July 24, 2004 - More Voters, Including 24 % Of Dems, Say Bush Will Win, Nationwide Poll By Quinnipiac University Finds; Bush And Kerry Run Neck And Neck
By a 47 - 36 percent margin, American voters expect President George W. Bush to be reelected, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Those expecting President Bush to win, rather than Democratic challenger John Kerry, include 24 percent of Democrats, 78 percent of Republicans and 42 percent of independent voters.

In the matchup, Sen. Kerry gets 44 percent to 43 percent for Bush, with 4 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader. With Nader out of the race, Sen. Kerry is ahead 46 - 43 percent.

This compares to 43 percent for President Bush and 42 percent for Sen. Kerry, with 6 percent for Nader, in a May 24 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

American voters split 46 - 46 percent in their approval of Bush, compared to a negative 45 - 50 percent approval rating May 26..

"Oh, ye of little faith. One-fourth of Democratic voters think their candidate will lose. Compare that with only 11 percent of Republicans who think President Bush is going back to the ranch," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Sen. Kerry got almost no bounce from his selection of Sen. John Edwards as a running mate and is still locked in a horse race with the incumbent. This increases the pressure on the challenger to light a fire - a big fire - at the convention this week."

In an open-ended question, where voters can give any answer, 25 percent of Americans list the war as the most important problem facing the nation today, followed by 21 percent who list the economy or jobs and 15 percent who list terrorism or safety.

Kerry would do a better job on the economy, voters say 49 - 41 percent, while by the same 49 - 41 percent margin, voters say Bush would do a better job handling Iraq.

"Americans aren't persuaded by inside-the-Beltway chatter about Vice President Richard Cheney being dumped and say 54 - 31 percent that Bush should keep him on the ticket," Carroll said.

American voters oppose same-sex civil unions 55 - 40 percent and oppose gay marriage 63 - 31 percent. But they oppose 55 - 39 percent amending the U.S. Constitution to ban same-sex marriage.

While Americans remain divided on the abortion issue, they disapprove 61 - 25 percent of statements by some Catholic Church leaders that they would deny communion to John Kerry because of his position on abortion. And voters say 65 - 26 percent that it is wrong for Catholic Church leaders to attempt to pressure Catholic politicians on issues such as abortion.

"The Boston convention site is a mixed bag for Democrats: Massachusetts has legalized gay marriage, which American voters oppose 2 - 1," Carroll said. "But Americans don't want to mess with the Constitution to address gay marriage."

From July 18 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,551 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        App   Dis   DK/NA
                        
Jul 24, 2004            46    46     8
May 26, 2004            45    50     5
May 5, 2004             46    47     7
Mar 24, 2004            49    44     7
Feb 2, 2004             48    45     7  
Jan 26, 2004            53    40     8 
Dec 10, 2003            51    43     6              
Oct 29, 2003            51    42     7 
Sep 17,2003             53    39     7
Jul 24, 2003            53    41     6 
Jun 11, 2003            57    35     8 
Apr 16, 2003            73    22     5
Mar 6, 2003             53    39     8
Feb 4, 2003             54    39     7
Nov 13, 2002            62    30     8
Feb 22, 2002            76    16     8
Dec 11, 2001            83    11     6




TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                    SMONE WLDN'T
                        JK    GWB   ELSE  VOTE  DK/NA 
                         
Jul 24, 2004            46    43     1     2     8
May 26, 2004            45    45     2     1     8
May 5, 2004             43    44     2     1     9
Mar 24, 2004            43    46     2     1     7
Feb 2, 2004             51    43     1     1     4
Jan 26, 2004            45    49     -     1     5
Dec 10, 2003            39    51     2     2     6
Oct 29, 2003            43    49     1     1     5 
Sep 17, 2003            38    53     2     2     6
Jul 24, 2003            40    51     1     1     7 
Jun 11, 2003            37    53     2     1     6    
Feb 6, 2003             42    50     1     1     7    




TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote?

                                          SMONE WLDN'T
                        JK    GWB   RN    ELSE  VOTE  DK/NA 
                       
Jul 24, 2004            44    43     4     -     1     8
May 26, 2004            42    43     6     1     1     7
May 5, 2004             40    43     6     1     1     9
Mar 24, 2004            40    46     6     1     1     6




TREND: Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                          Hvn't
                        Fav   UnFav Mixed heard REFUSED 
                     
Jul 24, 2004            40    35    22     2     1
May 26, 2004            40    39    18     2     1
May 5, 2004             40    39    19     2     1
Mar 24, 2004            45    34    18     2     1




TREND: Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                          Hvn't
                        Fav   UnFav Mixed heard REFUSED 
                       
Jul 24, 2004            31    29    26    13     1
May 26, 2004            26    29    29    16     1
May 5, 2004             27    29    27    15     1
Mar 24, 2004            30    27    23    19     1




