June 12, 2008 - Women Give Obama The Edge In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gas Prices Are Voters' Biggest Money Concern

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With a double-digit lead among women, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the likely Democratic presidential candidate, leads Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican standard-bearer, 45 - 39 percent in New Jersey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This is virtually unchanged from a 46 - 39 percent Obama lead in a February 21 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, when New York Sen. Hillary Clinton still was in the race.

In this latest survey, women back Sen. Obama 46 - 35 percent while men split 44 - 44 percent. Independent voters go 42 percent for Sen. McCain to 40 percent for Obama, while Democrats back Obama 74 - 10 percent and Republicans back McCain 83 - 9 percent.

New Jersey voters give Obama a 56 - 32 percent favorability rating to McCain's 51 - 36 percent.

"Sen. Barack Obama shows every sign of keeping New Jersey in the blue state column in the presidential election, rolling up the kinds of numbers that routinely elect Democrats year after year," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Almost a majority says the economy is the most important issue in the campaign; President Bush's approval rating is near his all time low; only 29 percent support the war in Iraq - all bad news for Sen. John McCain who enters the state with Republicans already the registration underdogs."

New Jersey voters say 53 - 36 percent that Obama should not tap Sen. Clinton as his vice- presidential running mate. Democrats want Clinton on the ticket 51 - 39 percent, while Republicans oppose this marriage 72 - 17 percent, with independent voters opposed 60 - 30 percent.

But voters say 44 - 28 percent that running with Clinton would help Obama. Republicans split 33 - 35 percent, while Democrats say 54 - 17 percent and independent voters say 42 - 35 percent that the "Dream Ticket" would help the Democrats.

Obama cares about their needs and problems, New Jersey voters say 64 - 26 percent, compared to 52 - 39 percent for McCain.

The economy will be the most important factor in their presidential vote, 46 percent of voters say, while 23 percent list the war in Iraq and 11 percent list healthcare.

McCain's age will not affect their vote, 76 percent of voters say, as 21 percent say they will be less likely to vote for him because of his age.

Obama's race will not affect their vote, 88 percent of voters say.

Bush Approval

New Jersey voters disapprove 74 - 22 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, close to his all-time low of 74 - 21 percent in a July 5, 2007 Quinnipiac University poll. Voters say 67 - 29 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.

From June 5 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,473 New Jersey voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Obama                   45%      9%     74%     40%     44%     46%     37%     89%
McCain                  39      83      10      42      44      35      46       5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       2       2       2       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       -       3       3       2       2       2       -
DK/NA                   12       7      11      14       8      15      13       6
 
                                                Philly          Age     Age
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore   18-44   45+
 
Obama                   59%     44%     42%     48%     37%     55%     41%
McCain                  22      42      46      33      46      32      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       1       1       3       3       1       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       1       1       4       2       2       2
DK/NA                   13      12       9      12      12      10      12
 
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican,for whom would you vote?
                        Jun 12  Feb 21  Sep 26  Jul 5   Apr 19  Mar 1   Jan 25
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Obama                   45      46      44      44      43      45      39
McCain                  39      39      41      40      41      41      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       2       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       2       5       4       3       2       2
DK/NA                   12      11       9       9      11      10      15
 
 
5. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Favorable               51%     21%     75%     44%     45%     56%     47%     58%
Unfavorable             45      76      22      52      51      40      49      39
Hvn't hrd enough         2       2       1       1       2       2       2       3
REFUSED                  2       1       2       2       2       3       2       -
 
                                                Philly          Age     Age
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore   18-44   45+
 
Favorable               62%     52%     44%     53%     45%     53%     50%
Unfavorable             36      44      52      43      52      43      47
Hvn't hrd enough         1       2       1       2       2       2       2
REFUSED                  1       2       3       3       2       2       2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                        Jun 12  Feb 21  Dec 13  Sep 26  Jul 5   Apr 19  Mar 1
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Favorable               51      50      43      51      50      49      47
Unfavorable             45      43      42      41      42      43      43
Hvn't hrd enough         2       5      11       6       6       5       8
REFUSED                  2       3       4       2       2       3       2
 
 
6. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Favorable               56%     29%     77%     51%     53%     58%     49%     91%
Unfavorable             32      60      14      33      35      30      37       5
Hvn't hrd enough        11       9       8      14      11      10      12       4
REFUSED                  2       1       1       2       2       2       2       1
 
                                                Philly          Age     Age
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore   18-44   45+
 
