September 30, 2009 - Corzine Creeps Up On Christie In New Jersey Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Favor Property Tax Cap 8-1

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Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine has cut Republican challenger Christopher Christie's lead in half and now trails the former federal prosecutor 43 - 39 percent among New Jersey likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independent candidate Christopher Daggett has 12 points, with 6 percent undecided.

This compares to a 47 - 37 percent Christie lead, with 9 percent for Daggett, in a September 1 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Corzine leads 71 - 10 percent among Democratic likely voters, with 11 percent for Daggett. Christie leads 83 - 6 percent among Republicans, with 9 percent for Daggett.

Independent voters shift from 46 - 30 percent for Christie, with 16 percent for Daggett September 1, to 45 - 32 percent for Christie, with 16 percent for Daggett today.

New Jersey voters disapprove 58 - 36 percent of the job Gov. Corzine is doing, little changed from deep disapproval scores in July, August and September. Independent voters disapprove 63 - 31 percent, continuing the double-digit disapproval by this key voting bloc.

"Christopher Christie is still ahead in the Garden State, but when he looks in the rear- view mirror, he sees the bearded visage of Gov. Jon Corzine getting closer," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"This race looks as if it will go down to the wire. Does Christopher Daggett's impressive climb measure a swing to him or simply a distaste for the two guys hollering at each other? Will Daggett fade on Election Day? At this stage, his numbers matter."

New Jersey voters split 38 - 38 percent in whether they have a favorable/unfavorable opinion of Christie, his worst measure of favorability so far.

By a 56 - 34 percent margin, voters have a negative opinion of Corzine, little changed from earlier surveys.

For Daggett, 84 percent still don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

In an open-ended question, where respondents can give any answer, 41 percent of New Jersey likely voters list taxes as the most important campaign issue, followed by 17 percent who list the economy or unemployment. Only 4 percent list political corruption, while another 4 percent cite honesty or morality.

Voters split 44 - 45 percent on whether Corzine is honest and trustworthy, better than September 1 when voters said 51 - 40 percent that he is not honest and trustworthy.

Christie gets a 37 - 36 percent split on the honest and trustworthy question, down from September 1 when voters said 44 - 31 percent he is honest and trustworthy.

If Corzine is elected, property taxes will go up, 61 percent of voters say, while 32 percent say they will stay the same.

Property taxes would go up under Christie, 34 percent say, as 46 percent say they would stay the same.

"The attack-attack-attack style of this rugged campaign is taking a toll on Christie, whose favorability and honesty measures are dropping," Carroll said. "But the Republican is the big winner when voters turn their attention to the biggest campaign issue - TAXES."

Property Tax Cap

New Jersey voters say 85 - 11 percent that there should be a cap on how much property taxes can be raised. Support for the cap is over 80 percent in every group measured.

But voters oppose 54 - 39 percent raising the state income tax or sales tax in order to provide property tax relief.

"New Jersey's property taxes are high and voters want to cap the increase, but they don't want to raise other taxes to do it," Carroll said.

From September 22 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,188 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed: http://ww.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, Christopher Christie the Republican, and Christopher Daggett the independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine, Christie, or Daggett? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Corzine              39%     6%    71%    32%    34%    43%
Christie             43     83     10     45     50     37
Daggett              12      9     11     16     12     13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      2      8      7      4      8
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Corzine              64%    40%    22%    48%    25%
Christie             23     41     59     35     53
Daggett              10     10     17     11     14
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      9      2      6      8
 
TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, Christopher Christie the Republican, and Christopher Daggett the independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine, Christie, or Daggett? This table includes Leaners.
                 LIKELY VOTERS.................  INDEPENDENT LIKELY VOTERS.....
                 Sep 30  Sep 1   Aug 11  Jul 14  Sep 30  Sep 1   Aug 11  Jul 14
                 2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Corzine          39      37      40      38      32      30      25      24
Christie         43      47      46      47      45      46      55      54
Daggett          12       9       7       8      16      16      13      13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)   -       -       -       -       -       -       -       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)  -       -       -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA             6       6       6       7       7       8       7       9
 
 
2. Is your opinion of - Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            38%    73%    11%    38%    45%    32%
Unfavorable          38     14     58     35     38     38
Hvn't hrd enough     22     12     29     25     15     29
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      2      2
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Favorable            18%    41%    52%    28%    44%
Unfavorable          53     33     35     43     34
Hvn't hrd enough     26     26     11     27     20
REFUSED               3      1      3      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Sep 30  Sep 1   Aug 11  Jul 14
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Favorable            38      41      42      39
Unfavorable          38      30      26      20
Hvn't hrd enough     22      27      30      40
REFUSED               2       2       3       1
 
