August 13, 2008 - Blacks, Women Give Obama 10-Point Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back Offshore Drilling Almost 2 - 1

Word format

With the support of 94 percent of black voters and a 15-point lead among women, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama tops Arizona Sen. John McCain 51 - 41 percent among New Jersey likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Independent voters go 45 percent for Sen. Obama and 42 percent for Sen. McCain. Men also give the Democrat a slight edge, 48 - 45 percent, while women back Obama 53 - 38 percent. McCain leads 50 - 42 percent among white voters. Obama leads 66 - 28 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 51 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, as McCain has a 47 - 44 percent edge with voters over 55 years old, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

New Jersey voters give Obama a 57 - 31 percent favorability rating to McCain's 54 - 35 percent. Twenty-two percent of Obama voters and 22 percent of McCain voters say they might change their mind before Election Day.

"New Jersey continues to wear its true blue stripes and appears to be solidly in Sen. Barack Obama's corner heading into the Fall campaign. Like most strong Republican contenders, Sen. John McCain can wish, but it is unlikely that he can swing the tide in New Jersey unless he swings the tide dramatically nationwide," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Obama cares about their needs and problems, New Jersey likely voters say 60 - 32 percent, while voters say 52 - 42 percent that McCain cares.

The economy is the most important issue in their vote for President, 51 percent of New Jersey likely voters say, followed by 17 percent who list the war in Iraq, 10 percent who list terrorism and 9 percent who list health care.

New Jersey voters disapprove 70 - 26 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing and say 62 - 34 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.

Still, voters say 52 - 44 percent that the U.S. should keep troops in Iraq until the country is stable rather than set a fixed withdrawal timetable.

Energy Issues

Asked which economic issue worries them the most, 28 percent of voters say gasoline prices, followed by 23 percent who cite health care and 16 percent who list food prices.

By a 62 - 34 percent margin, New Jersey voters support drilling for oil in currently protected offshore areas. Republicans back it 84 - 14 percent, as do independent voters 66 - 29 percent. Democrats oppose offshore drilling 51 - 42 percent.

New Jersey voters also support new nuclear power plants 61 - 32 percent, and drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge 53 - 41 percent.

"New Jersey voters may like their beaches, but they also like being able to fill the tank and drive to the beaches," Richards said. "If Obama is going to continue his opposition to offshore drilling, he'll have to convince voters it won't help bring down the price of gas."

From August 4 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,468 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                51%    11%    86%    45%    48%    53%    42%    94%
McCain               41     87      8     42     45     38     50      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      2      5     12      6      9      7      4
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q19                      Philly
                     War    Econ   Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Obama                73%    55%    60%    57%    41%    50%    44%
McCain               22     37     30     33     52     43     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      -      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      7      9      9      6      6      5
 
                                          WHITE...........................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Cath   Jew
 
Obama                66%    51%    44%    38%    49%    37%    46%    36%    59%
McCain               28     42     47     52     45     55     44     54     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1      2      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      6      8      9      5      6      9      8      8
 
                     PresVt2004..  BushJobAppQ14
                     Bush   Kerry  App    Dis
 
Obama                13%    84%    12%    67%
McCain               82     10     84     25
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      5      3      7
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED VOTERS............................................
                     Aug 13  Jun 12  Feb 21  Sep 26  Jul 5   Apr 19  Mar 1  Jan 25
                     2008    2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007   2007
                                                                            
Obama                46       45      46      44      44      43      45     39
McCain               37       39      39      41      40      41      41     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2        2       2       1       2       2       2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2        2       2       5       4       3       2      2
DK/NA                13       12      11       9       9      11      10     15
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              76%    76%    76%
Might change         22     22     22
DK/NA                 2      2      2
 
 
8. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            57%    24%    87%    53%    55%    59%    49%    94%
Unfavorable          31     66      7     30     36     26     38      -
Hvn't hrd enough      9      8      6     11      6     11     10      4
REFUSED               3      2      1      6      2      4      3      2
 
