October 12, 2011 - New Jersey Women Warming To Gov. Christie, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Agree 8-1 With Gov's Decision Not To Run

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New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie would have won, Garden State voters say, but they back his decision not to run for president 8-1. They seem glad to be stuck with him and give him a 58 - 38 percent job approval rating, his best score ever, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. A big swing from women lifts him from a 47 - 46 percent score August 17.

Women approve of Gov. Christie 51 - 44 percent, a 25-point swing from a negative 37 - 55 percent in the August 17 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Men approve 65 - 32 percent, compared to 58 - 36 percent in August. Approval is 88 - 11 percent among Republicans and 65 - 30 percent among independent voters, while Democrats disapprove 67 - 29 percent.

New Jersey voters say 84 - 10 percent that Christie made the "right decision" not to run for president with strong agreement among every group and in every region.

But 66 percent of voters, including 76 percent of Republicans, say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that Christie would have won the Republican nomination.

And 56 percent of voters, including 29 percent of Democrats, say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that Christie would have defeated President Barack Obama in 2012.

The "Christie-for-President" talk was good for New Jersey, voters say 60 - 24 percent, including 42 - 36 percent among Democrats. And the governor's out-of-state political travels don't affect how they think about him, 62 percent say.

"Overwhelmingly, his New Jersey neighbors thought Gov. Christopher Christie did the right thing in walking away from the presidential race - even though most voters think he could have won both the nomination and the White House," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"They think the governor's brief run as Republican flavor-of-the-week was good for New Jersey, and most aren't bothered by his out-of-state travels," Carroll added. "Trenton won't be the end of the political line for Gov. Christie, the neighbors predict 73 - 22 percent.

"And there's nothing like some national attention to get the folks back home to appreciate you a little more. We don't know if it's cause and effect, but Christie's approval rating, especially among women, is way up."

New Jersey voters like Christie as a person 59 - 26 percent, up from 50 - 35 percent in August. Women like him 53 - 29 percent and men like him 65 - 24 percent.

Jokes about Christie being overweight are in bad taste, voters say 71 - 20 percent, and voters agree with the governor 72 - 24 percent, including 63 - 32 percent among Democrats, that political commentators who raise his weight as a political issue are ignorant.

New Jersey voters also agree with Christie 74 - 19 percent, including 65 - 29 percent among Republicans, that he doesn't have the personality to be vice president.

"Christie says he doesn't have the personality to be VP, and New Jersey voters agree. But a fair number, 45 percent, say he could be tapped to be the GOP running mate," Carroll said.

New Jersey voters approve 32 - 24 percent of Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, with 44 percent undecided. She is qualified to take over as governor, voters say 34 - 29 percent, with 37 percent undecided.

"It's a moot point, at least for now, but the question was out there: How would Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno measure up as governor? Okay, said a third; not okay, said another third; don't know, said another third," Carroll said.

From October 5 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,186 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.


10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Christie is handling his job as Governor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              58%    88%    29%    65%    65%    51%
Disapprove           38     11     67     30     32     44
DK/NA                 4      2      4      5      3      6
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Approve              49%    56%    55%    55%    71%
Disapprove           46     40     40     42     24
DK/NA                 4      4      5      4      5
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Christie is handling his job as Governor? (*Low approve also 44% Jun 2010)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Oct 12  Aug 17  Jun 21  Apr 20  Feb 09  Oct 12  Jun 21
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011*
 
Approve              58      47      44      47      52      58      44
Disapprove           38      46      47      46      40      38      47
DK/NA                 4       7      10       7       8       4      10
 
 
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Stephen Sweeney is handling his job as State Senate President?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              23%    21%    26%    24%    24%    22%
Disapprove           29     25     30     31     33     25
DK/NA                48     54     44     45     43     53
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Approve              18%    26%    13%    33%    24%
Disapprove           28     27     30     31     29
DK/NA                54     48     56     37     47
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sheila Oliver is handling her job as Assembly Speaker?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              21%    14%    29%    20%    20%    23%
Disapprove           23     24     20     28     27     20
DK/NA                55     62     51     52     54     57
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Approve              27%    22%    14%    20%    21%
Disapprove           22     25     28     17     23
DK/NA                51     52     58     62     56
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sheila Oliver is handling her job as Assembly Speaker? (*Low also 19% Aug 2010)
                                                             APPROVAL......
                                                             High    Low
                     Oct 12  Aug 17  Jun 21  Apr 20  Feb 09  Jun 21  Nov 09
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2010*
 