TREND: Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                          Hvn't
                        Fav   UnFav Mixed heard REFUSED 
                        
Jul 24, 2004            13    27    18    40     2
May 26, 2004            10    28    19    42     1
May 5, 2004             14    27    18    39     2
Mar 24, 2004            14    28    18    37     3




TREND: In general how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                        Very  Smwht Smwht Very
                        sat   sat   dis   dis   DK/NA
                   
Jul 24, 2004             9    37    28    25     1
May 26, 2004             8    33    24    34     1
May 5, 2004             10    34    29    26     1
Mar 24, 2004            12    36    27    24     1
Feb 2, 2004             14    35    26    24     1
Jan 26, 2004            15    36    25    23     1
Dec 10, 2003            12    33    27    26     1
Oct 29, 2003            10    38    25    26     1 
Sep 17, 2003            12    38    22    28     1
Jul 24, 2003            13    34    27    24     2
Jun 11, 2003            17    38    22    22     1
Apr 17, 2003            19    46    20    14     1
Mar 6, 2003              9    35    28    26     1
Feb 4, 2003             11    36    27    25     1
Nov 13, 2002            12    43    27    17     1
Feb 22, 2002            15    52    21    11     1
Dec 11, 2001            21    47    19    10     3




1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Approve 46% 84% 11% 43% 49% 43% 52% 20% 27% Disapprove 46 11 82 48 45 47 41 71 62 DK/NA 8 5 7 9 6 9 7 9 11



2. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


A lot 46% 52% 47% 41% 52% 40% 48% 35% 37% Some 33 32 32 37 29 37 32 41 26 Only a little 16 13 17 16 15 17 15 13 28 None at all 5 3 5 6 4 6 4 11 9 DK/NA - - - - - - - - -



3. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Kerry 46% 8% 85% 48% 44% 49% 40% 70% 66% Bush 43 85 6 36 46 40 50 14 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 2 1 1 3 1 DK/NA 8 6 6 10 6 9 7 11 12



4. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Kerry 44% 8% 83% 44% 42% 45% 39% 64% 63% Bush 43 86 6 35 46 40 49 17 21 Nader 4 1 4 8 3 5 4 3 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 1 1 3 - DK/NA 8 4 5 10 7 9 7 14 7



5. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think will win the presidential election Bush, Kerry, or Nader?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Bush 47% 78% 24% 42% 49% 45% 52% 27% 34% Kerry 36 11 62 38 37 36 33 51 48 Nader 1 - - 2 - 1 - 2 2 DK/NA 16 11 14 19 14 18 15 20 16



6. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Favorable 40% 79% 8% 31% 41% 39% 45% 17% 20% Unfavorable 35 5 66 36 33 36 32 51 51 Mixed 22 15 23 29 24 20 22 26 21 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 2 3 1 3 1 3 6 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 2 1 2 2



7. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Favorable 31% 7% 58% 31% 32% 31% 28% 47% 46% Unfavorable 29 60 6 22 34 24 34 8 9 Mixed 26 22 23 31 24 27 26 21 25 Hvn't hrd enough 13 10 11 15 10 15 11 23 20 REFUSED 1 1 2 - - 2 1 2 -



8. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Favorable 13% 10% 15% 15% 15% 12% 14% 7% 16% Unfavorable 27 28 29 27 32 22 29 24 10 Mixed 18 17 18 20 18 17 20 10 17 Hvn't hrd enough 40 43 37 37 32 47 35 56 57 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 3 -



9. Is your opinion of Dick Cheney favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Favorable 30% 61% 7% 22% 34% 26% 34% 11% 17% Unfavorable 33 7 57 36 36 30 32 39 31 Mixed 20 21 19 20 19 21 20 22 18 Hvn't hrd enough 16 10 15 21 11 20 13 23 31 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 - 2 1 5 2



10. Is your opinion of John Edwards favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Favorable 31% 15% 51% 31% 31% 31% 32% 32% 30% Unfavorable 15 33 4 9 18 12 17 8 6 Mixed 18 19 13 23 20 17 18 14 26 Hvn't hrd enough 35 33 32 37 31 39 33 42 37 REFUSED 1 - - - 1 1 - 4 1



11. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Very satisfied 9% 21% 2% 4% 11% 8% 10% 3% 4% Smwht satisfied 37 58 17 37 40 34 41 13 28 Smwht dissatisfied 28 15 37 30 27 28 25 40 35 Very dissatisfied 25 4 44 27 22 28 22 41 33 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1



12. What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


War 25% 21% 30% 23% 19% 30% 23% 38% 26%

Economy Total: 21% 14% 24% 26% 22% 21% 19% 28% 26% Economy general 9 7 8 12 9 9 8 11 12 Unemployment/jobs 10 6 13 12 11 10 9 15 13 Businesses leaving 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 1

