October 16, 2012 - Women Lift Obama To 8-Point Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Menendez Leaves Kyrillos In The Dust In Senate Race

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With three weeks to go until Election Day, President Barack Obama leads Gov. Mitt Romney 51 - 43 percent among New Jersey likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 51 - 44 percent Obama lead in a September 6 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In today's results, women back the president 55 - 39 percent, while men are divided with 48 percent for the Democrat and 47 percent for the Republican challenger. Independent voters back Romney 51 - 42 percent.

A total of 8 percent of likely voters, including 9 percent of Obama backers and 7 percent of Romney supporters, say they might change their mind in the next three weeks.

New Jersey voters approve 51 - 45 percent of the job the president is doing and give him a 54 - 40 percent favorability rating.

Romney gets a slightly negative 43 - 46 percent favorability score.

"It's still a blue state and the color didn't fade after the first presidential debate," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "President Barack Obama's lead among likely voters is still in the single digits. Not overwhelming, but it's enough and doesn't seem to be changing.

"And New Jerseyans say their minds are made up. Nine tenths of both Obama and Romney supporters say they won't switch in the next 21 days.

"On the favorable-unfavorable scale, Romney measures slightly negative, while Obama has a double-digit plus."

U.S. Senate Race

New Jersey Democratic incumbent Sen. Robert Menendez tops State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos, still unknown to most voters, 55 - 37 percent. A total of 16 percent of likely voters, including 18 percent of Menendez supporters and 13 percent of Kyrillos backers, say they might change their mind by Nov. 6.

This compares to a 50 - 40 percent Menendez lead in a September 6 Quinnipiac University poll.

In today's result, Menendez leads 52 - 42 percent among men and 58 - 33 percent among women. Independent voters go Democratic 49 - 39 percent.

New Jersey likely voters approve 53 - 28 percent of the job the incumbent is doing and give him a 47 - 26 percent favorability rating, with 25 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

For Kyrillos, 58 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

"Who is Joe Kyrillos? State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos has a bit of an improvement in name recognition since his debates with Sen. Robert Menendez, but more than half of New Jerseyans still don't know him well enough to decide if they like him or dislike him," Carroll said.

"Normally, a challenger, even an unknown, can gain a little ground on the incumbent in the final weeks of a campaign. That doesn't seem to be happening for Kyrillos."

From October 10 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,319 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                51%     8%    93%    42%    48%    55%    43%    93%
Romney               43     90      3     51     47     39     52      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      -      1      1      -
DK/NA                 5      2      4      6      5      6      5      4
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Obama                50%    38%    42%    33%    38%    47%    21%    40%
Romney               46     56     54     62     57     48     70     55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      1      -      1
DK/NA                 3      6      5      4      4      5      8      4
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Obama                56%    48%    65%    53%    53%    49%    58%    54%    47%
Romney               39     45     23     41     43     48     36     42     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      -      1      1      -      1
DK/NA                 4      6     11      5      4      2      5      4      5
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 16  Sep 06
                     2012    2012
 
Obama                51      51
Romney               43      44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1
DK/NA                 5       4
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1
                     Tot    Obama  Romney
 
Mind made up         92%    90%    93%
Might change          8      9      7
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN
                     Oct 16  Sep 06
                     2012    2012
 
Mind made up         92      89
Might change          8      10
DK/NA                 -       1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            43%    87%     6%    48%    46%    40%    50%     6%
Unfavorable          46      7     83     38     44     48     40     85
Hvn't hrd enough      9      5      9     11      9      9      7      7
REFUSED               2      1      2      2      2      3      2      1
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            47%    52%    53%    60%    54%    48%    64%    54%
Unfavorable          46     37     34     32     38     43     18     37
Hvn't hrd enough      5      9      9      7      8      7     12      7
REFUSED               2      2      5      1      1      3      6      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            42%    43%    23%    42%    42%    49%    35%    43%    47%
Unfavorable          50     43     52     47     51     45     50     48     43
Hvn't hrd enough      5     11     19      9      6      5     14      8      7
REFUSED               2      2      6      2      1      2      1      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 16  Sep 06
                     2012    2012
 
Favorable            43      43
Unfavorable          46      41
Hvn't hrd enough      9      13
REFUSED               2       3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            54%    12%    92%    46%    50%    57%    45%    96%
Unfavorable          40     82      5     48     44     37     49      3
Hvn't hrd enough      3      2      3      2      3      2      3      1
REFUSED               3      3      1      3      3      4      3      -
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            53%    40%    46%    35%    41%    49%    24%    43%
Unfavorable          43     53     49     60     54     45     64     53
Hvn't hrd enough      1      4      -      3      3      3      -      3
REFUSED               3      4      5      3      2      4     12      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            59%    51%    68%    54%    55%    52%    62%    55%    49%
Unfavorable          37     42     20     39     41     44     31     40     46
Hvn't hrd enough      1      4      8      3      1      1      7      2      1
REFUSED               3      4      3      4      3      3      -      3      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 16  Sep 06
                     2012    2012
 
