October 28, 2009 - Corzine Up 5 Points In New Jersey Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Governor Tops Christie On 'Honesty' Score

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New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine leads Republican challenger Christopher Christie for the first time in their five-month slugfest, on top 43 - 38 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independent candidate Christopher Daggett has 13 percent, with 5 percent undecided.

This compares to a 41 - 40 percent Christie lead, with 14 percent for Daggett, in an October 14 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Among Daggett supporters, 38 percent say they might change their mind: 43 percent say Christie is their second choice, while 27 percent say Gov. Corzine is number two.

Only 12 percent of Christie voters and 19 percent of Corzine backers say they might change their mind.

Corzine leads 79 - 8 percent among Democratic likely voters, with 10 percent for Daggett. Christie leads 79 - 7 percent among Republicans, with 9 percent for Daggett, and 45 - 30 percent among independent voters, with 20 percent for Daggett.

New Jersey voters disapprove 54 - 39 percent of the job Corzine is doing, still negative, but his best overall approval rating in months. Independent voters disapprove 68 - 29 percent.

"You could see it coming. Gov. Jon Corzine's numbers crept steadily up and Christopher Christie's steadily shrank and now, for the first time, we have Corzine ahead," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"But don't be in a hurry to mark this election as over. Christopher Daggett changed it from 'ABC' - Anybody But Corzine - to a real three-way scrap. But a lot of Daggett's voters say they might change their minds by Election Day. Where will they go?"

"Can Daggett win? More than two-thirds of New Jerseyans don't think so," Carroll added.

New Jersey voters say 46 - 44 percent that Corzine is honest and trustworthy, his best 'honesty' score in months and the first time the score has been positive this year.

These same voters split on Christie, with 37 percent saying he is honest and trustworthy and 39 percent saying he is not. This is Christie's worst score on this question.

Property taxes will go up if Corzine is elected, 60 percent of voters say, while 2 percent say they will go down and 34 percent say they will stay the same.

If Christie is elected, property taxes will go up, 37 percent of voters say, while 12 percent say they will go down and 44 percent say they will stay the same.

Of the 90 percent of New Jersey voters who have seen Corzine's TV ads:
  • 14 percent say the ads make them more likely to vote for the Governor;
  • 31 percent say less likely;
  • 54 percent say the ads won't affect their vote;
  • 66 percent find the ads annoying;
  • 29 percent say the ads are informative.
Of the 86 percent of New Jersey voters who have seen Christie's TV ads:
  • 17 percent say the ads make them more likely to vote for the challenger;
  • 28 percent say less likely;
  • 53 percent say the ads won't affect their vote;
  • 58 percent find the ads annoying;
  • 35 percent say the ads are informative.
"The drumbeat of denunciation has dropped Christie down to Corzine's negative level in the favorable-unfavorable match. And it's produced a reversal on 'honest and trustworthy.' Corzine comes out plus; Christie tips to a minus," Carroll said.

"Everyone says negative advertising is bad, but everybody watches it. Virtually every New Jersey voter has seen the Corzine and Christie ads and most think that they're more annoying than informative."

From October 20 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,267 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, Christopher Christie the Republican, and Christopher Daggett the independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine, Christie, or Daggett? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Corzine              43%     7%    79%    30%    34%    51%
Christie             38     79      8     45     46     31
Daggett              13      9     10     20     15     12
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      4      3      5      4      5
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Corzine              61%    48%    25%    51%    26%
Christie             24     34     50     31     56
Daggett              10     15     18     12      9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      3      6      5      8
 
TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, Christopher Christie the Republican, and Christopher Daggett the independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine, Christie, or Daggett? This table includes Leaners.
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Oct 28  Oct 14  Sep 30  Sep 1   Aug 11  Jul 14
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Corzine              43      40      39      37      40      38
Christie             38      41      43      47      46      47
Daggett              13      14      12       9       7       8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       -       -       -       -       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 5       5       6       6       6       7
 
                     INDEPENDENT LIKELY VOTERS.....................
                     Oct 28  Oct 14  Sep 30  Sep 1   Aug 11  Jul 14
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Corzine              30      32      32      30      25      24
Christie             45      41      45      46      55      54
Daggett              20      20      16      16      13      13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -       -       -       -       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 5       8       7       8       7       9
 
