January 25, 2007 - New Jersey Voters Don't Adore The Senator Next Door, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Clinton Trails Giuliani, Ties McCain In Garden State
In an early look at the 2008 presidential race in New Jersey, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 48 - 41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Arizona Sen. John McCain gets 44 percent to Sen. Clinton's 43 percent, a tie.

New Jersey's independent voters back Giuliani 47 - 37 percent over Clinton; Giuliani also gets 86 percent of Republicans and 19 percent of Democrats, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. In a McCain-Clinton matchup, independents back the Republican 48 - 36 percent; McCain also gets 86 percent of Republicans and 12 percent of Democrats.

With 30 percent, Clinton leads a Democratic primary matchup, with 16 percent for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 11 percent for former Vice President Al Gore and 8 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards; no other Democrat tops 6 percent.

Among Republicans, Giuliani leads with 39 percent, followed by McCain with 21 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 11 percent; no other contender tops 5 percent.

"It looks like problems with Sen. Hillary Clinton's new presidential campaign are cropping up close to home," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"She has established her front-runner status among Democrats and she enjoys positive favorability ratings, but a big chunk of New Jersey voters have negative feelings about the Senator next door - enough to show two Republicans giving her a run for her money in this traditionally Democratic state," Richards added.

"It's easy to explain why she trails 9/11 hero Rudolph Giuliani; less clear why Sen. John McCain from faraway Arizona is so close. Looking more deeply into the numbers, Sen. Clinton is losing Democratic voters to GOP rivals and she trails among the state's large bloc of independent voters. While it's very early, one has to wonder how Sen. Clinton will play in the rest of the country when she has these numbers right next door."

New Jersey voters give Clinton a 53 - 38 percent favorability rating.

Giuliani gets a 63 - 24 percent favorability rating.

McCain gets a 52 - 24 percent score.

Sen. Obama gets 41 - 9 percent favorability rating, with 49 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

President Bush's Approval

New Jersey voters disapprove 69 - 26 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, tying his lowest score ever in the Garden State. By a 71 - 22 percent margin, voters say the country is on the wrong track.

Voters disapprove 72 - 23 percent of the President's handling of the war in Iraq and say 63 - 30 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.

Voters oppose 69 - 26 percent the President's plan to send 22,000 more U.S. military forces into Iraq.

From January 16 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,310 New Jersey voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 408 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points, and 461 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and click on Institutes and Centers, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore, John Kerry, Joe Biden, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Chris Dodd, Wesley Clark, Tom Vilsack and Dennis Kucinich for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                        Tot     Men     Wom
                                
Gore                    11%     16%      6%
Kerry                    6       8       5
Biden                    6      10       2
Edwards                  8      10       7
Richardson               1       3       -
Clinton                 30      21      37
Obama                   16      13      18
Dodd                     -       1       -
Clark                    2       1       2
Vilsack                  -       -       -
Kucinich                 -       1       -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       1       2
DK/NA                   17      15      19




2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Duncan Hunter, Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson, Jim Gilmore, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee and George Pataki for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                        Tot     Men     Wom


Giuliani 39% 35% 43% McCain 21 22 21 Romney 5 6 3 Gingrich 11 17 5 Hunter 1 1 1 Brownback 1 - 1 Thompson - - - Gilmore 1 1 1 Hagel 1 - 1 Huckabee 1 2 - Pataki 3 3 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 DK/NA 13 9 17



3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 41% 5% 75% 37% 36% 46% Giuliani 48 86 19 47 52 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 3 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 - 1 2 1 DK/NA 8 6 5 12 7 9

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Clinton 62% 44% 27% 47% 27% Giuliani 28 46 61 40 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 3 - 3 DK/NA 8 7 8 11 9



4. If... the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 53% 13% 87% 51% 47% 58% Romney 29 68 5 25 36 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 3 4 2 DK/NA 13 15 5 17 11 15

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Clinton 75% 56% 36% 55% 43% Romney 14 27 41 29 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 6 2 3 DK/NA 7 13 15 11 17



5. If... the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 43% 5% 80% 36% 37% 49% McCain 44 86 12 48 51 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 3 1 DK/NA 10 7 6 13 8 12

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Clinton 63% 46% 30% 47% 31% McCain 22 42 57 42 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 4 2 2 DK/NA 13 10 9 8 11



6. If... the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Obama 39% 10% 70% 32% 35% 43% McCain 42 79 14 47 48 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 3 1 DK/NA 15 9 14 18 12 18

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Obama 55% 40% 32% 39% 31% McCain 29 43 44 42 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 4 3 1 DK/NA 14 14 18 15 15



7. If...the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Edwards 39% 6% 73% 30% 37% 41% McCain 45 84 15 49 52 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 3 2 DK/NA 12 7 8 17 7 17

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Edwards 55% 43% 29% 37% 29% McCain 32 40 57 45 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 3 4 5 DK/NA 10 14 11 13 13



8. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 53% 14% 88% 52% 47% 60% Unfavorable 38 78 10 37 45 32 Hvn't hrd enough 6 6 2 8 7 6 REFUSED 2 2 - 3 2 2

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Favorable 68% 55% 42% 58% 43% Unfavorable 24 38 49 32 49 Hvn't hrd enough 7 5 7 10 4 REFUSED 1 2 2 - 4



9. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 41% 23% 57% 39% 38% 44% Unfavorable 9 18 3 9 12 7 Hvn't hrd enough 49 58 40 51 49 49 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 1

