February 2, 2004 - Kerry Tops All Dems And Leads Bush By 8 Points, Nationwide Poll By Quinnipiac University Finds; President's Approval Below 50 Percent For First Time
In a nationwide survey, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry now leads President George W. Bush 51 - 43 percent according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Looking at the Democratic primary, the Kerry juggernaut has rolled up 42 percent, 30 points higher than any other Presidential primary contender.

American voters give President Bush a 48 - 45 percent approval, the first time he has dropped below 50 percent. While Kerry is the only Democrat ahead of Bush, all Democratic contenders have gained ground on the President.

Kerry had 30 percent of Democratic primary voters in a pre-New Hampshire January 26 national poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest survey, Kerry gets 42 percent of Democrats to Howard Dean's 11 percent, followed by North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and former Gen. Wesley Clark with 10 percent each and Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman with 6 percent. No other candidate tops 5 percent, with 14 percent undecided.

"Talk about bounce. Sen. Kerry's on a trampoline that has him soaring past the other Democrats and even past President Bush. What bounces up, can bounce down and the question is whether Kerry can stay on up and turn some of those Republican red states into Democratic blue in November," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Looking at some issues which will play out in the Presidential campaign:
  • 54 percent of American voters say the federal budget deficit is a "very serious" problem, while 34 percent call it "somewhat serious;"
  • Voters say 52 - 42 percent that going to war in Iraq was the right thing to do;
  • Voters oppose 53- 40 percent civil unions for same-sex couples;
  • Voters oppose 61 - 34 percent a law allowing same-sex couples to marry;
  • 67 - 21 percent voters say the economy will matter more than Iraq in deciding how they vote;
  • Voters say 52 - 40 percent a Democrat will do a better job on the economy than President Bush;
  • Voters split 47 - 45 percent on whether Bush or a Democrat will do better job on Iraq.
"Trouble for President Bush: Almost every American is worried about the federal deficit. Trouble for the Democrats: Most Americans disapprove of any form of recognition for same-sex couples," Carroll said.

Only 2 percent of Democrats admire Bush and 18 percent are "satisfied" with him, but 51 percent are "dissatisfied" and 26 percent are "angry" with the President.

In possible 2004 presidential matchups, Kerry beats Bush 51 - 43 percent, compared to a 49 - 45 percent Bush lead January 26. Bush beats all other Democrats:
  • 49 - 44 percent over Dean, down from 54 - 38 percent January 26;
  • 47 - 45 percent over Edwards, down from 50 - 42 percent;
  • 48 - 45 percent over Clark, down from 51 - 41 percent;
  • 49 - 44 percent over Lieberman, down from 53 - 39 percent.
From January 28 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,219 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. The survey includes 420 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service a d for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                       App     Dis     DK/NA


Feb 2, 2004 48% 45% 7% Jan 26, 2004 53 40 8 Dec 10, 2003 51 43 6 Oct 29, 2003 51 42 7 Sep 17,2003 53 39 7 Jul 24, 2003 53 41 6 Jun 11, 2003 57 35 8 Apr 16, 2003 73 22 5 Mar 6, 2003 53 39 8 Feb 4, 2003 54 39 7 Nov 13, 2002 62 30 8 Feb 22, 2002 76 16 8 Dec 11, 2001 83 11 6



TREND: Now I'm going to name seven Democrats running for president this year. After I read all seven names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president this year. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?

               Democrats........................................................
               Feb     Jan     Dec     Oct     Sep     Jul     Jun    Mar    Feb
               2004    2004    2003    2003    2003    2003    2003   2003   2003
                                       
Lieberman       6%      8%     13%     13%     14%     21%     22%    21%    27%   
Kerry          42      30       8      10      13      13      15     12     18    
Gephardt       na      na       9      12      13      16      17     17     16    
Edwards        10      14       5       8       7       4       5      8     14    
Dean           11      17      22      13      14      10       5      4      3    
Sharpton        5       4       8       5       4       6       5      5      6    
Graham         na      na      na      na       4       3       6      6     na    
Moseley-Braun  na      na       3       3       7       4       4      7     na
Kucinich        1       1       2       3       2       2       1      2     na
Clark          10      14      12      17      na      na      na     na     na
DK/NA          14      12      18      17      21      21      21     18     16




1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 48% 87% 19% 48% 51% 45% Disapprove 45 7 74 45 42 47 DK/NA 7 6 7 7 6 8



2. Now I'm going to name seven Democrats running for president this year. After I read all seven names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president this year. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?