Approve              21      21      24      22      22      24      19
Disapprove           23      25      22      21      19      22      22
DK/NA                55      54      55      57      59      55      59
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state assembly is handling its job?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              29%    37%    28%    27%    30%    28%
Disapprove           49     41     50     55     54     45
DK/NA                22     22     21     18     16     27
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Approve              26%    28%    25%    31%    35%
Disapprove           52     52     52     48     42
DK/NA                22     19     24     21     23
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state assembly is handling its job? (*Low also 25% Dec 2010)
                                                             APPROVAL......
                                                             High    Low
                     Oct 12  Aug 17  Jun 21  Apr 20  Feb 09  Feb 09  Aug 17
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011*
 
Approve              29      25      27      26      32      32      25
Disapprove           49      55      51      53      45      45      55
DK/NA                22      20      22      22      22      22      20
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state senate is handling its job?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              29%    35%    27%    28%    31%    28%
Disapprove           53     46     57     56     57     49
DK/NA                18     20     16     16     12     23
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Approve              28%    30%    26%    34%    28%
Disapprove           52     55     58     49     51
DK/NA                20     16     16     17     21
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state senate is handling its job?
                                                             APPROVAL......
                                                             High    Low
                     Oct 12  Aug 17  Jun 21  Apr 20  Feb 09  Feb 09  Aug 17  
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    
                                                                             
Approve              29      27      31      30      34      34      27      
Disapprove           53      57      52      55      46      46      57      
DK/NA                18      16      17      15      20      20      16      
 
 
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kim Guadagno is handling her job as Lieutenant Governor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              32%    46%    21%    37%    35%    30%
Disapprove           24     14     36     20     23     25
DK/NA                44     40     43     43     43     45
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Approve              19%    33%    27%    33%    45%
Disapprove           31     25     20     23     20
DK/NA                50     42     53     44     34
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kim Guadagno is handling her job as Lieutenant Governor?
                     Oct 12  Nov 09
                     2011    2010
 
Approve              32      31
Disapprove           24      18
DK/NA                44      50
 
 
19. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Very satisfied        6%    13%     1%     7%     8%     6%
Smwht satisfied      38     55     22     41     41     35
Smwht dissatisfied   28     19     35     29     24     33
Very dissatisfied    26     13     40     23     27     26
DK/NA                 1      -      1      -      1      1
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Very satisfied        4%     5%     6%     7%    10%
Smwht satisfied      29     43     37     35     42
Smwht dissatisfied   31     28     29     28     25
Very dissatisfied    33     23     29     29     22
DK/NA                 3      -      -      -      1
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*High also 71% Feb 1999)
                                                             VERY+SMWHT SAT
                                                             High    Low
                     Oct 12  Aug 17  Jun 21  Apr 20  Feb 09  Dec 26  Jun 17
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2000*   2010
 
Very satisfied        6       3       3       2       2      10       2
Smwht satisfied      38      31      31      31      34      61      22
Smwht dissatisfied   28      35      34      34      37      21      36
Very dissatisfied    26      31      31      32      26       7      39
DK/NA                 1       -       1       1       -       1       1
 
 
23. Which party would you like to see control the New Jersey State Legislature after the elections in November, the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Democratic Party     45%     4%    90%    35%    39%    50%
Republican Party     42     91      6     44     49     36
DK/NA                13      5      4     21     12     14
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Democratic Party     57%    48%    43%    46%    31%
Republican Party     27     40     45     40     55
DK/NA                16     12     13     14     14
 
