December 10, 2003 - Dean Leads Dems, But Bush Bounces Back, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Few Admit They 'Hate' Bush Or Hillary Clinton
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has surged to a 9-point lead over his nearest challenger in the Democratic Presidential pack, but President George W. Bush has solidified his lead over top Democrats and now scores 50 percent or higher against any challenger, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

Among Democratic voters, Dean leads with 22 percent, followed by Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman with 13 percent and former Gen. Wesley Clark with 12 percent. Clark led the pack with 17 percent in an October 29 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, when Dean had 13 percent.

Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt gets 9 percent of Democratic voters, with Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and Rev. Al Sharpton at 8 percent each. No other candidate tops 5 percent, with 18 percent undecided.

"Gov. Dean was surging even before the Gore endorsement. He has the most commanding lead - except for Sen. Hillary Clinton - of any candidate in this see-saw Democratic pack," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"But are the Democrats competing for the right to lose to President Bush? The President gets at least 50 percent against any of the nine Democratic wannabe's and for good measure, tops Sen. Clinton, the Democratic favorite who says she's not running."

But not all the news is good for President Bush: American voters approve 51 - 43 percent of the job Bush is doing, matching his all-time low of 51 - 42 October 29.

Looking at possible 2004 presidential matchups, Bush leads Dean 51 - 40 percent, compared to 48 - 42 percent October 29. Bush's lead over other Democratic contenders has grown:
  • 51 - 40 percent over Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, compared to 48 - 43;
  • 51 - 39 percent over Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, compared to 49 - 43 percent;
  • 53 - 38 percent over Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt, compared to 49 - 43;
  • 50 - 41 percent over former Gen. Wesley Clark, compared to 47 - 43.
Bush leads New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 50 - 44 percent, compared to 50 - 42. If Clinton goes after the nomination, she gets 43 percent of the Democratic vote, the same as the October 29 Quinnipiac University poll, followed by 14 percent for Dean, 9 percent for Clark, 7 percent for Lieberman and 5 percent each for Kerry and Gephardt.

While 38 percent of voters like Bush a lot and 19 percent dislike him a lot, only 3 percent admit they hate Bush.

Looking at Sen. Clinton, 29 percent of American voters like her a lot and 23 percent dislike her a lot, but only 5 percent say they hate her.

"Political commentators describe a high level of hatred against President Bush and Sen. Clinton. If the hatred is there, very few American voters will admit it," Carroll said.

The economy is more important than Iraq in deciding how they vote next year, Americans say 62 - 26 percent.

American voters oppose same sex civil unions 53 - 40 percent and the opposition grows to 60 - 35 percent when asked if same sex couples should be allowed to marry.

From December 4 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,071 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. The survey includes 384 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service a d for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                       App     Dis     DK/NA


Dec 10, 2003 51% 43% 6% Oct 29, 2003 51 42 7 Sep 17,2003 53 39 7 Jul 24, 2003 53 41 6 Jun 11, 2003 57 35 8 Apr 16, 2003 73 22 5 Mar 6, 2003 53 39 8 Feb 4, 2003 54 39 7 Nov 13, 2002 62 30 8 Feb 22, 2002 76 16 8 Dec 11, 2001 83 11 6



TREND: Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, or Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich?

                       Democrats.........................................
                       Dec     Oct     Sep     Jul     Jun    Mar    Feb
                       2003    2003    2003    2003    2003   2003   2003
                               
Lieberman              13%     13%     14%     21%     22%    21%    27%   
Kerry                   8      10      13      13      15     12     18    
Gephardt                9      12      13      16      17     17     16    
Edwards                 5       8       7       4       5      8     14    
Dean                   22      13      14      10       5      4      3    
Sharpton                8       5       4       6       5      5      6    
Graham                 na      na       4       3       6      6     na    
Moseley-Braun           3       3       7       4       4      7     na
Kucinich                2       3       2       2       1      2     na
Clark                  12      17      na      na      na     na     na
DK/NA                  18      17      21      21      21     18     16




TREND: Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004? -- New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, or Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich?

                       Democrats.........................................
                       Dec     Oct     Sep     Jul     Jun    Mar    Feb
                       2003    2003    2003    2003    2003   2003   2003
                               
Clinton                43%     43%     45%     48%     40%    37%    42%
Lieberman               7       8       6      11      16     12     15 
Kerry                   5       7       8       7       8      8     11 
Gephardt                5       8       6       7      10     13     11 
Edwards                 3       5       4       3       2      4      7 
Dean                   14       7       9       4       3      3      3 
Sharpton                3       1       1       1       1      2      2 
Graham                 na      na       2       3       4      4     na 
Moseley-Braun           1       1       2       2       1      3     na
Kucinich                1       1       2       2       1      3     na
Clark                   9      10      na      na      na     na     na
DK/NA                  10      10      14      12      12     11      8




1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 51% 89% 20% 48% 56% 47% Disapprove 43 7 76 44 40 45 DK/NA 6 4 5 8 4 8



2. Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?

                       Dem


Lieberman 13% Kerry 8 Gephardt 9 Edwards 5 Dean 22 Sharpton 8 Moseley-Braun 3 Kucinich 2 Clark 12 DK/NA 18



3. Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004? -- New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?

