October 29, 2003 - Clark Leads Pack As Dems Close In On Bush, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Bush Gets Negative Marks For Economy And Iraq
Led by former Gen. Wesley Clark, the pack of Democratic presidential contenders is catching up with President George W. Bush, whose job approval has slipped, down to 51 - 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

This is a new low for President Bush, who had a 53 - 39 percent approval in a September 17 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Looking at possible 2004 presidential matchups, Bush leads Clark 47 - 43 percent. Bush leads other Democratic contenders, but his margins have slipped since September 17:
  • 48 - 43 percent over Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, compared to 52 - 41;
  • 49 - 43 percent over Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, compared to 53 - 38 percent;
  • 49 - 43 percent over Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt, compared to 51 - 39;
  • 48 - 42 percent over former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, compared to 53 - 38;
  • 50 - 42 percent over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, compared to 52 - 42.
"President Bush is ahead, but he's hearing footsteps. The loudest come from Gen. Wesley Clark's combat boots as he and the other Democratic wanna-bes close in," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Who's telling the truth on Iraq? The White House and the news media out-point the Democratic candidates. But there's a lot of skepticism out there."

A total of 56 percent of American voters trust the White House "a lot" or "some" for information on Iraq; 43 percent trust the administration "only a little" or "not at all."

Looking at the Democratic candidates, 52 percent trust them "a lot" or "some," while 42 percent trust them "only a little" or "not at all."

A total of 58 percent of American voters trust newspapers "a lot" or "some" for information on Iraq, while 40 percent trust newspapers "only a little" or "some.'

Television news is ranked most reliable, with 63 percent of voters trusting TV "a lot" or "some" and 35 percent trusting "only a little" or "some."

Clark, the newcomer, has jumped right to the head of the pack, with 17 percent of Democratic voters. Lieberman and Dean are tied at 13 percent each, with Gephardt at 12 percent and Kerry at 10 percent. Undecided ties Clark with 17 percent.

If Clinton decides to run, she gets 43 percent, followed by 10 percent for Clark, 8 percent each for Lieberman and Gephardt and 7 percent each for Kerry and Dean.

"Clark leads the top tier of Democratic candidates, just inching ahead of Lieberman, Dean and Gephardt. But none of them have lit any real fires - at least not as hot as Sen. Clinton, who keeps trying to put the fire out," Carroll said.

President Bush gets a 39 - 55 percent approval for handling the economy. Approval ratings for Bush's handling of other issues show:
  • 44 - 48 percent for foreign policy;
  • 51 - 46 percent for terrorism overseas;
  • 63 - 31 percent for terrorism at home;
  • 45 - 50 percent for Iraq.
By a 69 - 20 percent margin, American voters say the economy is more important than Iraq in deciding how they vote for President next year. And by a 54 - 36 percent margin, voters say a Democratic administration would do a better job on the economy.

From October 23 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,262 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. The survey includes 403 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                       App     Dis     DK/NA
                         
Oct 29, 2003           51%     42%      7%
Sep 17,2003            53      39       7
Jul 24, 2003           53      41       6 
Jun 11, 2003           57      35       8 
Apr 16, 2003           73      22       5
Mar 6, 2003            53      39       8
Feb 4, 2003            54      39       7
Nov 13, 2002           62      30       8
Feb 22, 2002           76      16       8
Dec 11, 2001           83      11       6




TREND: Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Wesley Clark the Deomcrat, and George W. Bush the Republican,
for whom would you vote?            


WC GWB SmnEls Wld'tVt DK/NA

Oct 29, 2003 43% 47% 1% 2% 7%



TREND: Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Deomcrat, and George W. Bush
the Republican, for whom would you vote?            


