July 9, 2013 - Booker Tops 50% In NJ Senate Primary, General Election, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Lonegan Dominates GOP Primary
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Newark Mayor Cory Booker tops the magic 50 percent mark in both the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate from New Jersey and the general election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In a Democratic primary, Booker has 52 percent, with 10 percent for U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone, 8 percent for U.S. Rep. Rush Holt and 3 percent for Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver. Another 26 percent are undecided.

This compares to the results of a June 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University poll showing Booker at 53 percent, with 10 percent for Holt and 9 percent for Pallone. The survey was conducted before Oliver announced her candidacy.

In a Republican primary, Steve Lonegan tops Alieta Eck 62 - 5 percent, with 28 percent undecided.

In possible general election matchups:
  • Booker beats Lonegan 53 - 30 percent;
  • Pallone gets 38 percent to Lonegan's 34 percent;
  • Holt gets 37 percent to Lonegan's 36 percent;
  • Lonegan gets 37 percent to Oliver's 35 percent.
"It looks as if the speculation was right: Newark Mayor Cory Booker seems to be a shoo-in for the U.S. Senate," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Political observers wondered why Congressmen Frank Pallone and Rush Holt didn't make a deal for one of them to step out and throw his support to the other," Carroll added. "These results show that probably wouldn't help. Pallone's and Rush's combined total in the Democratic primary still trails Booker's tally almost 3-1.

"Observers also wondered why Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver, like Booker, an Essex County pol, decided to run. She's the weakest of the bunch.

"Steve Lonegan gets the bedrock Republican 30 percent, and not much more, against everyone.

"The Republican race looks even more one-sided than the Democratic primary; Alieta Eck hardly registers.

New Jersey voters have a 56 - 16 percent favorable opinion of Booker, while 27 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion. The "don't know enough" measures for the other contenders are:
  • Pallone - 63 percent;
  • Holt - 68 percent;
  • Oliver - 71 percent;
  • Lonegan - 54 percent;
  • Eck - 91 percent.
"In the favorable-unfavorable measure, only Booker comes close to being a household name. Even Oliver, a power in Trenton, isn't well known and Eck is all but anonymous," Carroll said.

From July 2 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,068 New Jersey voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 400 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points and 330 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Cory Booker, Rush Holt, Frank Pallone, and Sheila Oliver, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Booker               52%    52%    53%
Holt                  8     10      6
Pallone              10     11      8
Oliver                3      1      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      1
DK/NA                26     24     27
 
TREND:(If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Cory Booker, Rush Holt, Frank Pallone, and Sheila Oliver, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     Jul 09  Jun 10
                     2013    2013
 
Booker               52      53
Holt                  8      10
Pallone              10       9
Oliver                3      na
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       4
DK/NA                26      23
 
 
2. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Alieta Eck and Steve Lonegan, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Eck                   5%     5%     5%
Lonegan              62     69     56
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      5      2
DK/NA                28     19     36
 
 
3. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Cory Booker the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Booker               53%    15%    87%    50%    51%    56%    49%    79%
Lonegan              30     74      2     28     32     28     35      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      2      1      1      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      -      2      3      4      2      2      3
DK/NA                13     10      8     18     11     15     12     10
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Booker               60%    49%    51%    57%    56%    63%    55%    49%
Lonegan              29     30     27     32     28     18     29     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      2      -      1      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      2      3      3      4      3      2
DK/NA                 8     16     17      8     12     12     11     14
 
TREND: If the election for United State Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Cory Booker the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 09  Jun 10
                     2013    2013
 
Booker               53      54
Lonegan              30      27
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       2
DK/NA                13      16
 
 
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Frank Pallone the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Pallone              38%     6%    76%    28%    35%    41%    34%    66%
Lonegan              34     80      5     34     39     30     41      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      -      3      4      1      2      6
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      1      3      6      5      3      4      4
DK/NA                21     12     16     28     17     25     19     19
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Pallone              45%    34%    34%    45%    40%    38%    39%    38%
Lonegan              33     35     29     35     36     20     35     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      3      1      3      3      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      5      3      4      7      3      3
DK/NA                16     25     29     16     17     31     19     17
 
TREND: If the election for United State Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Frank Pallone the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 09  Jun 10
                     2013    2013
 
Pallone              38      39
Lonegan              34      29
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       4
DK/NA                21      27
 