 
1a. (If candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1.............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Made up              81%    86%    79%    79%    82%    80%
Might change         19     13     21     20     18     20
DK/NA                 -      1      -      1      -      1
 
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1....
                     Tot    Corz   Chris  Dagg
 
Made up              81%    80%    88%    60%
Might change         19     19     12     38
DK/NA                 -      -      -      1
 
TREND: Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 28  Oct 14
                     2009    2009
 
Made up              81      72
Might change         19      27
DK/NA                 -       1
 
 
1b. (If Daggett voter q1) Who is your second choice for governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     DAGGETT VOTERS Q1
 
Corzine              27%
Christie             43
Someone else          4
No one/Wouldn't vote 18
DK/NA                 9
 
TREND: (If Daggett voter q1) Who is your second choice for governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     DAGGETT VOTERS Q1
                     Oct 28  Oct 14
                     2009    2009
 
Corzine              27      33
Christie             43      40
Someone else          4       4
No one/WLDN'T VOTE   18      13
DK/NA                 9      10
 
 
2. Is your opinion of - Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            37%    74%    10%    41%    44%    30%
Unfavorable          42     12     63     39     37     47
Hvn't hrd enough     18     12     23     18     16     19
REFUSED               4      2      5      2      3      4
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Favorable            25%    34%    45%    31%    50%
Unfavorable          46     48     37     45     29
Hvn't hrd enough     24     15     14     21     19
REFUSED               5      3      4      4      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Oct 28  Oct 14  Sep 30  Sep 1   Aug 11  Jul 14
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Favorable            37      38      38      41      42      39
Unfavorable          42      40      38      30      26      20
Hvn't hrd enough     18      20      22      27      30      40
REFUSED               4       2       2       2       3       1
 
 
3. Is your opinion of - Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            41%     8%    72%    29%    34%    47%
Unfavorable          52     88     18     67     58     46
Hvn't hrd enough      5      2      7      2      5      4
REFUSED               3      1      3      2      3      3
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Favorable            57%    44%    25%    48%    28%
Unfavorable          32     48     70     42     67
Hvn't hrd enough      6      5      2      8      3
REFUSED               5      3      3      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Oct 28  Oct 14  Sep 30  Sep 1   Aug 11  Jul 14
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Favorable            41      40      34      34      37      34
Unfavorable          52      53      56      57      54      58
Hvn't hrd enough      5       4       6       6       6       6
REFUSED               3       3       4       3       2       2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of - Christopher Daggett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            21%    18%    16%    30%    21%    21%
Unfavorable          16     24     10     17     19     13
Hvn't hrd enough     61     54     72     50     58     63
REFUSED               3      4      2      3      2      3
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Favorable            13%    22%    30%    16%    21%
Unfavorable          15     15     20     12     18
Hvn't hrd enough     69     62     45     71     56
REFUSED               4      1      5      1      5
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Christopher Daggett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Oct 28  Oct 14  Sep 30  Sep 1   Aug 11  Jul 14
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Favorable            21      19      11       8       4       5
Unfavorable          16       7       3       4       3       2
Hvn't hrd enough     61      73      84      87      92      92
REFUSED               3       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              39%    10%    70%    29%    34%    44%
Disapprove           54     88     21     68     62     47
DK/NA                 6      2     10      3      3      9
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Approve              56%    45%    24%    43%    25%
Disapprove           37     49     70     51     69
DK/NA                 6      6      6      6      6
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Oct 28  Oct 14  Sep 30  Sep 1   Aug 11  Jul 14
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              39      39      36      34      36      33
Disapprove           54      56      58      60      58      60
DK/NA                 6       5       7       6       6       7
 