HC GWB SmnEls Wld'tVt DK/NA

Oct 29, 2003 42% 50% 2% 3% 4% Sep 17, 2003 42 52 1 2 3 Jul 24, 2003 43 50 1 2 3 Jun 11, 2003 40 53 1 2 4 Feb 6, 2003 41 52 2 2 3



TREND: Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lieberman the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                       JL      GWB     SmnEls  Wld'tVt DK/NA 


Oct 29, 2003 43% 48% 2% 2% 5% Sep 17, 2003 41 52 1 2 4 Jul 24, 2003 41 51 1 1 5 Jun 11, 2003 40 53 1 1 4 Feb 6, 2003 43 49 2 1 5 Nov 13, 2002 37 54 2 1 6



TREND: Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                       JK      GWB     SmnEls  Wld'tVt DK/NA 


Oct 29, 2003 43% 49% 1% 1% 5% Sep 17, 2003 38 53 2 2 6 Jul 24, 2003 40 51 1 1 7 Jun 11, 2003 37 53 2 1 6 Feb 6, 2003 42 50 1 1 7



TREND: Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Dick Gephardt the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                       DG      GWB     SmnEls  Wld'tVt DK/NA 


Oct 29, 2003 43% 49% 2% 2% 5% Sep 17, 2003 39 51 2 2 6 Jul 24, 2003 42 51 1 1 5 Jun 11, 2003 38 54 2 1 5 Feb 6, 2003 42 51 2 1 5



TREND: Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Howard Dean the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                       HD      GWB     SmnEls  Wld'tVt DK/NA 


Oct 29, 2003 42% 48% 2% 2% 6% Sep 17, 2003 38 53 1 2 7 Jul 24, 2003 37 53 2 1 6 Feb 6, 2003 36 53 2 2 7



1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 51% 87% 23% 49% 54% 49% Disapprove 42 9 71 42 40 44 DK/NA 7 4 6 9 7 8



2. Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?

                       Dem


Lieberman 13% Kerry 10 Gephardt 12 Edwards 8 Dean 13 Sharpton 5 Moseley-Braun 3 Kucinich 3 Clark 17 DK/NA 17



3. Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004? -- New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?

                       Dem


Clinton 43% Lieberman 8 Kerry 7 Gephardt 8 Edwards 5 Dean 7 Sharpton 1 Moseley-Braun 1 Kucinich 1 Clark 10 DK/NA 10



4. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Wesley Clark the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clark 43% 7% 81% 39% 44% 42% Bush 47 88 14 46 49 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 7 4 3 11 4 9



5. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 42% 8% 77% 36% 39% 44% Bush 50 89 17 51 54 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 4 2 4 DK/NA 4 2 2 6 3 4



6. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lieberman the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Lieberman 43% 6% 79% 39% 40% 46% Bush 48 90 13 48 52 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 2 DK/NA 5 2 4 7 4 6



7. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Kerry 43% 6% 79% 39% 42% 44% Bush 49 91 17 48 52 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 5 2 1 10 3 7



8. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Dick Gephardt the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gephardt 43% 9% 78% 36% 40% 45% Bush 49 89 16 50 53 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 4 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 5 1 4 8 4 6



9. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Howard Dean the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Dean 42% 8% 77% 39% 42% 43% Bush 48 88 18 47 50 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 6 3 2 11 5 7



10. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Very satisfied 10% 22% 2% 7% 12% 8% Smwht satisfied 38 58 22 36 39 37 Smwht dissatisfied 25 12 35 27 23 28 Very dissatisfied 26 6 40 29 25 27 DK/NA 1 2 1 - 1 -



11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- the economy?
                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 39% 75% 12% 36% 42% 36% Disapprove 55 19 83 56 55 55 DK/NA 6 5 5 8 3 9



12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- issues affecting senior citizens?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 34% 61% 11% 35% 37% 32% Disapprove 46 20 71 43 42 49 DK/NA 20 19 17 22 20 19



13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- foreign policy?
                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 44% 78% 19% 43% 48% 41% Disapprove 48 16 77 48 45 51 DK/NA 7 7 4 9 7 8



14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- the war against terrorism overseas?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 51% 83% 26% 50% 56% 46% Disapprove 46 14 71 47 41 49 DK/NA 4 3 3 4 3 5



15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- policies to prevent and minimize terrorism at home?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 63% 84% 48% 61% 65% 61% Disapprove 31 11 43 35 30 32 DK/NA 6 5 9 4 5 8



16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- the situation with Iraq?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 45% 78% 19% 44% 50% 41% Disapprove 50 17 78 51 47 53 DK/NA 5 4 3 5 3 6



16b. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- the situation between Israel and the Palestinians?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 37% 63% 21% 32% 41% 33% Disapprove 43 21 61 47 44 42 DK/NA 20 17 18 22 16 25



17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Dick Cheney is handling his job as vice-president?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 48% 75% 30% 43% 50% 46% Disapprove 35 12 54 36 37 33 DK/NA 17 13 16 21 13 21



