncomfortable" or "entirely uncomfortable." And 86 percent say Obama's race won't affect their vote.

A total of 64 percent of voters say they are "entirely comfortable" or "somewhat comfortable" with a President who is 72 years old, while 34 percent are "somewhat uncomfortable" or "entirely uncomfortable." Because of his age, 20 percent say they are less likely to vote for McCain, while 75 percent say it won't make a difference.

The economy is the single most important issue in their vote, 53 percent of American voters say, followed by 16 percent who list the war in Iraq and 11 percent who list health care.

Obama leads McCain 53 - 39 percent among those who list the economy, 65 - 27 percent among those who cite the war and 67 - 27 percent among those worried about health care.

"We note with a grain of salt that voters tell us they're not prejudiced against Obama because of race, or that only 20 percent are worried about McCain's age," Carroll said.

Democrats say 56 - 33 percent that Obama should pick New York Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate. But independent voters reject the idea 50 - 35 percent and voters overall reject it 49 - 36 percent.

Bush and Iraq

Likely voters nationwide disapprove 67 - 26 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing and say 59 - 34 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.

But by a 51 - 43 percent margin, voters support McCain's plan to keep U.S. troops in Iraq without a fixed withdrawal timetable, rather than Obama's plan to begin an immediate withdrawal with an 18-month timetable.

"The overall numbers show a big partisan split on the war in Iraq. Almost three-fourths of Republicans think it was the right thing to do. Democratic denunciation is overwhelming," Carroll said. "And by the slimmest of majorities, voters back McCain's plan to keep troops in Iraq as long as it takes."

From July 8 -13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,725 likely voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Obama                50%    10%    84%    44%    44%    55%    42%    94%    56%
McCain               41     85      8     44     47     36     49      1     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      4      2      2      2      -      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      3      6      8      7      7      7      5      6
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q4.....................
                                                 Illeg
                     War    Econ   Terr   HlthCr Immig  Red    Blue   Purple
 
Obama                65%    53%     7%    67%    17%    44%    57%    50%
McCain               27     39     87     27     73     47     35     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      -      -      4      3      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      6      5      6      5      6      7      8
 
                                          WHITE..................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                63%    48%    44%    40%    46%    37%    47%    29%    39%
McCain               31     44     45     50     46     54     44     61     54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      1      3      3      2      2      3      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      7      9      7      6      7      6      7      6
 
                     PresVt2004..  DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ11
                     Bush   Kerry  Clintn Obama  App    Dis
 
Obama                15%    81%    66%    89%    12%    68%
McCain               79     10     22      7     81     23
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      5      1      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      6      7      2      5      7
 
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED VOTERS.....................................
                        Jul 15  May 14  Oct 31  Aug 15  Jun 13  May 3   Feb 21
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Obama                   44      47      43      43      43      42      43
McCain                  37      40      43      39      41      42      43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       3       3       3       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       4       3       4       4       2       4
DK/NA                   14       8       8      11      10      12      10
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......
                     CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1..
                            CAND CHOICEQ1
                     Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              76%    80%    71%
Might change         23     18     28
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Favorable            55%    25%    83%    50%    52%    58%    50%    87%    62%
Unfavorable          29     57      7     30     33     25     33      1     21
Hvn't hrd enough     13     17      8     17     12     15     14      9     12
REFUSED               3      2      3      3      3      3      3      3      5
 
 
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Favorable            50%    79%    28%    52%    55%    45%    57%    16%    45%
Unfavorable          31     10     50     26     30     32     28     48     37
Hvn't hrd enough     15      8     18     18     11     19     12     30     13
REFUSED               4      3      4      3      4      4      3      6      5
 
 
4. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Terrorism             7%    18%     2%     5%     9%     6%     9%     3%     4%
The war in Iraq      16     13     21     14     16     16     16     16     18
The economy          53     45     55     56     56     50     51     60     55
Illegal immigration   6     10      2      7      7      5      7      1      6
Health care          11      7     13     11      7     15     10     16     11
SOMETHING ELSE (VOL)  3      4      1      5      3      3      3      2      2
DK/NA                 4      2      5      3      2      5      4      2      4
 
 
5. If you honestly assessed yourself, thinking in general about - An African-American president of the United States, is that something you'd be entirely comfortable with, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable with?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Entirely
 Comfortable         71%    64%    76%    71%    70%    72%    70%    76%    75%
Smwht
 Comfortable         17     19     16     17     18     16     17     14     16
Smwht
 Uncomfortable        6      6      6      4      5      6      6      5      3
Entirely
 Uncomfortable        3      6      1      3      3      3      3      2      2
DK/NA                 4      5      2      4      4      4      4      3      4
 
