May 31, 2013 - American Voters Like Clinton Over Paul, Jeb Bush, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Congress Won't Fix Immigration, Voters Say 3-1

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In an early look at the 2016 presidential campaign, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky 49 - 41 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 48 - 40 percent, but Vice President Joseph Biden trails Bush 44 - 38 percent and falls behind Paul 43 - 39 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Ms. Clinton gets a 52 - 40 percent favorability rating, down from an all-time high 61 - 34 percent in a February 8 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Favorability ratings for other possible 2016 presidential contenders are:
  • Biden: Negative 37 - 44 percent;
  • Paul: Positive 32 - 24 percent, with 42 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion;
  • Bush: 29 - 29 percent, with 42 percent who haven't formed an opinion.
Looking at immigration, 54 percent of American voters support a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, while 12 percent say these immigrants can stay but not become citizens and 29 percent say they should be deported. Those numbers are virtually identical to the results in Quinnipiac University's May 2 survey, but both represent a drop from April, before the Boston bombing, when 59 percent backed a path to citizenship.

Voters say 71 - 24 percent, however, that Democrats and Republicans in Congress will not be able to work together to achieve immigration reform.

"Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains the queen of the 2016 hill at this point, but the wide gap between her and some of the leading Republican contenders on favorability may be closing, as her overall favorability has taken a hit," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Her score is down substantially from her all-time high score in February. The drop in her favorability is substantial among men, Republicans and independent voters. One reason for her drop may be that 48 percent of voters blame her either a little or a lot for the death of the American ambassador in Benghazi," Brown added.

In the hypothetical race between Clinton and Jeb Bush, she carries Democrats 92 - 3 percent, but loses Republicans 82 - 8 percent and splits independent voters 42 - 43 percent. She wins women 55 - 35 percent, but loses men 45 - 40 percent.

Clinton gets a 91 - 4 percent favorability among Democrats and a 46 - 42 percent favorability from independent voters, with a negative 18 - 77 percent favorability from Republicans. Women are favorable 59 - 32 percent, while men are negative 44 - 50 percent.

In February, she was 91 - 5 percent favorable among Democrats, negative 27 - 68 percent among Republicans and 59 - 35 percent positive among independents. She was 53 - 42 favorable among men and 68 - 27 percent favorable among women.

"If Ms. Clinton chooses not to run in 2016, the potential Democratic field could include a somewhat unpopular vice president and a number of new faces who are unknown to the vast majority of Americans," said Brown. "The potential Republican candidates include many unknowns also. Some of them, however, lead the incumbent vice president and outscore him when it comes to overall voter favorability."

One thing voters of all parties agree upon is that Congress will not be able to pass an immigration reform bill: 78 percent of Republicans, 61 percent of Democrats and 76 percent of independent voters say Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill won't be able to agree.

"There isn't a lot of confidence outside the Beltway in the ability of those in Congress to play nice and be productive," said Brown.

From May 22 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,419 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Clinton              48%     8%    92%    42%    40%    55%    40%    88%    56%
Bush                 40     82      3     43     45     35     47      8     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      -      4      5      1      3      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      -      4      3      3      3      -      4
DK/NA                 7      5      5      7      7      7      7      3      7
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv   Mltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No   HsHld
 
Clinton              49%    35%    30%    42%    30%    48%    20%    39%    37%
Bush                 41     50     58     45     55     40     67     47     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      3      1      5      1      4      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      4      3      3      3      3      3      4      3
DK/NA                 6      8      6      8      7      7      6      8      8
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Clinton              52%    47%    53%    44%    43%    51%    49%    49%    43%
Bush                 37     40     36     43     43     33     37     40     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      2      3      3      6      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      2      3      5      2      5      3      2
DK/NA                 6      7      6      7      7      9      7      6      6
 
 
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Clinton              49%    10%    92%    41%    40%    57%    41%    86%    57%
Paul                 41     78      3     45     49     33     48      7     29
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      -      4      2      2      2      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      1      4      3      2      2      2      6
DK/NA                 6      7      4      7      7      6      7      2      5
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv   Mltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No   HsHld
 
Clinton              50%    36%    31%    44%    30%    51%    21%    41%    39%
Paul                 40     52     58     45     58     39     68     46     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      2      1      2      1      2      1      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      2      3      2      2      2      3      2
DK/NA                 5      8      7      7      8      7      7      8      7
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Clinton              54%    47%    53%    46%    44%    51%    51%    49%    43%
Paul                 36     43     36     44     49     35     41     41     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      3      1      1      6      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      3      2      -      2      3      3
DK/NA                 5      7      6      6      3      7      5      5      8
 
 
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Biden                38%     3%    84%    26%    33%    43%    31%    80%    38%
Bush                 44     84      6     50     49     39     51     10     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      3      1      6      5      3      4      1      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      2      4      6      5      5      5      5      4
DK/NA                 9      7      4     12      7     10      9      5      8
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv   Mltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No   HsHld
 
Biden                38%    27%    21%    34%    24%    37%    12%    32%    30%
Bush                 48     53     61     51     59     45     70     51     51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       5      3      4      2      5      3      4      3      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      6      4      3      5      4      4      4      4
DK/NA                 6     11      9     11      8     10     10     11     11
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Biden                41%    37%    42%    36%    36%    41%    37%    39%    36%
Bush                 43     44     41     48     48     42     41     44     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       5      3      4      4      4      5      6      4      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      5      5      5      6      3      7      5      4
DK/NA                 6     10      9      7      6      9      9      9      9
 
 
8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Biden                39%     4%    86%    27%    35%    43%    31%    82%    53%
Paul                 43     80      5     50     49     38     51      8     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      1      5      4      3      3      1      5
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      2      5      3      4      3      -      3
DK/NA                11     10      6     13      9     13     11      9      6
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv   Mltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No   HsHld
 