TREND: Which party would you like to see control the New Jersey State Legislature after the elections in November, the Democratic Party or the Republican Party? (Additional data available on request through April 2003)
                     Oct 12  Aug 17  Jun 21  Apr 20  Feb 09  Jun 15  Sep 24
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2005    2003
 
Democratic Party     45      48      44      47      43      48      48
Republican Party     42      40      42      39      41      39      37
DK/NA                13      12      14      14      16      13      14
 
 
24. Regardless of how you feel about Christopher Christie's policies, would you say you like or don't like Christopher Christie as a person?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Like                 59%    86%    36%    65%    65%    53%
Don't Like           26      8     45     23     24     29
DK/NA                14      7     18     12     11     18
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Like                 50%    55%    58%    60%    73%
Don't Like           33     29     26     27     18
DK/NA                17     16     16     13     10
 
TREND: Regardless of how you feel about Christopher Christie's policies, would you say you like or don't like Christopher Christie as a person?
                     Oct 12  Aug 17  Jun 21
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Like                 59      50      49
Don't Like           26      35      33
DK/NA                14      16      19
 
 
25. And regardless of how you feel about Christopher Christie as a person, would you say you like or don't like most of Christopher Christie's policies?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Like                 54%    87%    20%    64%    63%    46%
Don't Like           42     10     75     33     34     49
DK/NA                 4      3      5      3      3      5
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Like                 44%    52%    57%    52%    65%
Don't Like           50     45     40     42     32
DK/NA                 6      3      4      6      3
 
TREND: And regardless of how you feel about Christopher Christie as a person, would you say you like or don't like most of Christopher Christie's policies?
                     Oct 12  Aug 17  Jun 21
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Like                 54      48      45
Don't Like           42      47      49
DK/NA                 4       5       6
 
 
26. Governor Christie says that he is not going to run for President in 2012. Do you think he made the right decision or the wrong decision?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Right decision       84%    84%    86%    84%    79%    89%
Wrong decision       10     13      7     10     13      6
DK/NA                 6      3      7      6      7      4
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Right decision       83%    87%    85%    82%    84%
Wrong decision        7      9     10     12     10
DK/NA                10      4      5      5      6
 
 
27. Does Christie's decision not to run for President make you think more favorably of Christie, less favorably of Christie or doesn't it make a difference?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
More favorably       39%    53%    25%    44%    40%    38%
Less favorably        1      2      1      1      1      1
Doesn't make a diff  58     44     72     55     57     59
DK/NA                 1      1      2      1      1      2
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
More favorably       30%    40%    41%    37%    44%
Less favorably        -      1      1      4      -
Doesn't make a diff  66     58     57     57     53
DK/NA                 4      -      -      2      2
 
 
28. If Christie ran for President, how likely do you think it is that he would have won the Republican nomination - Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Very likely          28%    33%    19%    32%    35%    21%
Smwht likely         38     43     37     39     34     42
Not too likely       16     13     18     16     14     18
Not likely at all    15      8     23     10     15     14
DK/NA                 3      3      4      2      2      5
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Very likely          20%    25%    30%    30%    34%
Smwht likely         37     41     40     37     33
Not too likely       17     15     18     14     18
Not likely at all    20     16     11     16     10
DK/NA                 6      4      -      2      4
 
 
29. If Christie won the Republican nomination for President, how likely do you think it is that Christie would have defeated President Obama in the general election for President - Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Very likely          26%    44%     9%    31%    35%    18%
Smwht likely         30     35     20     38     27     33
Not too likely       20     11     33     15     18     23
Not likely at all    20      7     34     15     18     22
DK/NA                 3      2      3      2      2      5
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Very likely          18%    26%    23%    25%    36%
Smwht likely         26     28     35     29     33
Not too likely       24     23     23     15     16
Not likely at all    26     20     18     27     12
DK/NA                 6      3      1      5      2
 
 
30. Do you think the Christie-for-President talk was good or bad for New Jersey?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Good                 60%    74%    42%    68%    63%    57%
Bad                  24     13     36     19     23     26
DK/NA                16     12     22     12     14     18
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Good                 53%    60%    57%    54%    72%
Bad                  27     27     28     26     12
DK/NA                20     13     15     19     16
 