Favorable               68%     53%     53%     57%     50%     65%     52%
Unfavorable             24      33      35      32      33      28      34
Hvn't hrd enough         5      12      11       9      15       6      12
REFUSED                  3       1       1       2       3       1       2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Jun 12  Feb 21  Sep 26  Jul 5   Apr 19  Mar 1   Jan 25
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Favorable               56      58      50      49      48      42      41
Unfavorable             32      21      23      21      15      11       9
Hvn't hrd enough        11      19      25      29      34      45      49
REFUSED                  2       3       2       1       2       2       1
 
 
7. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Favorable               51%     84%     23%     60%     56%     47%     57%     16%
Unfavorable             36       9      62      27      36      37      31      70
Hvn't hrd enough        10       6      12       9       6      13       9      11
REFUSED                  3       1       3       4       3       4       3       3
 
                                                Philly          Age     Age
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore   18-44   45+
 
Favorable               40%     55%     50%     48%     56%     45%     53%
Unfavorable             44      34      34      40      33      42      35
Hvn't hrd enough        14       9      12       8       7       9       9
REFUSED                  3       2       4       5       4       4       3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Jun 12  Feb 21  Sep 26  Jul 5   Apr 19  Mar 1   Jan 25
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Favorable               51      52      47      46      52      48      52
Unfavorable             36      28      28      30      24      24      24
Hvn't hrd enough        10      16      23      21      20      25      21
REFUSED                  3       3       3       3       4       4       2
 
 
8. Do you think that Barack Obama should choose Hillary Clinton to be his vice- presidential running mate or not?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Yes                     36%     17%     51%     30%     32%     39%     33%     37%
No                      53      72      39      60      58      49      56      54
DK/NA                   11      11      10      10      10      11      11      10
 
                                                Philly          Age     Age
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore   18-44   45+
 
Yes                     47%     37%     27%     35%     32%     42%     33%
No                      46      51      60      53      57      52      55
DK/NA                    6      12      13      11      11       6      12
 
 
9. Do you think having Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket for vice-president would help or hurt Obama's chances of winning the presidential election, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Help                    44%     33%     54%     42%     40%     47%     42%     42%
Hurt                    28      35      17      35      32      24      30      21
Wldnt make a diff       21      23      22      18      21      21      20      28
DK/NA                    7       9       7       5       6       8       7       9
 
                                                Philly          Age     Age
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore   18-44   45+
 
Help                    52%     44%     38%     43%     43%     48%     42%
Hurt                    21      26      31      25      36      29      27
Wldnt make a diff       20      23      20      24      16      20      22
DK/NA                    6       7      10       7       5       3       9
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Approve                 22%     56%      6%     17%     26%     19%     26%      9%
Disapprove              74      39      93      78      71      77      70      90
DK/NA                    3       5       1       5       3       3       4       -
 
                                                Philly          Age     Age
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore   18-44   45+
 
Approve                 15%     23%     26%     21%     24%     19%     24%
Disapprove              81      73      73      75      72      79      72
DK/NA                    4       4       1       4       4       2       4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Jun 12  Feb 21  Dec 13  Sep 26  Jul 5   Oct 18  Jul 5
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2001    2007
 
Approve                 22      26      26      27      21      90      21
Disapprove              74      70      67      68      74       7      74
DK/NA                    3       5       7       5       4       3       4
 
 
18. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Terrorism                9%     19%      3%      9%      9%      8%     11%      -
The war in Iraq         23      15      29      24      22      24      25      21
The economy             46      46      49      45      47      46      45      45
Illegal immigration      6      12       2       6       8       5       6       4
Health care             11       6      14      10       9      12       9      25
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)      3       1       3       3       3       3       3       2
DK/NA                    2       1       1       2       2       2       2       2
 
                                                Philly          Age     Age
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore   18-44   45+
 
Terrorism                3%     10%     13%      8%      8%      5%     11%
The war in Iraq         21      22      29      24      23      22      24
The economy             42      48      45      46      48      51      44
Illegal immigration      8       6       4       5       7       4       7
Health care             20       8       5      13      11      12      10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)      5       4       1       2       2       4       2
DK/NA                    1       2       2       2       1       1       2
 
 
19. Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Yes                     64%     46%     80%     61%     63%     65%     58%     91%
No                      26      45      12      29      29      25      32       3
DK/NA                   10       9       8      10       8      11      10       7
 
                                                Philly          Age     Age
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore   18-44   45+
 
Yes                     74%     64%     65%     61%     58%     69%     62%
No                      16      29      29      24      31      23      29
DK/NA                   10       7       7      15      11       8      10
 