Biden                39%    27%    22%    37%    25%    36%    14%    32%    33%
Paul                 45     53     59     48     59     44     68     49     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      3      4      3      4      3      4      2      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      3      5      4      3      2      4      3
DK/NA                 7     13     12      7      9     13     12     13     11
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Biden                43%    38%    44%    38%    35%    45%    35%    42%    36%
Paul                 41     44     38     47     52     38     45     44     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       5      3      4      2      2      3      4      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      3      4      4      3      2      3      4
DK/NA                 7     13     11      9      6     11     13      8     14
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            52%    18%    91%    46%    44%    59%    46%    87%    59%
Unfavorable          40     77      4     42     50     32     46      5     33
Hvn't hrd enough      7      4      4     10      5      8      7      6      9
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      1      1      1      -
 
                     HEARD OR READ ABOUT BENGHAZI Q30
 
Favorable            51%
Unfavorable          43
Hvn't hrd enough      5
REFUSED               1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     May 31  Feb 08  May 14  Oct 31  Aug 15  Feb 08  May 03
                     2013    2013    2008    2007    2007    2013    2007
 
Favorable            52      61      47      46      48      61      44
Unfavorable          40      34      44      46      43      34      46
Hvn't hrd enough      7       4       7       6       6       4       7
REFUSED               1       1       2       2       3       1       3
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            37%     9%    72%    27%    34%    39%    31%    71%    38%
Unfavorable          44     74      9     51     51     38     52      8     31
Hvn't hrd enough     19     15     18     21     14     23     17     21     30
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      -      1      1      -      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     May 31  Feb 08  Nov 12
                     2013    2013    2008
 
Favorable            37      46      50
Unfavorable          44      41      23
Hvn't hrd enough     19      11      25
REFUSED               1       2       2
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            32%    56%     6%    37%    40%    26%    37%     7%    23%
Unfavorable          24      6     44     23     25     24     22     36     25
Hvn't hrd enough     42     37     49     39     34     50     40     56     49
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      4
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            29%    49%    10%    32%    35%    24%    30%    16%    33%
Unfavorable          29      8     48     26     28     29     26     40     27
Hvn't hrd enough     42     43     41     40     36     46     43     44     40
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     May 31  Feb 08
                     2013    2013
 
Favorable            29      25
Unfavorable          29      29
Hvn't hrd enough     42      45
REFUSED               1       2
 
 
27. Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are currently living in the United States? A) They should be allowed to stay in the United States and to eventually apply for US citizenship. B) They should be allowed to remain in the United States, but not be allowed to apply for U.S. citizenship. C) They should be required to leave the U.S.
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
A) Stay/Citizenship  54%    39%    72%    52%    51%    56%    50%    74%    60%
B) Stay/Not citizen  12     15      7     13     14     10     11      8     25
C) Not stay          29     40     17     31     31     28     34     15      9
DK/NA                 5      7      4      4      4      6      5      3      6
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv   Mltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No   HsHld
 
A) Stay/Citizenship  64%    42%    46%    44%    46%    53%    44%    47%    47%
B) Stay/Not citizen  13     11     10     15     13     10     10     13     12
C) Not stay          20     41     38     36     38     30     40     34     34
DK/NA                 3      6      6      5      3      6      5      6      7
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
A) Stay/Citizenship  65%    49%    52%    54%    58%    53%    54%    53%    54%
B) Stay/Not citizen  13     11     11     13     14     12     14     11     10
C) Not stay          19     34     31     30     25     33     28     30     27
DK/NA                 4      6      6      3      4      2      3      6      8
 
TREND: Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are currently living in the United States? A) They should be allowed to stay in the United States and to eventually apply for US citizenship. B) They should be allowed to remain in the United States, but not be allowed to apply for U.S. citizenship. C) They should be required to leave the U.S.
                     May 31  May 02  Apr 04  Feb 07  Dec 05
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2012
 
A)Stay/Citizenship   54      52      59      56      57
B)Stay/Not citizen   12      11      11      10      11
C)Not stay           29      30      25      30      26
DK/NA                 5       6       5       4       5
 
 
28. Do you think Republicans and Democrats in Congress will be able to work together to pass comprehensive immigration reform this year or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  24%    17%    33%    21%    24%    23%    20%    39%    35%
No                   71     78     61     76     72     70     74     53     65
DK/NA                 5      5      7      4      4      6      6      8      -
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv   Mltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No   HsHld
 
Yes                  27%    16%    19%    22%    20%    20%    19%    20%    20%
No                   69     77     75     72     76     73     76     74     75
DK/NA                 4      6      5      6      4      7      5      7      5
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Yes                  26%    22%    23%    23%    24%    26%    21%    24%    23%
No                   71     72     69     75     73     71     75     71     68
DK/NA                 4      6      7      2      2      3      4      5      8
 
 
29. If a candidate for Congress supports a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
More likely          26%    15%    38%    26%    27%    26%    24%    30%    44%
Less likely          24     36     12     25     26     23     28     11     15
No difference        44     42     46     45     43     46     43     57     39
DK/NA                 5      7      4      4      5      6      6      3      2
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv   Mltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No   HsHld
 
More likely          36%    17%    19%    24%    23%    24%    15%    23%    19%
Less likely          19     32     32     31     30     26     39     26     28
No difference        41     44     41     40     43     43     39     45     48
DK/NA                 4      7      8      5      4      7      6      6      4
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
More likely          37%    21%    23%    27%    36%    35%    32%    24%    20%
Less likely          18     27     25     23     23     23     21     26     26
No difference        42     46     47     45     37     42     41     46     46
DK/NA                 3      6      5      5      4      -      7      5      8
 
 

Demographic Summary