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              26%     5%    44%    20%    22%    30%
Disapprove           61     85     38     70     69     54
DK/NA                13     10     17     10      9     16
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Approve              31%    29%    14%    34%    19%
Disapprove           52     58     75     51     70
DK/NA                17     12     11     15     11
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Oct 28  Oct 15  Sep 30  Sep 1   Aug 11  Jul 14
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              26      25      24      25      23      27
Disapprove           61      62      61      64      63      59
DK/NA                13      13      15      11      15      13
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              55%    19%    87%    46%    47%    61%
Disapprove           39     75      8     46     47     33
DK/NA                 6      6      5      7      6      6
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Approve              73%    59%    39%    59%    41%
Disapprove           26     35     53     35     51
DK/NA                 1      6      8      6      8
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Oct 28  Oct 15  Sep 30  Sep 1   Jul 14
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              55      55      56      51      60
Disapprove           39      40      39      43      34
DK/NA                 6       5       5       6       6
 
 
8. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Very satisfied        3%     -      7%     2%     2%     4%
Smwht satisfied      28     11     47     19     26     30
Smwht dissatisfied   33     36     31     33     31     34
Very dissatisfied    35     53     14     46     39     32
DK/NA                 1      -      2      -      1      -
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Very satisfied        3%     5%     1%     3%     2%
Smwht satisfied      35     32     17     34     20
Smwht dissatisfied   36     32     42     24     30
Very dissatisfied    23     31     40     38     47
DK/NA                 3      -      1      -      1
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisified, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Oct 28  Oct 15  Sep 30  Sep 1   Aug 11  Sep 28
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2005
 
Very satisfied        3       3       2       2       4       3
Smwht satisfied      28      29      30      28      29      34
Smwhat dissatisfied  33      30      33      32      30      33
Very dissatisfied    35      37      34      37      36      28
DK/NA                 1       -       -       1       1       -
 
 
9. Would you say that Jon Corzine is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  46%    17%    71%    40%    42%    49%
No                   44     75     20     51     51     39
DK/NA                10      8      9      9      7     12
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Yes                  57%    51%    35%    49%    34%
No                   31     42     54     38     59
DK/NA                12      7     11     13      7
 
TREND: Would you say that Jon Corzine is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Oct 28  Oct 14  Sep 30  Sep 1   Oct 19  Sep 28
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2005    2005
 
Yes                  46      45      44      40      53      55
No                   44      48      45      51      29      25
DK/NA                10       7      11      10      18      20
 
 
10. Would you say that Christopher Christie is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  37%    66%    18%    41%    45%    30%
No                   39     15     54     38     35     43
DK/NA                24     18     28     21     20     27
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Yes                  29%    37%    43%    33%    44%
No                   46     40     35     41     34
DK/NA                25     23     22     26     23
 
TREND: Would you say that Christopher Christie is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     Oct 28  Oct 14  Sep 30  Sep 1
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Yes                  37      42      37      44
No                   39      40      36      31
DK/NA                24      18      27      25
 
 
11. Would you say that Christopher Daggett is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  29%    29%    22%    39%    32%    26%
No                   14     15     15     12     14     14
DK/NA                57     56     63     50     54     60
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Yes                  23%    28%    36%    24%    35%
No                   20     12     14     12     14
DK/NA                57     60     50     64     51
 
TREND: Would you say that Christopher Daggett is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 28  Oct 14
                     2009    2009
 
Yes                  29      29
No                   14       8
DK/NA                57      63
 
 
12. If Jon Corzine is reelected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Go up                60%    84%    38%    68%    67%    54%
Go down               2      2      3      1      1      3
Stay about same      34     13     54     29     29     39
DK/NA                 3      1      4      2      3      3
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Go up                52%    58%    71%    55%    66%
Go down               7      2      1      -      1
Stay about same      37     38     26     39     29
DK/NA                 5      2      2      5      3
 
TREND: If Jon Corzine is reelected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 28  Oct 14  Sep 30
                     2009    2009    2009
 
Go up                60      62      61
Go down               2       5       3
Stay about same      34      30      32
DK/NA                 3       3       4
 
 
13. If Christopher Christie is elected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Go up                37%    17%    49%    38%    34%    39%
Go down              12     25      4     12     14     11
Stay about same      44     54     37     45     47     41
DK/NA                 8      4     10      6      5     10
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Go up                44%    38%    32%    41%    28%
Go down               7     10     12     14     20
Stay about same      40     44     51     37     44
DK/NA                 9      8      5      8      8
 