                       Dem


Lieberman 6% Kerry 42 Edwards 10 Dean 11 Sharpton 5 Kucinich 1 Clark 10 DK/NA 14



3. If you had to choose, would you rather see the Democrats nominate Howard Dean or John Kerry for President this year?

                       Dem


Dean 23% Kerry 64 DK/NA 13



4. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Wesley Clark the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clark 45% 6% 78% 42% 40% 49% Bush 48 91 14 49 53 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 1 2 DK/NA 5 2 6 5 4 6



5. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lieberman the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Lieberman 44% 5% 77% 41% 39% 48% Bush 49 92 15 51 56 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 3 3 2 3 DK/NA 4 3 4 4 2 5



6. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Kerry 51% 6% 88% 49% 48% 54% Bush 43 89 9 44 48 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 DK/NA 4 4 2 5 3 5



7. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Howard Dean the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Dean 44% 4% 77% 42% 39% 48% Bush 49 93 16 50 56 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 4 2 5 4 3 5



8. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Edwards 45% 6% 78% 42% 40% 49% Bush 47 91 14 48 53 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 2 1 DK/NA 6 3 7 6 4 7



9. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Al Sharpton the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Sharpton 33% 2% 60% 28% 29% 36% Bush 57 96 24 61 63 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 3 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 - 6 4 3 4 DK/NA 4 2 6 5 4 5



10. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Dennis Kucinich the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Kucinich 34% 2% 63% 28% 28% 39% Bush 54 94 21 57 60 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 4 4 3 3 DK/NA 7 3 10 8 6 9



11. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Very satisfied 14% 32% 3% 11% 17% 11% Smwht satisfied 35 54 19 36 37 34 Smwht dissatisfied 26 9 34 30 21 29 Very dissatisfied 24 4 42 23 24 25 DK/NA 1 1 2 - 1 1



12. How would you describe your feelings toward President Bush: admire, satisfied, dissatisfied, or angry?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Admire 17% 44% 2% 13% 18% 16% Satisfied 33 47 18 36 36 31 Dissatisfied 32 8 51 31 31 32 Angry 16 1 26 19 14 18 DK/NA 2 1 3 1 - 3



13. Who do you think would do a better job on the economy - the current Bush administration or a new Democratic administration?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bush admin 40% 84% 9% 39% 44% 36% Democratic admin 52 9 87 50 49 55 DK/NA 8 7 5 12 7 9



14. Who do you think would do a better job on Iraq - the current Bush administration or a new Democratic administration?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bush admin 47% 89% 15% 47% 51% 43% Democratic admin 45 6 76 43 41 48 DK/NA 9 5 9 10 8 9



15. Which issue will matter more in deciding how you vote for President this year -- Iraq or the economy?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Iraq 21% 17% 19% 26% 20% 21% Economy 67 68 72 64 69 66 DK/NA 12 16 9 10 11 13



16. How serious a problem do you think the federal budget deficit is -- very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious or not at all serious?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Very serious 54% 32% 71% 55% 50% 58% Smwht serious 34 48 23 32 33 35 Not too serious 8 14 3 9 11 5 No at all serious 3 6 1 4 5 2 DK/NA 1 - 2 1 1 1



17. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Right thing 52% 88% 27% 49% 57% 48% Wrong thing 42 8 66 46 38 45 DK/NA 6 4 8 6 5 7



18. Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to form civil unions, giving them many of the legal rights of married couples?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Support 40% 24% 45% 49% 35% 45% Oppose 53 71 47 43 59 47 DK/NA 7 6 8 7 6 8



19. Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to get married?
                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Support 34% 19% 40% 40% 29% 39% Oppose 61 77 54 55 66 56 DK/NA 5 4 6 5 6 5



20. As you may know on Tuesday, March second, a number of states, including New York and California, will hold Democratic primaries for president on what is known as Super Tuesday. Do you think that Super Tuesday will be important to decide the nomination, or do you think the contest will have already been decided before March second?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Important 45% 42% 49% 44% 45% 45% Already decided 46 48 41 50 47 45 DK/NA 9 10 10 7 8 11



21. (If Democrat)When the Democratic party nominates its Presidential candidate, which quality do you think should be more important - the candidate's ability to defeat George W. Bush or the candidate's views on the issues?

                       Dem


Defeat Bush 23% Views on issues 70 DK/NA 7