 
5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Rush Holt the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Holt                 37%     2%    75%    29%    35%    39%    35%    56%
Lonegan              36     88      2     34     39     33     42      7
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      2      2      4      2      2      8
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      -      4      8      6      3      4      6
DK/NA                20      8     17     27     16     23     17     23
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Holt                 43%    34%    36%    41%    37%    43%    35%    37%
Lonegan              35     36     31     38     38     22     40     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      3      3      3      2      4      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      5      5      4      5      9      4      3
DK/NA                16     22     25     14     18     24     17     19
 
TREND: If the election for United State Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Rush Holt the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 09  Jun 10
                     2013    2013
 
Holt                 37      36
Lonegan              36      31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       3
DK/NA                20      29
 
 
6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Sheila Oliver the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Oliver               35%     2%    72%    26%    32%    38%    30%    60%
Lonegan              37     88      4     37     41     33     43      5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      1      2      5      1      2      7
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      1      4      8      7      2      4      5
DK/NA                21      8     20     27     16     26     20     23
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Oliver               41%    32%    36%    39%    36%    45%    34%    33%
Lonegan              37     36     29     38     39     23     38     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      4      2      2      2      5      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      4      6      4      6      5      3
DK/NA                16     25     27     16     18     24     18     22
 
 
7. Is your opinion of Cory Booker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            56%    42%    68%    57%    56%    55%    55%    60%
Unfavorable          16     30      4     16     19     12     18      7
Hvn't hrd enough     27     25     26     25     23     29     25     31
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      2      3      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Cory Booker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 09  Jun 10  Feb 21  Jan 23  Nov 28  Sep 05
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2012    2012
 
Favorable            56      57      59      54      52      49
Unfavorable          16      14      11      16      13      11
Hvn't hrd enough     27      25      28      29      33      38
REFUSED               2       3       1       2       1       1
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Frank Pallone favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            22%    13%    30%    20%    26%    18%    21%    21%
Unfavorable          13     26      5     14     17     10     15      7
Hvn't hrd enough     63     60     65     64     56     70     63     70
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      -      3      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Frank Pallone favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 09  Jun 10
                     2013    2013
 
Favorable            22      21
Unfavorable          13       9
Hvn't hrd enough     63      68
REFUSED               2       1
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Rush Holt favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            18%    10%    27%    15%    22%    14%    20%    11%
Unfavorable          12     25      4     13     16      9     16      1
Hvn't hrd enough     68     65     67     70     61     74     63     86
REFUSED               2      1      2      2      1      3      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rush Holt favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 09  Jun 10
                     2013    2013
 
Favorable            18      20
Unfavorable          12      11
Hvn't hrd enough     68      67
REFUSED               2       2
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Steve Lonegan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            30%    65%     6%    30%    37%    24%    34%     9%
Unfavorable          14      2     23     14     19     10     15     11
Hvn't hrd enough     54     32     70     53     43     63     49     78
REFUSED               2      1      1      3      1      3      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Steve Lonegan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 09  Jun 10  May 20  Apr 22  Mar 12  Feb 04
                     2013    2013    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Favorable            30      25      19      20      15      15
Unfavorable          14      12      11       7       7       6
Hvn't hrd enough     54      62      68      72      77      78
REFUSED               2       1       2       1       1       1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Sheila Oliver favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            14%     4%    24%    11%    15%    13%    12%    20%
Unfavorable          13     22      3     17     17     10     17      3
Hvn't hrd enough     71     74     72     69     67     74     69     73
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      2      2      2      4
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Alieta Eck favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable             3%     2%     4%     2%     4%     3%     3%     6%
Unfavorable           5      8      2      6      6      3      5      3
Hvn't hrd enough     91     90     94     92     90     92     91     90
REFUSED               1      -      -      1      1      2      1      2
 
 
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              53%     7%    88%    50%    48%    56%    44%    89%
Disapprove           41     86     10     43     46     37     50      4
DK/NA                 6      6      2      8      6      7      6      7
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              54%    52%    56%    50%    54%    65%    53%    47%
Disapprove           42     40     34     44     42     28     43     46
DK/NA                 4      8     10      6      5      6      5      7
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 09  Jun 10  Apr 24  Mar 26  Feb 21  Jun 10  Oct 13
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013    2009    2011
 
Approve              53      53      57      54      57      68      43
Disapprove           41      41      38      42      40      25      52
DK/NA                 6       5       5       4       3       7       5
 
 

Demographic Summary