Terrorism Total: 15% 23% 10% 12% 20% 10% 15% 8% 14% Terrorism general 11 17 7 9 15 7 11 6 13 Security/Safety 4 6 3 3 5 3 4 2 1

Healthcare Total: 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 6% 5% 7% 2% Healthcare/Costs/ Insurance/HMO's 4 4 4 4 3 5 4 5 2 Prescription costs 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 2 -

Politicians/Campaigns Total: 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% - 4% Politicians/ Campaigns general 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1 Political corruption 1 1 - - - 1 1 - - Bush administration 2 1 4 2 2 2 2 - 3

Foreign affairs Total: 3% 2% 4% 3% 4% 2% 4% 1% 1% Foreign affairs/ policy general 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 - 1 Priorities should be at home, not abroad 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - Middle East 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 - -

Lack of ethics/Morality 2% 2% - 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% -

Abortion 1 1 - - 1 1 1 1 - Budget deficits 1 - 2 1 2 - 1 - 3 Crime/Violence general 1 1 - - 1 - 1 - - Education general 1 1 2 - 1 1 2 1 1 Environment/Pollution 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - - Family breakdown/values 1 3 - - 1 1 1 - - Immigration 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 Poverty/Homelessness 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 Social security 1 1 1 1 1 - - - -

Other 7 9 5 6 7 6 8 2 2 DK/NA 3 2 2 4 2 4 3 3 2



13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Bush 41% 80% 9% 36% 44% 38% 46% 21% 28% Kerry 49 11 83 54 48 49 44 66 63 DK/NA 10 10 8 10 7 13 10 13 9



14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Bush 49% 86% 16% 45% 55% 44% 54% 28% 37% Kerry 41 9 71 44 37 44 38 51 55 DK/NA 10 5 13 11 7 12 9 21 9



15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Bush 52% 89% 20% 48% 58% 47% 57% 30% 39% Kerry 35 6 64 38 32 38 31 51 48 DK/NA 12 5 15 15 10 14 12 19 14



16. Thinking about the upcomming presidential election, do you think George W. Bush should keep Dick Cheney on the ticket as vice president or do you think Bush should consider replacing Cheney with a different running mate?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Keep Cheney 54% 73% 44% 47% 57% 51% 57% 43% 45% Replace Cheney 31 19 37 38 32 29 28 32 44 DK/NA 16 8 19 15 11 19 14 25 10



17. Do you think having John Edwards on the ticket for vice-president will help or hurt Kerry's chances of election, or won't it make a difference?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Help 47% 36% 61% 45% 49% 45% 49% 37% 44% Hurt 8 13 4 6 9 7 8 9 5 No difference 35 41 29 36 36 34 34 40 44 DK/NA 11 10 5 13 7 14 10 14 7



30. How much have you heard or read about the announcement by some Catholic church leaders to deny communion to John Kerry because he supports abortion rights? A lot, some, only a little, or nothing at all?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


A lot 18% 21% 17% 18% 22% 15% 19% 11% 16% Some 22 23 24 22 24 21 23 17 22 Only a little 20 22 20 19 19 21 20 21 21 None at all 38 33 38 40 34 42 36 49 41 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 -



31. Do you approve or disapprove of the announcement by some Catholic church leaders that they would deny communion to John Kerry because he supports abortion rights?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Approve 25% 44% 9% 22% 26% 24% 26% 21% 20% Disapprove 61 41 82 63 60 62 61 61 73 DK/NA 14 15 9 14 14 14 13 18 7



32. Do you think it is right or wrong for Catholic church leaders to attempt to publicly pressure Catholic politicians on issues such as abortion?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Right 26% 44% 13% 24% 28% 24% 28% 22% 20% Wrong 65 47 82 66 64 65 64 67 77 DK/NA 9 9 5 10 7 10 9 12 3



33. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Legal - all cases 18% 10% 25% 18% 16% 19% 18% 17% 21% Legal - most cases 35 26 45 38 38 33 36 39 36 Illegal - most cases 27 41 17 27 27 27 29 19 23 Illegal - all cases 13 18 8 11 11 15 12 16 13 DK/NA 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 9 7



34. Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to form civil unions, giving them many of the legal rights of married couples?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Support 40% 23% 52% 44% 38% 41% 40% 26% 56% Oppose 55 74 44 49 57 52 54 65 43 DK/NA 6 3 5 7 5 7 6 9 -



35. Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to get married?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Support 31% 15% 43% 35% 30% 33% 32% 21% 49% Oppose 63 83 52 58 66 61 63 73 50 DK/NA 5 2 5 7 5 5 5 6 2



36. Would you support or oppose amending the United States Constitution to ban same sex-marriage?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Wht   Blk   His


Support 39% 54% 29% 36% 41% 37% 38% 47% 30% Oppose 55 43 64 59 54 56 56 42 66 DK/NA 6 3 7 5 4 7 5 11 4