18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Rumsfeld is handling his job as secretary of defense?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 54% 81% 35% 51% 59% 50% Disapprove 35 10 52 40 35 35 DK/NA 11 9 13 9 6 15



19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Colin Powell is handling his job as secretary of state?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 76% 93% 64% 76% 78% 74% Disapprove 16 3 28 16 17 16 DK/NA 8 4 8 8 5 10



20. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Excellent 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% 1% Good 29 51 9 30 33 24 Not so good 45 39 50 46 42 48 Poor 23 7 38 22 21 26 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1



21. During the next 12 months, do you think the economic conditions in the United States will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Get better 40% 64% 24% 36% 47% 33% Get worse 19 8 30 17 17 21 Stay about the same 38 25 45 43 34 42 DK/NA 3 3 1 4 1 4



22. Which issue will matter more in deciding how you vote for President next year -- Iraq or the economy?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Iraq 20% 26% 19% 19% 19% 22% Economy 69 61 74 70 71 67 DK/NA 11 13 7 12 10 12



23. Who do you think would do a better job on the economy - the current Bush administration or a new Democratic administration?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bush administration 36% 77% 5% 35% 40% 32% Dem administration 54 13 91 53 52 55 DK/NA 10 10 5 13 7 13



24. Who do you think would do a better job on Iraq - the current Bush administration or a new Democratic administration?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bush administration 46% 87% 15% 44% 53% 40% Dem administration 42 10 76 39 39 46 DK/NA 11 4 9 17 8 14



25. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Right thing 53% 82% 27% 55% 57% 49% Wrong thing 42 14 68 39 40 43 DK/NA 6 5 5 5 3 8



26. Do you support or oppose the Bush administration's proposal for an additional 87 billion dollars mainly for the military operations and rebuilding in Iraq?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Support 38% 63% 19% 39% 44% 34% Oppose 56 32 77 56 52 60 DK/NA 5 5 4 5 4 6



27. (Please tell me how much you trust each of the following for accurate information about the situation in Iraq: Do you trust each one a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?...)

Do you trust the White House -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all for accurate information about the situation in Iraq?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


A lot 19% 40% 5% 15% 22% 16% Some 37 43 32 39 35 40 Only a little 24 9 31 27 23 24 Not at all 19 6 31 18 20 18 DK/NA 1 2 - 1 1 2



28. (Please tell me how much you trust each of the following for accurate information about the situation in Iraq:)

Do you trust the Democratic candidates for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all for accurate information about the situation in Iraq?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


A lot 10% 3% 22% 4% 10% 11% Some 42 28 55 43 40 45 Only a little 25 27 15 32 25 24 Not at all 17 36 5 15 21 14 DK/NA 6 6 4 6 5 6



29. (Please tell me how much you trust each of the following for accurate information about the situation in Iraq:)

Do you trust newspapers -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all for accurate information about the situation in Iraq?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


A lot 12% 6% 15% 14% 12% 11% Some 46 42 51 45 40 50 Only a little 29 35 25 29 32 27 Not at all 11 15 7 11 14 9 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 1 3



30. (Please tell me how much you trust each of the following for accurate information about the situation in Iraq:)

Do you trust television news -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at for accurate information about the situation in Iraq?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


A lot 15% 8% 21% 15% 13% 16% Some 48 47 46 51 47 48 Only a little 26 33 22 24 27 25 Not at all 9 9 8 9 11 7 DK/NA 2 3 3 1 2 3



31. Do you think that your state should or should not have a recall provision, where people can vote to remove an elected official from office, such as has happened in California?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom 
                                                              
Yes/Should             58%     60%     55%     61%     56%     60% 
No/Shold not           36      34      39      34      41      31  
DK/NA                   6       5       6       5       3       9  




32. If you had the chance, would you vote to recall your governor or not?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
                                                               
Yes                    22%     19%     26%     22%     21%     24%
No                     74      80      71      74      77      72 
DK/NA                   3       2       3       4       2       4 




33. If you had the chance, would you vote for Arnold Schwarzenegger to be governor of your state or not?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
                                                             
Yes                    23%     32%     17%     21%     27%     19%
No                     67      53      77      68      64      69 
DK/NA                  10      14       6      10       9      12