March 6, 2003 - Unnamed Democrat Edges Bush In '04, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Most Americans Are Not Satisfied With Life Today
By a 48 - 44 percent margin, American voters say they would vote for the as yet unnamed Democratic party candidate for President over Republican incumbent George W. Bush, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Hampered by Americans' dissatisfaction with life in the U.S. and concerns about war and the economy, President Bush has a 53 - 39 percent approval rating, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Only 9 percent of American voters are "very satisfied" with the way things are going in the nation today, with 35 percent "somewhat satisfied;" 28 percent "somewhat dissatisfied," and 26 percent "very dissatisfied."

In an open-ended question allowing for any answer, 31 percent of American voters list war with Iraq as the most important problem facing the U.S. today, followed by 27 percent who list the economy/unemployment and 14 percent who list terrorism/security.

"This month, we find that an unnamed Democrat would edge out President Bush. The political winds are hard to read this early in the game, but we do know that war and a bad economy are not good for anyone - especially sitting presidents," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Voters who list the economy/unemployment as the most important problem support the Democratic candidate over Bush 61 - 32 percent.

American voters support 57 - 35 percent U.S. military action against Iraq to force President Saddam Hussein from power, with no mention of weapons of mass destruction.

By an almost identical 56 - 38 percent margin, voters say the U.S. should wait for United Nations support, rather than moving alone against Iraq,

"Yes, Americans want to take out Saddam. No, they don't want to do it alone. They'd rather take some extra time and round up some help," Carroll said.

If New York Sen. Hillary Clinton seeks the nomination for President next year, she gets the support of 37 percent of Democrats nationwide, followed by:
  • Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt with 13 percent;
  • Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman with 12 percent;
  • Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry with 8 percent;
  • North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and Florida Sen. Bob Graham with 4 percent each;
  • Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich with 3 percent each;
  • Rev. Al Sharpton with 2 percent.



Without Clinton, Lieberman gets 21 percent, followed by
  • 17 percent for Gephardt;
  • 12 percent for Kerry;
  • 8 percent for Edwards;
  • 7 percent for Moseley-Braun;
  • 6 percent for Graham;
  • 5 percent for Sharpton;
  • 4 percent for Dean;
  • 2 percent for Kucinich.
From February 26 - March 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,232 American voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. The survey includes 470 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                                                Most important problem
            Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Econ  Ter   War


Approve 53% 89% 25% 49% 57% 49% 43% 80% 48% Disapprove 39 5 69 41 36 42 49 16 43 DK/NA 8 6 6 10 7 9 8 4 9



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?

	                                          Most important problem
            Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Econ  Ter   War


Approve 42% 54% 34% 39% 43% 40% 38% 62% 43% Disapprove 46 34 53 50 49 44 53 28 43 DK/NA 12 12 13 11 8 16 9 10 14



4. Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman,Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun or Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich?
                        
                        Democrats


Lieberman 21% Kerry 12 Gephardt 17 Edwards 8 Dean 4 Sharpton 5 Graham 6 Moseley-Braun 7 Kucinich 2 DK/NA 18



5. Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004? Hillary Rodham Clinton, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun or Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich?

                        Democrats


Clinton 37% Lieberman 12 Kerry 8 Gephardt 13 Edwards 4 Dean 3 Sharpton 2 Graham 4 Moseley-Braun 3 Kucinich 3 DK/NA 11



6. If George W. Bush runs for re-election in 2004, in general are you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?

	                                                Most important problem
                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Econ  Ter   War


Bush 44% 89% 9% 39% 48% 39% 32% 72% 40% Democrat 48 6 87 46 44 51 61 23 52 OTHER(VOL) 2 1 1 5 3 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 6 4 3 10 5 7 5 5 7



7. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
	                                                Most important problem
                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Econ  Ter   War


Very satisfied 9% 18% 4% 6% 11% 7% 4% 14% 9% Smwht satisfied 35 52 20 35 37 33 25 55 37 Smwht dissatis 28 23 34 28 27 30 35 23 27 Very dissatis 26 6 42 29 23 29 35 8 24 DK/NA 1 2 - 2 1 2 2 - 2



8. What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom
Economy total		27%   21%   29%   28%   32%   21%
Economy general         22    17    23    24    26    18 
Unemployment/jobs        4     4     5     4     5     3 
Economy other            1     -     1     -     1     - 


Education total 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% Education general 1 1 1 2 1 1 Funding education 1 1 1 1 1 - Education other 1 - - - - 1

Foreign affairs/ 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% policy total Foreign affairs/general 1 2 1 1 2 1 Priorities s/b at home 1 - 1 - 1 -

Terrorism/Security 14% 18% 9% 13% 16% 12% total Terrorism general 11 13 8 11 13 9 Security/Safety 3 5 1 2 3 3

War/Iraq 31 28 36 30 23 39

Budget deficits 1 1 1 - 1 1 Taxes 1 1 - 1 2 - Poverty/Homelessness 1 - 1 1 1 1 Healthcare/Costs/ Insurance/HMO's 2 3 1 3 2 2 Medicare 1 - 1 1 - 1 Senior issues 1 - 1 - 1 - Lack of ethics/ Morality 1 3 - 1 1 1 Family breakdown/ Family values 1 1 - 1 - 1 Politicians/Campaigns 4 2 5 5 4 4 Immigration 1 1 1 1 - 1 Other 6 8 3 6 6 6 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 2 2



9. Would you favor or oppose having United States forces take military action against Iraq to force Saddam Hussein from power?

	                                              MOST IMP PROB Q8  
                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Econ  Ter   War


Favor 57% 84% 36% 53% 63% 50% 51% 81% 50% Oppose 35 10 56 37 30 41 39 14 42 DK/NA 8 6 8 9 7 9 9 5 8



10. What do you think is more important -

A) For the United States to move quickly against Iraq, even if that means acting without the support of the United Nations Security Council or B) for the United States to keep trying to win support from the United Nations Security Council, even if that means moving more slowly against Iraq?

	                                              MOST IMP PROB Q8
                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Econ  Ter   War


A) Move quickly without support 38% 63% 23% 32% 44% 34% 36% 54% 33%

B) Wait for support, move more slowly 56 34 69 61 51 60 61 43 63

DK/NA 6 3 8 7 5 7 3 3 4