Favorable            54      52
Unfavorable          40      44
Hvn't hrd enough      3       1
REFUSED               3       2
 
 
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Joe Kyrillos the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Menendez or Kyrillos? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Menendez             55%     9%    94%    49%    52%    58%    48%    90%
Kyrillos             37     85      3     39     42     33     44      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      6      3     12      6      9      8      4
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Menendez             52%    45%    44%    41%    44%    51%    29%    46%
Kyrillos             40     47     47     52     50     40     59     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      7      8      7      6     10     12      7
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Menendez             56%    54%    69%    56%    57%    52%    62%    54%    53%
Kyrillos             35     39     19     40     36     43     28     40     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 9      7     12      5      7      5     10      6      7
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Joe Kyrillos the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Menendez or Kyrillos? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 16  Sep 06
                     2012    2012
 
Menendez             55      50
Kyrillos             37      40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       -
DK/NA                 8      10
 
 
4a. (If Senate candidate chosen q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q4...
                     Tot  Menendez Kyrillos
 
Mind made up         83%    81%    86%
Might change         16     18     13
DK/NA                 1      1      -
 
TREND: (If Senate candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN
                     Oct 16  Sep 06
                     2012    2012
 
Mind made up         83      80
Might change         16      20
DK/NA                 1       -
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            47%    12%    78%    42%    45%    50%    42%    72%
Unfavorable          26     56      3     27     31     21     30      5
Hvn't hrd enough     25     29     18     30     23     27     26     23
REFUSED               2      2      -      2      1      2      2      -
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            47%    39%    37%    38%    41%    44%    24%    41%
Unfavorable          30     30     33     37     38     24     46     32
Hvn't hrd enough     22     28     28     24     21     30     26     25
REFUSED               1      3      3      2      1      3      5      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            52%    45%    51%    49%    47%    49%    40%    49%    49%
Unfavorable          25     26     14     25     27     28     15     24     33
Hvn't hrd enough     22     27     31     25     25     21     44     26     16
REFUSED               1      2      4      1      1      1      2      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 16  Sep 06
                     2012    2012
 
Favorable            47      42
Unfavorable          26      28
Hvn't hrd enough     25      28
REFUSED               2       1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Joe Kyrillos favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            28%    59%     7%    28%    33%    24%    32%    10%
Unfavorable          13      1     24     10     15     11     11     20
Hvn't hrd enough     58     40     68     61     52     63     56     69
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      -      1      1      1
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            30%    34%    32%    40%    38%    27%    41%    36%
Unfavorable          14      9     10      9     12     10      4     11
Hvn't hrd enough     56     56     55     51     50     61     50     53
REFUSED               1      1      3      -      1      1      5      -
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            26%    30%    11%    37%    26%    33%    22%    28%    32%
Unfavorable          16     11     18      7     12     14     10     15     13
Hvn't hrd enough     57     59     68     55     62     52     68     58     52
REFUSED               1      1      3      1      -      -      -      -      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Kyrillos favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 16  Sep 06
                     2012    2012
 
Favorable            28      23
Unfavorable          13      10
Hvn't hrd enough     58      65
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              53%    21%    82%    47%    51%    55%    48%    79%
Disapprove           28     57      4     31     34     22     32      6
DK/NA                19     23     14     22     16     22     20     15
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              51%    46%    39%    44%    46%    50%    26%    46%
Disapprove           31     33     37     38     40     26     53     35
DK/NA                19     21     24     18     15     24     22     19
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              54%    52%    61%    58%    55%    52%    57%    52%    52%
Disapprove           27     28     17     24     27     31     19     27     34
DK/NA                19     19     21     19     18     17     24     21     14
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 16  Sep 06
                     2012    2012
 
Approve              53      49
Disapprove           28      33
DK/NA                19      19
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              51%     7%    91%    42%    46%    55%    42%    92%
Disapprove           45     89      7     53     50     40     53      6
DK/NA                 5      4      2      5      4      5      4      2
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              49%    38%    40%    32%    38%    46%    19%    40%
Disapprove           48     57     54     63     59     49     71     56
DK/NA                 3      5      6      5      3      5     10      4
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              55%    48%    66%    52%    52%    46%    60%    51%    45%
Disapprove           41     47     27     39     45     50     38     44     50
DK/NA                 4      5      7      9      3      3      2      5      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 16  Sep 06
                     2012    2012
 
Approve              51      51
Disapprove           45      46
DK/NA                 5       3
 

Demographic Summary