 
3. Is your opinion of - Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            34%     7%    61%    29%    32%    37%
Unfavorable          56     88     28     61     59     53
Hvn't hrd enough      6      4      7      6      7      6
REFUSED               4      -      4      4      3      5
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Favorable            56%    35%    20%    42%    23%
Unfavorable          28     54     77     45     70
Hvn't hrd enough     12      5      3     10      4
REFUSED               4      6      -      3      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Sep 30  Sep 1   Aug 11  Jul 14
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Favorable            34      34      37      34
Unfavorable          56      57      54      58
Hvn't hrd enough      6       6       6       6
REFUSED               4       3       2       2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of - Christopher Daggett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            11%    12%     7%    16%    14%     9%
Unfavorable           3      1      6      3      3      4
Hvn't hrd enough     84     87     87     81     83     86
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      1      -
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Favorable             6%    10%    15%    10%    16%
Unfavorable           4      4      1      3      5
Hvn't hrd enough     89     86     83     87     77
REFUSED               1      1      -      -      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Christopher Daggett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Sep 30  Sep 1   Aug 11  Jul 14
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Favorable            11       8       4       5
Unfavorable           3       4       3       2
Hvn't hrd enough     84      87      92      92
REFUSED               1       1       1       1
 
 
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              36%     9%    63%    31%    32%    40%
Disapprove           58     89     29     63     64     52
DK/NA                 7      2      8      7      5      8
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Approve              57%    35%    24%    42%    26%
Disapprove           35     56     74     51     68
DK/NA                 8      9      1      7      6
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Sep 30  Sep 1   Aug 11  Jul 14
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              36      34      36      33
Disapprove           58      60      58      60
DK/NA                 7       6       6       7
 
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              24%    11%    40%    20%    22%    26%
Disapprove           61     78     40     72     68     54
DK/NA                15     11     20      8     10     20
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Approve              30%    29%    18%    25%    17%
Disapprove           52     57     70     56     71
DK/NA                18     15     12     19     12
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Sep 30  Sep 1   Aug 11  Jul 14
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              24      25      23      27
Disapprove           61      64      63      59
DK/NA                15      11      15      13
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              56%    23%    89%    50%    50%    61%
Disapprove           39     71      8     44     44     34
DK/NA                 5      6      3      6      5      5
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Sep 30  Sep 1   Jul 14
                     2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              56      51      60
Disapprove           39      43      34
DK/NA                 5       6       6
 
 
8. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Very satisfied        2%     1%     4%     1%     1%     2%
Smwht satisfied      30     12     48     26     30     31
Smwht dissatisfied   33     38     33     31     31     36
Very dissatisfied    34     49     15     42     38     31
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Very satisfied        5%     1%     1%     3%     1%
Smwht satisfied      41     29     25     41     20
Smwht dissatisfied   34     35     33     32     31
Very dissatisfied    21     34     41     24     48
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Sep 30  Sep 1   Aug 11  Sep 28
                     2009    2009    2009    2005
 
Very satisfied        2       2       4       3
Smwht satisfied      30      28      29      34
Smwht dissatisfied   33      32      30      33
Very dissatisfied    34      37      36      28
DK/NA                 -       1       1       -
 
 
9. What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year?
                             LIKELY VOTERS
 
Taxes Total                  41%
 Taxes general               14
 Property tax                26
 Income Tax                   1
 
Economy Total                17%
 Economy general              6
 Unemployment/Jobs           10
 Cost of living               1
 
Budget Total                  7%
 Budget general               3
 Budget deficits              1
 Gov too big/Gov spending     2
 Budget priorities            1
 
Healthcare Total              7%
 Healthcare/Costs/Ins/HMO's   6
 Medicare                     1
 
Politicians Total             7%
 Politicians/Campaigns gen    1
 Political corruption         4
 Governor/State leadership    2
 
Honesty/Morality              4%
 Honesty                      2
 Lack of ethics/Morality      2
 
Education Total               3%
 Education general            2
 Funding education            1
 
 Crime/Violence general       1
Abortion                      1
Environment/Pollution         1
 
Other                         4
DK/NA                         6
 
 
10. Would you say that Jon Corzine has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  54%    31%    79%    49%    48%    59%
No                   42     66     16     47     49     35
DK/NA                 4      3      5      4      2      6
 
TREND: Would you say that Jon Corzine has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Sep 30  Sep 1   Sep 28  Aug 10
                     2009    2009    2005    2005
 