 
9. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            54%    89%    23%    61%    59%    49%    61%    23%
Unfavorable          35      6     64     26     34     37     30     61
Hvn't hrd enough      8      4     10      9      5     11      7     14
REFUSED               3      1      2      3      2      3      3      2
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              26%    63%     5%    23%    25%    26%    29%    13%
Disapprove           70     34     92     73     70     70     68     81
DK/NA                 4      3      3      4      4      4      3      6
 
 
19. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Terrorism            10%    25%     2%     9%    11%    10%    12%     -
The war in Iraq      17      9     26     13     15     19     17     24
The economy          51     44     54     53     55     48     50     60
Illegal immigration   6     10      3      8      7      6      7      2
Health care           9      7     12      8      5     12      8     12
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   3      2      2      4      4      2      3      2
DK/NA                 3      3      2      3      2      4      3      -
 
 
20. Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  60%    36%    84%    57%    57%    63%    55%    89%
No                   32     59      9     33     38     26     37      5
DK/NA                 8      5      7     11      5     11      8      6
 
 
21. Would you say that John McCain cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  52%    80%    30%    57%    55%    48%    59%    22%
No                   42     17     63     36     41     44     36     71
DK/NA                 6      4      7      7      4      8      5      7
 
 
22. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72 - Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
More likely           1%     3%     0%     2%     1%     2%     1%     2%
Less likely          20      7     31     17     18     21     17     34
Doesn't make diff    78     90     66     80     80     75     81     63
DK/NA                 1      -      2      1      1      2      1      2
 
 
23. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
More likely           6%     2%    10%     4%     6%     6%     3%    21%
Less likely           3      7      2      2      3      3      4      -
Doesn't make diff    90     91     86     94     90     90     92     76
DK/NA                 1      -      2      1      1      2      1      3
 
 
24. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Very satisfied        2%     3%     1%     2%     1%     2%     1%     4%
Smwht satisfied      18     35     10     15     19     17     19     10
Smwht dissatisfied   37     41     33     39     40     36     39     29
Very dissatisfied    42     21     55     44     40     44     40     56
DK/NA                 1      -      1      -      -      1      1      1
 
 
25. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Getting ahead        11%    16%     7%    11%    15%     8%    11%    10%
Falling behind       23     17     28     22     22     24     22     31
Holding steady       65     65     64     66     62     67     66     58
DK/NA                 1      2      1      -      2      1      1      1
 
 
26. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- A) declining retirement fund values, B) declining real estate values, C) rising health care costs D) rising gasoline prices, or E) rising food prices?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
A) Retirement funds  15%    17%    14%    14%    14%    16%    16%    17%
B) Real estate vals  13     12     15     11     14     12     13     16
C) Health care cost  23     22     27     22     18     28     23     27
D) Gasoline prices   28     32     22     30     34     22     27     23
E) Food prices       16     15     16     17     15     17     17      8
DK/NA                 5      2      6      5      5      5      4      8
 
 
27. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Right thing          34%    70%     9%    33%    37%    31%    39%    10%
Wrong thing          62     27     89     60     59     64     57     87
DK/NA                 4      4      2      6      3      5      4      4
 
 
28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
A) Begin immediate
   withdrawal/18 mos 44%    15%    67%    39%    39%    48%    40%    68%
B) Stay until stable/
   No fixed dates    52     83     29     57     58     47     57     25
DK/NA                 4      3      4      4      3      5      3      7
 
 
29. To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - Building new nuclear power plants?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Support              61%    77%    43%    68%    76%    47%    65%    41%
Oppose               32     17     49     25     22     42     28     51
DK/NA                 7      6      7      8      2     11      8      8
 
 
30. To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - Drilling for new oil supplies in currently protected areas off shore?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Support              62%    84%    42%    66%    65%    59%    65%    48%
Oppose               34     14     51     29     32     35     32     41
DK/NA                 5      3      6      4      3      6      4     11
 
 
31. To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - Drilling for new oil in the Alaskan national wildlife refuge?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Support              53%    81%    33%    55%    58%    49%    56%    41%
Oppose               41     16     59     40     39     44     40     44
DK/NA                 6      3      8      6      4      7      4     15