 
31. Did the Christie-for-President talk make you think more favorably of Christie, less favorably of Christie, or didn't it make a difference?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
More favorably       17%    30%     9%    18%    22%    13%
Less favorably       11      5     18      9     10     13
Didn't make a diff   69     63     70     72     67     72
DK/NA                 2      1      3      1      2      2
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
More favorably       14%    19%    19%    11%    22%
Less favorably       14     12      9     12      9
Didn't make a diff   68     67     72     77     67
DK/NA                 4      2      1      -      2
 
 
32. As you may know, Christie has traveled to other states to campaign for Republican candidates. Does this make you think more favorably of Christie, less favorably of Christie, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
More favorably       15%    32%     7%    14%    19%    12%
Less favorably       22      6     33     22     23     20
Doesn't make a diff  62     61     60     64     57     68
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      1      -
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
More favorably       15%    14%    18%    13%    17%
Less favorably       27     19     22     27     16
Doesn't make a diff  57     66     60     60     66
DK/NA                 2      1      -      -      1
 
 
33. Do you think the jokes about Christie being overweight are in bad taste or are they funny?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Bad taste            71%    74%    71%    70%    64%    79%
Funny                20     19     20     23     27     13
DK/NA                 8      8      9      7      9      8
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Bad taste            66%    70%    72%    77%    73%
Funny                21     21     22     16     22
DK/NA                14      9      7      7      5
 
 
34. Christie says that political commentators who raise his weight as a political issue are ignorant. Do you agree or disagree with Christie?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Agree                72%    83%    63%    73%    70%    74%
Disagree             24     15     32     23     26     22
DK/NA                 4      2      5      4      4      4
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Agree                61%    72%    73%    73%    79%
Disagree             33     25     25     23     16
DK/NA                 6      3      2      4      6
 
 
35. Do you think that Christie has a political future beyond being Governor or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes, has future      73%    87%    56%    79%    77%    70%
No, does not         22      9     38     16     19     24
DK/NA                 5      4      6      5      4      6
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Yes, has future      76%    73%    72%    70%    74%
No, does not         19     24     22     23     20
DK/NA                 5      3      6      7      6
 
 
36. How likely do you think it is that Christopher Christie will be selected by the Republican Presidential nominee to be their Vice-Presidential running mate - Very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Very likely          10%    13%     7%    11%    10%    10%
Somewhat likely      35     36     33     38     34     35
Not very likely      28     30     28     26     28     27
Not likely at all    24     17     29     23     25     24
DK/NA                 3      4      2      2      3      3
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Very likely          12%     9%    11%    12%    10%
Somewhat likely      38     37     28     37     33
Not very likely      23     28     35     24     28
Not likely at all    25     24     25     24     24
DK/NA                 2      3      1      4      5
 
 
TREND: How likely do you think it is that Christopher Christie will be selected by the Republican Presidential nominee to be their Vice-Presidential running mate - Very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all?
                     Oct 12  Jun 21
                     2011    2011
 
Very likely          10      10
Somewhat likely      35      33
Not very likely      28      28
Not likely at all    24      24
DK/NA                 3       5
 
 
37. Christie says that he doesn't have the right kind of personality to be Vice President. Do you agree or disagree with Christie?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Agree                74%    65%    81%    74%    72%    75%
Disagree             19     29     13     19     22     17
DK/NA                 7      6      7      6      7      8
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Agree                68%    73%    77%    73%    77%
Disagree             20     21     20     20     15
DK/NA                12      6      3      7      8
 
 
38. As you may know, the Lieutenant Governor, Kim Guadagno, would become governor if Governor Christie does not complete his term. Based on what you know about Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno, do you think she is qualified to serve as Governor if it becomes necessary, or don't you think so?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes, Qualified       34%    47%    22%    38%    39%    30%
No, Not qualified    29     23     38     26     29     29
DK/NA                37     29     40     36     32     42
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Yes, Qualified       24%    33%    32%    34%    46%
No, Not qualified    27     35     27     25     25
DK/NA                49     32     41     41     29
 

Demographic Summary