TREND: If Christopher Christie is elected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 28  Oct 14  Sep 30
                     2009    2009    2009
 
Go up                37      35      34
Go down              12      16       9
Stay about same      44      40      46
DK/NA                 8       8      11
 
 
14. If Christopher Daggett is elected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Go up                39%    41%    38%    37%    39%    39%
Go down               6      7      3      8      7      5
Stay about same      32     29     32     36     35     29
DK/NA                23     23     27     19     19     28
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Go up                39%    40%    37%    37%    40%
Go down               5      5      7      3      9
Stay about same      31     33     34     30     31
DK/NA                25     22     21     30     20
 
TREND: If Christopher Daggett is elected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 28  Oct 14
                     2009    2009
 
Go up                39      22
Go down               6      11
Stay about the same  32      32
DK/NA                23      35
 
 
15. Have you seen any of Jon Corzine's television advertisements for this year's election for governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  90%    90%    90%    92%    89%    91%
No                   10     10      9      8     11      8
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Yes                  91%    94%    88%    83%    92%
No                    9      6     12     17      8
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -
 
 
16. (If yes q15) Do they make you more likely to vote for Jon Corzine, less likely to vote for Jon Corzine, or don't they make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     SEEN CORZINE ADS......................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
More likely          14%     2%    27%     6%     9%    17%
Less likely          31     53      9     43     38     25
Don't make diff      54     44     62     50     52     57
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      1      1
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
More likely          22%    14%     5%    15%    11%
Less likely          22     28     45     28     37
Don't make diff      55     57     49     57     50
DK/NA                 -      1      -      1      2
 
 
17. (If yes q15) From what you have seen of Jon Corzine's television ads, are they more informative or more annoying?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     SEEN CORZINE ADS......................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Informative          29%    11%    53%    14%    23%    33%
Annoying             66     86     41     82     73     60
DK/NA                 5      3      7      4      4      7
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Informative          50%    29%    12%    35%    20%
Annoying             45     67     82     59     75
DK/NA                 5      5      6      6      5
 
 
18. Have you seen any of Christopher Christie's television advertisements for this year's election for governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  86%    90%    82%    91%    86%    86%
No                   13     10     16      9     13     13
DK/NA                 1      -      2      -      1      1
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Yes                  82%    89%    87%    78%    91%
No                   16     10     13     20      9
DK/NA                 2      1      -      2      -
 
 
19. (If yes q18) Do they make you more likely to vote for Christopher Christie, less likely to vote for Christopher Christie, or don't they make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     SEEN CHRISTIE ADS.....................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
More likely          17%    35%     6%    15%    20%    14%
Less likely          28     10     42     28     19     37
Don't make diff      53     54     52     56     59     48
DK/NA                 1      2      1      1      1      1
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
More likely          13%    18%    15%    15%    22%
Less likely          37     29     30     25     23
Don't make diff      50     52     53     59     55
DK/NA                 -      1      2      -      1
 
 
20. (If yes q18) From what you have seen of Christopher Christie's television ads, are they more informative or more annoying?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     SEEN CHRISTIE ADS.....................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Informative          35%    59%    20%    35%    41%    30%
Annoying             58     34     75     57     52     63
DK/NA                 7      8      5      8      7      7
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Informative          32%    35%    33%    36%    39%
Annoying             60     61     58     62     47
DK/NA                 8      4      8      2     14
 
 
21. Some people say that Christopher Daggett has no chance of winning the election for governor because he is a third-party candidate. Do you agree or disagree?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Agree                68%    75%    62%    71%    76%    61%
Disagree             27     21     30     28     23     32
DK/NA                 4      4      8      1      2      7
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Agree                63%    64%    79%    65%    75%
Disagree             29     30     20     31     24
DK/NA                 8      6      1      4      2
 
TREND: Some people say that Christopher Daggett has no chance of winning the election for governor because he is a third-party candidate. Do you agree or disagree?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 28  Oct 14
                     2009    2009
 
Agree                68      77
Disagree             27      19
DK/NA                 4       3