October 17, 2007 - Giuliani, Clinton Set To Win Big Delegate Blocs, Sweeping Tri-State Primaries, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds --- NEW YORK: Clinton 49 - Obama 12; Giuliani 45 - Thompson 12; NEW JERSEY: Clinton 46 - Obama 20; Giuliani 48 - Thompson 12; CONNECTICUT: Clinton 43 - Obama 16; Giuliani 42 - McCain 14

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Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, the Republican front-runner, could pick up 15 percent of the delegates needed to win the nomination because of his overwhelming Republican leads in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, which all hold primaries February 5, according to today's Quinnipiac University Tri-State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voters in the three states.

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who also holds commanding leads in the three states, also will reap a big delegate count, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Expected delegate counts for these states that vote on February 5 are:
  • New York - 280 Democratic delegates and 101 Republican delegates;
  • New Jersey - 127 Democratic delegates and 52 Republican delegates;
  • Connecticut - 61 Democratic delegates and 30 Republican delegates.
With the Republican Party's winner-take-all rules, Giuliani stands to win all 183 delegates in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, 15 percent of the 1,228 delegates needed for nomination.

Democratic Party rules provide for proportional allocation of primary votes, meaning Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and other contenders could win some delegates. But surveys show Sen. Clinton will win more than half of the delegates at stake, or more than 250 of the 2,181 delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination.

"In Albany, Trenton and Hartford, the Republican refrain is 'Rah for Rudy.' While 17 other states hold primaries on this February 5 Super Tuesday, Sen. Hillary Clinton and Mayor Giuliani can count on their Northeast neighbors to give them an early bumper crop of delegates," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

In a New York Democratic primary, Clinton leads Obama 49 - 12 percent, with 11 percent for Edwards.

Among Republicans, Giuliani tops former Tennessee Sen. Fred. Thompson 45 - 12 percent, with 9 percent for Arizona Sen. John McCain and 7 percent for Mitt Romney.

In a head-to-head matchup, Clinton tops Giuliani 50 - 36 percent.

"This early presidential primary is an obvious windfall for two New York favorites, Sen. Clinton and Mayor Giuliani. But in the presidential showdown, New York is blue, blue, blue, giving Clinton a double-digit lead over Giuliani," Carroll said.

New Jersey

Among New Jersey Democrats, Clinton tops Obama 46 - 20 percent, with 9 percent for Edwards.

In the Republican primary, Giuliani bests Thompson 48 - 12 percent, with 12 percent for McCain and 7 percent for Romney.

The presidential race is a dead heat with Clinton and Giuliani tied at 44 - 44 percent.

"The Mayor next door and the Senator next door dominate the New Jersey primary scene. And in a general election, Giuliani's stature as a 9/11 hero could turn this traditionally blue state into a battleground that could go down to the wire," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Connecticut

Clinton dominates a Connecticut Democratic primary with 43 percent, followed by Obama with 16 percent and Edwards with 8 percent. Sen. Christopher Dodd gets 7 percent.

Giuliani rules the Republican race with 42 percent, trailed by McCain with 14 percent, Thompson with 10 percent and Romney with 9 percent.

In the presidential face-off, Clinton gets 44 percent to Giuliani's 42 percent.

"Connecticut voters favor their favorite neighbors, Sen. Clinton and Mayor Giuliani, over their favorite son, Sen. Dodd," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

From October 9 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,063 New York voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent, including 316 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.5 percent, and 468 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent;
  • 1,004 New Jersey voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent, including 301 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percent, and 343 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percent;
  • 1,391 Connecticut voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent, including 325 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percent and 530 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat)If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                        CT      NJ      NY


Biden 3% 2% 2% Clinton 43 46 49 Dodd 7 1 1 Edwards 8 9 11 Gravel - - - Kucinich 1 2 2 Obama 16 20 12 Richardson 2 3 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 3 DK/NA 17 14 16



2. (If registered Republican)If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo and Fred Thompson for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                        CT      NJ      NY


Brownback - 1% - Giuliani 42 48 45 Huckabee 2 1 1 Hunter - - - McCain 14 12 9 Paul 3 2 1 Romney 9 7 7 Tancredo - 1 - Thompson 10 12 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 5 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 5 DK/NA 15 13 15



3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        CT      NJ      NY


Clinton 44% 44% 50% Giuliani 42 44 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 4 DK/NA 9 7 9



1. (If registered Democrat)If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                        CT     Men     Wom


Biden 3% 6% 2% Clinton 43 40 44 Dodd 7 11 4 Edwards 8 7 8 Gravel - - - Kucinich 1 1 1 Obama 16 19 15 Richardson 2 2 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 DK/NA 17 14 18



NJ Men Wom

Biden 2% 2% 3% Clinton 46 43 48 Dodd 1 - 1 Edwards 9 10 8 Gravel - - - Kucinich 2 1 2 Obama 20 13 25 Richardson 3 4 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 5 - DK/NA 14 21 9



NY Men Wom

Biden 2% 2% 1% Clinton 49 44 53 Dodd 1 2 1 Edwards 11 12 11 Gravel - 1 - Kucinich 2 3 1 Obama 12 16 10 Richardson 2 3 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 4 DK/NA 16 14 17



2. (If registered Republican)If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo and Fred Thompson for whom would you vote?