Yes                  54      48      67      60
No                   42      47      20      18
DK/NA                 4       5      13      22
 
 
11. Would you say that Jon Corzine is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  44%    21%    66%    40%    47%    41%
No                   45     72     23     48     46     45
DK/NA                11      8     11     12      7     14
 
TREND: Would you say that Jon Corzine is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Sep 30  Sep 1   Oct 19  Sep 28
                     2009    2009    2005    2005
 
Yes                  44      40      53      55
No                   45      51      29      25
DK/NA                11      10      18      20
 
 
12. Would you say that Jon Corzine cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  42%    17%    69%    35%    39%    45%
No                   52     79     25     59     56     49
DK/NA                 6      4      5      6      5      6
 
TREND: Would you say that Jon Corzine cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Sep 30  Sep 1   Sep 28
                     2009    2009    2005
 
Yes                  42      41      56
No                   52      54      31
DK/NA                 6       6      13
 
 
13. Would you say that Christopher Christie has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  46%    73%    22%    54%    51%    42%
No                   30     12     45     25     33     28
DK/NA                24     15     33     21     16     30
 
TREND: Would you say that Christopher Christie has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Sep 30  Sep 1
                     2009    2009
 
Yes                  46      52
No                   30      25
DK/NA                24      23
 
 
14. Would you say that Christopher Christie is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  37%    67%    14%    40%    45%    30%
No                   36     15     54     30     35     37
DK/NA                27     18     32     31     20     33
 
TREND: Would you say that Christopher Christie is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Sep 30  Sep 1
                     2009    2009
 
Yes                  37      44
No                   36      31
DK/NA                27      25
 
 
15. Would you say that Christopher Christie cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  42%    75%    19%    42%    46%    38%
No                   37     13     54     37     38     37
DK/NA                21     12     27     21     16     25
 
TREND: Would you say that Christopher Christie cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Sep 30  Sep 1
                     2009    2009
 
Yes                  42      47
No                   37      34
DK/NA                21      19
 
 
16. If Jon Corzine is reelected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Go up                61%    84%    34%    71%    65%    57%
Go down               3      1      7      1      2      4
Stay about same      32     13     55     24     30     34
DK/NA                 4      1      4      4      3      5
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Go up                45%    57%    73%    58%    69%
Go down              12      1      2      4      1
Stay about same      37     36     23     36     25
DK/NA                 6      5      2      1      5
 
 
17. If Christopher Christie is elected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Go up                34%    22%    41%    38%    35%    34%
Go down               9     16      2      8     11      6
Stay about same      46     55     39     46     49     43
DK/NA                11      6     18      8      5     17
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Go up                43%    32%    26%    40%    36%
Go down               7      9     10      8      7
Stay about same      35     46     57     43     45
DK/NA                16     13      7      9     11
 
 
18. Should there be a cap on how much property taxes can be raised annually in New Jersey or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  85%    85%    83%    89%    84%    85%
No                   11     11     13      8     12     10
DK/NA                 4      4      3      3      4      5
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Yes                  82%    82%    89%    86%    88%
No                   13     12      9     10      8
DK/NA                 5      7      2      4      3
 
 
19. If needed to achieve meaningful property tax relief, would you support or oppose an increase in one of the major state taxes such as the state income or sales taxes?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Support              39%    29%    53%    38%    41%    38%
Oppose               54     65     43     57     56     53
DK/NA                 6      7      4      4      4      9
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Support              47%    41%    33%    36%    38%
Oppose               42     53     64     57     54
DK/NA                11      6      3      6      8
 
 
20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who would you rather have take a school class on a tour of the state government in Trenton - Jon Corzine or Christopher Christie?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Corzine              49%    21%    77%    45%    46%    52%
Christie             38     69     17     36     41     35
DK/NA                13     10      6     19     13     13
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Corzine              68%    50%    41%    49%    40%
Christie             21     38     48     35     44
DK/NA                10     13     11     16     17
 
 
21. When you decide how to vote for governor, how important is it to you that the candidate have a likeable personality - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Very important       22%    19%    29%    17%    22%    23%
Smwht important      39     45     37     39     35     43
Not too important    23     18     23     29     24     23
Not important at all 15     17     11     15     19     11
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -
 
TREND: When you decide how to vote for governor, how important is it to you that the candidate has a likeable personality - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Sep 30  Sep 1   Aug 11  Jul 14
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Very important       22      23      22      22
Smwht important      39      43      43      45
Not too important    23      20      22      19
Not imptnt at all    15      12      13      13
DK/NA                 -       1       -       1