 
20. Would you say that John McCain cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Yes                     52%     79%     31%     57%     58%     47%     57%     26%
No                      39      14      58      34      36      41      34      64
DK/NA                    9       6      10       9       6      12       9      10
 
                                                Philly          Age     Age
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore   18-44   45+
 
Yes                     44%     55%     53%     48%     54%     47%     54%
No                      46      37      39      42      34      44      37
DK/NA                   10       8       8      10      12       9       9
 
 
21. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72. Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
More likely              2%      4%      1%      3%      3%      1%      2%      -
Less likely             21       8      32      17      18      22      16      47
Doesn't make a diff     76      88      65      80      78      74      81      51
DK/NA                    1       -       2       1       1       2       1       2
 
                                                Philly          Age     Age
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore   18-44   45+
 
More likely              2%      3%      1%      2%      2%      2%      2%
Less likely             25      21      19      20      18      24      19
Doesn't make a diff     72      76      78      76      79      73      77
DK/NA                    1       1       2       2       1       1       2
 
 
22. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
More likely              7%      2%     11%      5%      7%      7%      3%     22%
Less likely              4       7       3       5       5       4       5       -
Doesn't make a diff     88      90      86      90      88      88      91      78
DK/NA                    1       1       -       -       1       1       1       -
 
                                                Philly          Age     Age
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore   18-44   45+
 
More likely             10%      6%      5%     11%      2%     10%      5%
Less likely              6       3       4       3       7       4       5
Doesn't make a diff     83      90      91      84      91      86      89
DK/NA                    1       1       -       2       -       -       1
 
 
23. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Getting ahead           14%     15%     12%     14%     17%     11%     12%     20%
Falling behind          21      16      22      21      17      24      21      20
Holding steady          65      68      65      64      65      65      66      61
DK/NA                    1       -       -       1       1       -       1       -
 
                                                Philly          Age     Age
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore   18-44   45+
 
Getting ahead           18%     14%     11%     13%     11%     17%     12%
Falling behind          23      20      20      20      22      20      21
Holding steady          59      65      69      66      66      63      66
DK/NA                    -       1       -       -       -       -       1
 
 
24. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- a. Declining retirement fund values b. Declining real estate values c. Rising health care costs d. Rising gasoline prices e. Rising food prices
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Retirement funds        12%     12%     13%     12%     11%     13%     13%      8%
Real estate values      10      10      10      10      11       9      11       6
Health care costs       19      14      22      18      18      20      19      25
Gasoline prices         41      45      37      44      42      40      40      44
Food prices             14      14      15      12      14      14      13      15
DK/NA                    3       4       3       3       3       4       4       2
 
                                                Philly          Age     Age
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore   18-44   45+
 
Retirement funds        11%     12%     13%     13%     10%      5%     16%
Real estate values       7      12       8       9      13      14       8
Health care costs       20      20      15      23      19      16      21
Gasoline prices         29      42      47      39      45      47      38
Food prices             29      12      12      12       9      17      13
DK/NA                    3       3       4       4       4       1       5
 
 
25. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Right thing             29%     64%      7%     27%     34%     24%     34%      7%
Wrong thing             67      31      91      67      63      71      62      91
DK/NA                    4       5       2       6       3       4       4       1
 
                                                Philly          Age     Age
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore   18-44   45+
 
Right thing             19%     31%     32%     28%     30%     24%     31%
Wrong thing             76      66      64      69      64      73      65
DK/NA                    5       3       5       3       6       3       4
 
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Right   Right
                        Jun 12  Feb 21  Jul 5   Apr 19  Mar 1   Oct 19  Jun 12
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2004    2008
 
Right thing             29      31      32      33      32      44      29
Wrong thing             67      65      64      62      64      51      67
DK/NA                    4       5       5       5       3       5       4
 
 
26. What should the United States do in Iraq? Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR keep troops in Iraq as long as needed?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Withdraw all troops     22%      8%     31%     22%     18%     26%     19%     22%
Set a timetable         49      37      58      47      45      52      48      66
Keep troops as needed   26      52       8      30      35      19      30       9
DK/NA                    2       3       3       1       2       3       2       3
 
                                                Philly          Age     Age
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore   18-44   45+
 
Withdraw all troops     23%     28%     17%     20%     18%     26%     21%
Set a timetable         55      43      51      53      50      50      49
Keep troops as needed   18      27      28      25      30      21      28
DK/NA                    4       1       4       2       2       3       2