                        CT     Men     Wom    


Brownback - - 1% Giuliani 42 42 43 Huckabee 2 2 2 Hunter - - 1 McCain 14 13 15 Paul 3 3 2 Romney 9 7 11 Tancredo - - - Thompson 10 12 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 2 DK/NA 15 15 16



NJ Men Wom

Brownback 1% 2% - Giuliani 48 51 45 Huckabee 1 1 2 Hunter - - - McCain 12 10 13 Paul 2 4 - Romney 7 7 7 Tancredo 1 1 1 Thompson 12 16 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 DK/NA 13 6 21



NY Men Wom

Brownback - - - Giuliani 45 44 47 Huckabee 1 1 - Hunter - - - McCain 9 9 9 Paul 1 1 1 Romney 7 5 9 Tancredo - 1 - Thompson 12 19 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 5 5 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 5 5 DK/NA 15 11 19



3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        CT      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 44% 11% 79% 36% 36% 50% Giuliani 42 79 14 44 49 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 5 4 3 DK/NA 9 7 5 11 9 9



NJ Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Clinton 44% 5% 82% 36% 37% 50% Giuliani 44 89 12 44 53 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - 2 6 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - 3 2 2 DK/NA 7 4 4 10 4 10



NY Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Clinton 50% 11% 78% 46% 47% 52% Giuliani 36 82 12 36 39 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 3 6 4 3 DK/NA 9 5 7 8 7 10



CT TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? na = not asked
                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..
                        Oct 17  May 10  Feb 19
                        2007    2007    2007


Biden 3 2 2 Clark na - 1 Clinton 43 28 33 Dodd 7 6 8 Edwards 8 8 5 Gore na 13 9 Gravel - - na Kucinich 1 1 1 Obama 16 20 21 Richardson 2 1 1 Vilsack na na - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 17 17 16



CT TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, and Fred Thompson, for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                        Oct 17  May 10  Feb 19
                        2007    2007    2007


Brownback - - 1% Gilmore na - - Gingrich na 5 5 Giuliani 42 36 43 Hagel na - 2 Huckabee 2 - 1 Hunter - - 1 McCain 14 15 27 Pataki na 1 - Paul 3 2 na Romney 9 9 4 Tancredo - - - Thompson, F. 10 7 na Thompson, T. na 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 - DK/NA 15 17 12



CT TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        Oct 17  May 10  Feb 19
                        2007    2007    2007


Clinton 44 42 46 Giuliani 42 48 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 DK/NA 9 7 7



NJ TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)
                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..........................
                        Oct 17  Sep 26  Jul 5   Apr 19  Mar 1   Jan 25
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Biden 2 3 2 3 3 6 Clark na na na 1 1 2 Clinton 46 46 37 38 41 30 Dodd 1 - 1 - - - Edwards 9 7 6 9 5 8 Gore na 11 18 12 10 11 Gravel - - - - na na Kucinich 2 1 - - 1 - Obama 20 15 15 16 19 16 Richardson 3 1 4 2 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 - 2 1 DK/NA 14 12 13 16 15 17



NJ TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, and Fred Thompson, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS........................
                        Oct 17  Sep 26  Jul 5   Apr 19  Mar 1   Jan 25
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Brownback 1 - 1 1 - 1 Gilmore na na - - 1 1 Gingrich na 4 6 4 5 11 Giuliani 48 45 46 49 58 39 Hagel na na na - 1 1 Huckabee 1 2 1 - - 1 Hunter - - - - - 1 McCain 12 8 11 18 15 21 Pataki na na na 2 1 3 Paul 2 3 1 - - na Romney 7 6 7 5 2 5 Tancredo 1 - - 1 1 na Thompson, F. 12 12 9 6 na na Thompson, T. na na 1 1 - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 4 1 2 3 DK/NA 13 14 12 10 10 13



NJ TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Oct 17  Sep 26  Jul 5   Apr 19  Mar 1   Jan 25
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Clinton 44 44 44 40 41 41 Giuliani 44 45 47 49 50 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 7 7 6 8 6 8



NY TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? na = not asked
                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..................
                        Oct 17  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Biden 2 3 1 1 1 Clark na na na - 1 Clinton 49 47 44 44 47 Dodd 1 - - - 1 Edwards 11 7 6 9 7 Gore na 9 18 14 11 Gravel - - - - na Kucinich 2 2 1 1 1 Obama 12 15 14 14 16 Richardson 2 1 3 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 16 12 10 13 12



NY TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, and Fred Thompson, for whom would you vote? na = not asked

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS................
                        Oct 17  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Brownback - 1 1 1 - Gilmore na na - - - Gingrich na 5 6 3 6 Giuliani 45 48 46 52 51 Hagel na na na 1 1 Huckabee 1 1 1 - 2 Hunter - - - - 1 McCain 9 8 8 13 17 Pataki na na na 6 7 Paul 1 1 - - na Romney 7 5 3 4 1 Tancredo - 1 - - 1 Thompson, F. 12 8 14 3 na Thompson, T. na na - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 5 3 4 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 4 3 2 2 DK/NA 15 17 14 12 9



NY TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote? * - Hillary Rodham Clinton and Rudolph Giuliani

                        Oct 17  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14  Dec 8   Sep 14
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2004*   2004*


Clinton 50 52 52 50 50 46 43 Giuliani 36 41 37 42 40 45 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 3 2 1 3 1 DK/NA 9 5 7 5 6 5 5