 
6. If you honestly assessed yourself, thinking in general about - Someone entering office as president of the United States at age 72, is that something you'd be entirely comfortable with, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable with?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Entirely
 Comfortable         37%    56%    20%    41%    42%    32%    40%    21%    35%
Smwht
 Comfortable         27     32     24     26     28     26     29     14     23
Smwht
 Uncomfortable       23      7     35     23     20     26     22     29     28
Entirely
 Uncomfortable       11      2     19      9      7     13      6     32     10
DK/NA                 2      3      2      2      2      2      2      5      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......
                     18-34  35-54  55+
 
Entirely
 Comfortable         31%    39%    38%
Smwht
 Comfortable         26     27     27
Smwht
 Uncomfortable       29     22     20
Entirely
 Uncomfortable       13      9     11
DK/NA                 -      2      3
 
 
7. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72- Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely           3%     4%     2%     2%     2%     3%     3%     1%     2%
Less likely          20      6     31     21     17     23     18     36     20
Doesn't make diff    75     90     64     76     79     72     78     61     76
DK/NA                 2      -      3      1      2      1      1      3      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......
                     18-34  35-54  55+
 
More likely           1%     2%     4%
Less likely          21     19     21
Doesn't make diff    77     76     73
DK/NA                 1      2      2
 
 
8. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely           7%     1%    14%     4%     5%     9%     4%    30%     9%
Less likely           5      7      4      5      5      4      6      2      4
Doesn't make diff    86     91     80     90     87     86     89     65     83
DK/NA                 2      1      2      1      2      1      1      4      4
 
 
9. Would you like Barack Obama to pick Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Yes                  36%     9%    56%    35%    29%    42%    31%    57%    38%
No                   49     71     33     50     54     45     53     33     44
DK/NA                15     20     11     15     17     13     16      9     18
 
 
10. If Barack Obama chooses Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely          19%     2%    31%    18%    14%    23%    17%    27%    18%
Less likely          24     46      5     28     28     21     29      4     23
Doesn't make diff    55     51     63     52     56     54     53     68     56
DK/NA                 2      1      1      2      1      2      2      1      2
 
 
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Approve              26%    58%     7%    21%    28%    25%    31%     7%    19%
Disapprove           67     30     90     73     66     69     63     89     75
DK/NA                 6     12      3      6      6      7      7      4      6
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Approve              14%    15%    19%     8%    13%    15%    15%    15%    16%
Disapprove           77     76     74     84     80     75     77     76     76
DK/NA                 9      9      8      9      7     10      8     10      8
 
 
14. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Very satisfied        2%     4%     1%     1%     3%     1%     2%     1%     1%
Smwht satisfied      15     30      7     11     16     14     17      5     14
Smwht dissatisfied   40     43     37     44     41     40     41     41     40
Very dissatisfied    42     22     55     44     39     44     39     52     43
DK/NA                 1      2      1      -      1      1      1      1      2
 
 
15. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Right thing          34%    71%    11%    32%    41%    29%    39%    11%    29%
Wrong thing          59     22     84     60     54     63     55     81     65
DK/NA                 7      7      5      8      5      8      6      7      5
 
 
16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq - Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops with a fixed date to have them all out within 18 months OR Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable and then begin to withdraw them without a fixed date for full withdrawal?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Immediate withdrawal/
 fixed date          43%    17%    64%    40%    38%    48%    39%    70%    49%
Keep troops/without
 a fixed date        51     79     30     56     59     45     56     28     43
DK/NA                 5      4      6      4      4      7      5      2      8
 
 
17. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Getting ahead        12%    15%    10%    13%    14%    10%    12%    14%    14%
Falling behind       22     12     26     25     18     26     21     29     25
Holding steady       65     71     63     62     67     63     66     57     60
DK/NA                 1      2      1      -      1      1      1      -      1
 
 
18. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- a. Declining retirement fund values b. Declining real estate values c. Rising health care costs d. Rising gasoline prices e. Rising food prices
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
a. Retirement funds  10%    10%    10%     9%     9%    10%    10%     9%    10%
b. Real estate vals   6      8      7      4      8      5      6      7      7
c. Health care cost  16     11     16     20     15     17     17     12     15
d. Gasoline prices   50     54     47     50     51     49     50     47     50
e. Food prices       12     11     15     11     12     13     12     18     11
DK/NA                 6      6      5      5      5      6      5      7      7