March 10, 2005 - Clinton In Tight '08 Race With Giuliani Or McCain, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; No 'Common Ground' On Abortion, Most Americans Say
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton would run a very close race for President in 2008 against either former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani or Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

Looking at the 2008 race, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds:
  • Mayor Giuliani gets 44 percent to 43 percent for Sen. Clinton, a statistical tie;
  • Sen. McCain has 43 percent to Clinton's 41 percent, also too close to call.
American voters like Giuliani the most, giving him a 48 - 12 percent favorability rating, with 17 percent mixed and 21 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. McCain has a 35 - 8 percent favorability, with 22 percent mixed and 33 percent who haven't heard enough. Clinton has a 34 - 29 percent favorability, with 19 percent mixed and 17 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

"It's still three years until New Hampshire and very speculative, but Hillary Clinton is showing she could go 15 rounds against either of two Republican heavyweights, Rudolph Giuliani or John McCain," said Maurice Carroll, Director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. Clinton gets 48 percent of the women's vote against either Republican. But McCain and Giuliani do just as well with men voters."

Most American voters are in middle positions on abortion:
  • 19 percent say abortion should be legal in all cases;
  • 35 percent say it should be legal in most cases;
  • 24 percent say abortion should be illegal in most cases;
  • 15 percent say it should be illegal in all cases.
On other abortion questions:
  • Voters support 66 - 24 percent a 24-hour waiting period for a woman seeking an abortion;
  • Voters favor 75 - 18 percent parental notification before a minor can get an abortion;
  • Voters say 75 - 13 percent that so-called "partial birth abortion" should be illegal except when necessary to save the life of the mother.
It is not possible for advocates on both sides of the abortion issue to find common ground, American voters say 53 - 39 percent.

"Overall views on abortion tend toward the middle, with 59 percent of American voters saying abortion should be legal in most cases or illegal in most cases. The right- to-life and abortion-on-demand believers at opposite ends of the spectrum poll only in the teens," Carroll said.

"Still, most American voters doubt that we can find common ground on this issue."

President George W. Bush has a slightly negative 45 - 48 percent overall approval rating, dragged down by a big negative 28 - 59 percent for his handling of the Social Security issue.

American voters say 51 - 42 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.

From March 2 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,534 registered voters nationwide. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

TREND: If the 2008 election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                        SMONE   WLDN'T
                        HC      RG      ELSE    VOTE    DK/NA


Mar 10, 2005 43 44 2 1 10 Feb 2, 2005 43 45 2 2 7 Dec 16, 2004 43 45 3 2 6



TREND: In general how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                        Very    Smwht   Smwht   Very
                        sat     sat     dis     dis     DK/NA
                     
Mar 10, 2005             8      37      28      26       1
Feb 2, 2005             10      37      25      27       1
Dec 16, 2004             8      35      27      29       1
Jul 24, 2004             9      37      28      25       1
May 26, 2004             8      33      24      34       1
May 5, 2004             10      34      29      26       1
Mar 24, 2004            12      36      27      24       1
Feb 2, 2004             14      35      26      24       1
Jan 26, 2004            15      36      25      23       1
Dec 10, 2003            12      33      27      26       1
Oct 29, 2003            10      38      25      26       1
Sep 17, 2003            12      38      22      28       1
Jul 24, 2003            13      34      27      24       2
Jun 11, 2003            17      38      22      22       1
Apr 17, 2003            19      46      20      14       1
Mar 6, 2003              9      35      28      26       1
Feb 4, 2003             11      36      27      25       1
Nov 13, 2002            12      43      27      17       1
Feb 22, 2002            15      52      21      11       1
Dec 11, 2001            21      47      19      10       3




TREND: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases? (* All adults)

                       Legal    Legal    Illegal    Illegal
                       All      Most     Most       All       DK/NA


Mar 10, 2005 19 35 24 15 6 Dec 15, 2004 16 41 26 13 5 Jul 24, 2004 18 35 27 13 6 May 27, 2004 20 35 26 14 6 Jun 12, 2003* 21 33 24 17 6 Mar 5, 2003* 22 32 24 18 4



TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Right   Wrong   DK/NA
                        
Mar 10, 2005            42      51       6
Feb 2, 2005             44      50       6
Dec 16, 2004            42      52       6
May 26, 2004            50      44       6
May 5, 2004             48      45       7
Mar 24, 2004            54      39       7
Feb 2, 2004             52      42       6
Jan 26, 2004            52      40       7
Dec 10, 2003            54      40       6
Oct 29, 2003            53      42       6
Sep 17, 2003            58      37       5




2. Is your opinion of New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 34% 8% 58% 31% 29% 38% Unfavorable 29 64 7 25 37 23 Mixed 19 16 16 24 20 18 Hvn't hrd enough 17 12 19 19 14 19 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1



3. Is your opinion of former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 48% 69% 35% 44% 51% 46% Unfavorable 12 4 16 14 14 10 Mixed 17 11 22 19 17 17 Hvn't hrd enough 21 15 26 22 17 25 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1



4. Is your opinion of Arizona Senator John McCain favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 35% 37% 31% 40% 41% 30% Unfavorable 8 8 8 9 10 6 Mixed 22 26 20 19 23 21 Hvn't hrd enough 33 26 38 31 25 40 REFUSED 2 3 2 - 1 2



5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 43% 6% 76% 41% 37% 48% Giuliani 44 84 13 44 49 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 10 7 9 12 9 12



6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 41% 7% 73% 34% 34% 48% McCain 43 79 15 44 50 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 13 10 11 18 11 14



7. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Very satisfied 8% 20% 2% 5% 11% 6% Smwht satisfied 37 61 18 34 39 34 Smwht dissatisfied 28 12 36 34 24 31 Very dissatisfied 26 5 42 27 24 28 DK/NA 1 2 1 - 2 -



8. Do you think of Hillary Rodham Clinton more as a liberal, moderate or conservative?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Liberal 48% 75% 34% 41% 53% 43% Moderate 29 11 40 32 28 29 Conservative 10 4 14 11 7 13 DK/NA 13 10 12 16 11 15



9. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Legal all cases 19% 10% 26% 20% 16% 22% Legal most cases 35 26 40 38 35 35 Illegal most cases 24 37 17 22 28 21 Illegal all cases 15 23 11 14 14 16 DK/NA 6 4 6 5 7 4



10. Do you favor or oppose a 24-hour waiting period for women seeking an abortion before the abortion could take place?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favor 66% 79% 59% 64% 66% 65% Oppose 24 13 29 26 24 24 DK/NA 10 8 12 10 10 10



11. Do you favor or oppose requiring parental notification before a minor could get an abortion?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favor 75% 87% 70% 70% 77% 73% Oppose 18 8 23 20 17 19 DK/NA 7 4 7 10 7 8



12. Do you think that a specific abortion procedure known as partial birth abortion should be legal or should it be illegal except when necessary to save the life of the mother?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Legal 13% 5% 18% 15% 15% 12% Illegal except.. 75 85 69 72 73 76 DK/NA 12 10 13 13 12 12



13. Recently Hillary Rodham Clinton gave a speech to abortion rights supporters in Albany, New York. How much have you heard or read about this speech? A lot, some, only a little, or nothing at all?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


A lot 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 2% Some 8 11 7 8 6 10 Only a little 16 15 18 15 18 15 Nothing at all 73 70 74 74 72 73 DK/NA - - - - - -



14. (If heard about speech Q13)Does Hillary Rodham Clinton's speech on abortion make you more likely to vote for her for President, less likely to vote for her for President, or doesn't it make a difference?

                        HEARD ABOUT SPEECH Q13.....................
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


More likely 12% 2% 20% 13% 10% 13% Less likely 19 33 7 17 23 16 No difference 65 62 69 65 64 66 DK/NA 4 3 3 5 3 5



15. Do you think it is possible that advocates on both sides of the abortion issue will be able to find some common ground or not?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
                        
Yes                     39%     37%     40%     38%     41%     37%
No                      53      56      51      55      53      54
DK/NA                    8       7       8       7       6       9




25. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
                        
Right thing             42%     80%     16%     37%     48%     37%
Wrong thing             51      15      78      56      46      56
DK/NA                    6       5       6       7       5       7