                       Dem


Clinton 43% Lieberman 7 Kerry 5 Gephardt 5 Edwards 3 Dean 14 Sharpton 3 Moseley-Braun 1 Kucinich 1 Clark 9 DK/NA 10



4. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Wesley Clark the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clark 41% 5% 72% 42% 40% 42% Bush 50 92 16 49 52 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 3 2 2 1 DK/NA 6 2 8 6 5 7



5. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 44% 6% 78% 43% 39% 49% Bush 50 92 16 49 54 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 3 2 3 1 DK/NA 3 2 2 4 3 2



6. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lieberman the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Lieberman 40% 4% 73% 42% 37% 43% Bush 51 93 18 49 54 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 2 3 1 DK/NA 5 1 5 6 4 6



7. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Kerry 39% 4% 72% 40% 35% 42% Bush 51 91 17 52 56 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 4 2 3 1 DK/NA 6 4 6 4 5 6



8. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Dick Gephardt the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gephardt 38% 4% 68% 37% 36% 39% Bush 53 92 21 55 56 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 4 2 3 1 DK/NA 5 3 7 4 4 7



9. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Howard Dean the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Dean 40% 4% 70% 42% 40% 39% Bush 51 93 17 50 53 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 4 2 2 2 DK/NA 5 3 6 5 3 7



10. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Edwards 37% 4% 68% 36% 35% 39% Bush 52 93 18 53 57 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 4 2 2 2 DK/NA 6 2 9 7 4 9



11. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Al Sharpton the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Sharpton 29% 4% 53% 25% 29% 28% Bush 59 93 28 63 61 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - 3 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 - 8 3 5 3 DK/NA 6 2 7 6 3 8



12. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Carol Moseley-Braun the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Moseley-Braun 33% 4% 60% 30% 29% 35% Bush 56 93 22 59 61 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 3 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 5 4 4 3 DK/NA 6 2 10 5 3 8



13. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Dennis Kucinich the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Kucinich 32% 3% 61% 30% 29% 35% Bush 55 93 19 59 58 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 6 3 4 3 DK/NA 8 3 11 7 6 10



14. Do you think George W. Bush will be reelected President or not?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 56% 82% 37% 53% 61% 51% No 36 13 54 38 32 39 DK/NA 8 6 9 9 6 10



15. How would you describe your overall opinion of George W. Bush? Would you say you--like Bush a lot, like him a little, dislike him a little, or dislike Bush a lot? If "dislike a lot": Would you say you hate George W. Bush, or would you say you dislike Bush but do not hate him?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Like a lot 38% 77% 9% 31% 38% 37% Like a little 21 16 22 24 22 20 Dislike a little 17 4 28 20 16 18 Dislike a lot 19 1 33 20 18 20 Hate 3 - 5 3 4 2 DK/NA 3 1 3 2 3 2



16. How would you describe your overall opinion of Hillary Rodham Clinton? Would you say you--like Clinton a lot, like her a little, dislike her a little, or dislike Clinton a lot? If "dislike a lot": Would you say you hate Hillary Rodham Clinton, or would you say you dislike Clinton but do not hate her?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Like a lot 29% 5% 52% 23% 24% 33% Like a little 24 15 29 29 22 26 Dislike a little 16 21 8 21 19 14 Dislike a lot 23 46 6 20 24 22 Hate 5 10 1 3 5 4 DK/NA 3 3 3 4 5 1



17. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Very satisfied 12% 24% 4% 10% 15% 10% Smwht satisfied 33 53 16 33 36 31 Smwht dissatisfied 27 17 35 29 23 30 Very dissatisfied 26 5 45 28 25 28 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1



18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- the economy?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 46% 83% 20% 42% 51% 42% Disapprove 50 14 78 54 46 53 DK/NA 4 3 3 4 3 5



19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- education?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 47% 78% 26% 40% 49% 45% Disapprove 42 11 64 49 40 44 DK/NA 11 11 10 11 11 11



20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- health care?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 39% 67% 20% 33% 43% 36% Disapprove 53 24 76 60 52 55 DK/NA 7 8 4 7 5 9



21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- taxes?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 50% 84% 25% 44% 55% 45% Disapprove 45 11 70 52 42 47 DK/NA 6 5 6 4 3 8



22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- foreign policy?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 45% 79% 18% 43% 49% 41% Disapprove 48 14 75 53 44 52 DK/NA 7 7 7 4 6 7



23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- terrorism?
                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 59% 87% 36% 58% 64% 54% Disapprove 36 9 58 38 31 41 DK/NA 5 4 5 4 5 5



24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- the situation with Iraq?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 46% 81% 18% 44% 52% 42% Disapprove 48 15 77 50 42 53 DK/NA 6 4 5 6 6 5



25. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Excellent 3% 6% 2% 2% 6% 1% Good 37 63 16 36 43 33 Not so good 42 27 53 47 38 46 Poor 16 4 27 14 13 18 DK/NA 1 1 2 - 1 2



26. During the next 12 months, do you think the economic conditions in the United States will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Get better 48% 69% 30% 49% 56% 40% Get worse 14 5 19 15 12 15 Stay about the same 36 25 49 34 31 41 DK/NA 2 1 3 2 1 4



27. Would you say that you are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Better off 43% 64% 29% 39% 47% 39% Worse off 36 19 49 40 33 39 SAME(VOL) 20 15 21 20 20 20 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 - 2



28. Which issue will matter more in deciding how you vote for President next year -- Iraq or the economy?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Iraq 26% 27% 28% 23% 24% 28% Economy 62 56 65 65 65 59 DK/NA 12 17 7 12 12 13



29. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Right thing 54% 85% 31% 49% 58% 51% Wrong thing 40 11 64 44 36 44 DK/NA 6 4 5 7 6 5



30. Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to form civil unions, giving them many of the legal rights of married couples?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Support 40% 24% 48% 48% 37% 43% Oppose 53 69 44 45 56 49 DK/NA 7 7 8 6 7 7



31. Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to get married?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Support 35% 20% 43% 40% 30% 39% Oppose 60 77 51 54 64 56 DK/NA 5 3 6 6 6 5