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Favorable 51% 38% 43% 46% 31% Unfavorable 4 8 11 10 15 Hvn't hrd enough 44 53 45 44 53 REFUSED - 1 1 - 1



10. Is your opinion of John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 52% 72% 32% 60% 55% 49% Unfavorable 24 13 36 19 29 20 Hvn't hrd enough 21 14 30 17 13 29 REFUSED 2 1 2 4 2 2

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Favorable 43% 51% 63% 46% 61% Unfavorable 20 24 23 33 18 Hvn't hrd enough 32 22 13 19 19 REFUSED 5 2 1 2 2



11. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 63% 84% 44% 64% 62% 64% Unfavorable 24 8 40 22 29 20 Hvn't hrd enough 12 8 16 13 8 15 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Favorable 53% 61% 79% 51% 74% Unfavorable 32 28 14 27 16 Hvn't hrd enough 13 10 7 22 8 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 2



12. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 11% 21% 5% 11% 16% 6% Unfavorable 12 4 21 7 16 7 Hvn't hrd enough 76 75 74 81 66 86 REFUSED 1 - - 2 1 1

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Favorable 12% 12% 15% 6% 11% Unfavorable 15 9 17 15 5 Hvn't hrd enough 72 78 67 77 83 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1



13. Is your opinion of John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 44% 30% 58% 41% 41% 47% Unfavorable 23 40 8 27 30 17 Hvn't hrd enough 30 28 33 28 27 33 REFUSED 2 2 1 4 1 3

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Favorable 42% 41% 50% 49% 42% Unfavorable 16 23 27 23 27 Hvn't hrd enough 41 31 22 26 30 REFUSED 1 4 - 2 1



16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 44% 28% 58% 45% 49% 39% Disapprove 32 56 15 31 33 31 DK/NA 24 16 28 24 18 31

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 49% 45% 44% 37% 44% Disapprove 24 32 35 33 34 DK/NA 26 23 20 31 22

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? * - also hit 55% on 9/23/1999 & 7/22/1999

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Jan 25  Dec 7   Jun 15  Apr 27  Mar 20  Jul 27  Jun 18
                        2007    2006    2006    2006    2006    2000 *  2003


Approve 44 44 44 43 47 55 41 Disapprove 32 33 34 32 30 22 34 DK/NA 24 23 21 25 23 23 25



17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 36% 17% 57% 33% 39% 34% Disapprove 33 61 11 35 34 32 DK/NA 31 23 32 32 27 33

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 47% 38% 29% 36% 32% Disapprove 18 36 43 27 37 DK/NA 35 26 28 36 31

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? * also hit 39% on 3/20/06

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Jan 25  Dec 7   Sep 20  Jul 17  Jun 15  Dec 7   Jul 17
                        2007    2006    2006    2006    2006    2006 *  2006


Approve 36 39 34 31 37 39 31 Disapprove 33 37 31 30 29 37 30 DK/NA 31 24 35 39 34 24 39



18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 26% 60% 7% 23% 27% 26% Disapprove 69 35 89 72 69 68 DK/NA 5 5 4 5 4 6

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 13% 26% 36% 23% 33% Disapprove 83 71 58 71 59 DK/NA 5 3 6 7 8

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? * also hit 26% 4/27/06 & 12/7/2006

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Jan 25  Dec 7   Sep 20  Jul 17  Jun 15  Oct 18  Jan 25
                        2007    2006    2006    2006    2006    2001    2007 *


Approve 26 26 33 34 28 90 26 Disapprove 69 70 64 61 69 7 69 DK/NA 5 4 4 5 3 3 5



19. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Right direction 22% 42% 9% 21% 24% 20% Wrong track 71 51 88 71 71 72 DK/NA 7 7 3 8 5 9

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Right direction 16% 21% 30% 19% 24% Wrong track 78 70 62 76 72 DK/NA 6 9 8 5 5



20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 23% 51% 6% 19% 25% 20% Disapprove 72 43 92 76 72 72 DK/NA 5 6 3 5 3 7

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 10% 23% 33% 20% 25% Disapprove 84 74 62 72 69 DK/NA 6 3 6 8 5

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?

                        Jan 25  Dec 7   Sep 20  Jun 15  Apr 27  Mar 20  Jan 25
                        2007    2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2006


Approve 23 22 30 28 25 27 34 Disapprove 72 75 66 68 71 69 62 DK/NA 5 3 4 3 5 4 4



21. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Right thing 30% 61% 10% 28% 35% 26% Wrong thing 63 29 84 66 60 64 DK/NA 7 9 6 5 5 9

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Right thing 18% 27% 42% 30% 36% Wrong thing 74 68 52 59 55 DK/NA 8 5 6 10 9

TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Jan 25  Dec 7   Sep 20  Jun 15  Apr 27  Mar 20  Oct 19
                        2007    2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2004


Right thing 30 32 36 33 31 33 44 Wrong thing 63 64 59 62 63 62 51 DK/NA 7 4 5 5 6 6 5



22. Do you support or oppose Bush's proposal to send approximately 22,000 additional U.S. military forces to Iraq?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Support 26% 53% 9% 25% 33% 20% Oppose 69 43 88 68 61 75 DK/NA 5 5 3 7 5 5

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Support 11% 25% 38% 24% 33% Oppose 82 71 57 69 64 DK/NA 7 4 5 7 3