August 8, 2013 - Christie Crushes Dem In New Jersey Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Don't Know If Running Mates Can Run State
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New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie leads among women, and even more among men, as he rolls over State Sen. Barbara Buono, his Democratic challenger for reelection, 58 - 30 percent according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Voters in strongly Democratic urban areas are divided, with 43 percent for Sen. Buono and 42 percent for Gov. Christie, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. The incumbent has commanding leads in every other area of the state, from 56 - 33 percent in suburban areas to 67 - 21 percent at the Shore.

Buono leads 57 - 30 percent among Democrats, while Christie leads 91 - 4 percent among Republicans and 66 - 22 percent among independent voters. He leads 62 - 27 percent among men and 56 - 34 percent among women.

White voters back Christie 66 - 25 percent while black voters go to Buono 54 - 30 percent. Hispanic voters are divided with 43 percent for Buono and 41 percent for Christie.

"The big election is still the race between Gov. Christopher Christie and State Sen. Barbara Buono and the governor's 2-1 lead remains undented after months of polling," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. Buono is down 3-1 among independent voters and even loses 30 percent of Democratic voters to Christie. There's no point even counting Republicans."

Christie's support for a legislative candidate carries little weight as only 20 percent of voters say Christie's backing would make them more likely to vote for that candidate, with 17 percent saying less likely and 60 percent saying it wouldn't make a difference.

Buono does even worse as 15 percent of voters are less likely to support a Buono-backed candidate, with 11 percent more likely and 70 percent who say it wouldn't make a difference.

"The question is if Gov. Christie has coat-tails and, unless he goes all-out for legislative Republicans, the answer now is no," Carroll said. "Buono looks like she's no help to Democrats."

Only 15 percent of New Jersey voters say Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno would make a good governor, if necessary, while 7 percent say she couldn't fill Christie's shoes and 77 percent say they don't know enough about her to decide.

For Milly Silva, the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor, 90 percent don't know enough to decide if she could step into the top job.

"Electing a lieutenant governor was New Jersey's answer to the succession problem. But it hasn't meant much in terms of recognition," Carroll said. "No one knows Milly Silva, and most people don't even know the incumbent, Kim Guadagno, and she's had the job for four years."

From August 1 - 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,042 New Jersey voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

4. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Barbara Buono the Democrat and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED VOTERS..........................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Buono                30%     4%    57%    22%    27%    34%    25%    54%    43%
Christie             58     91     30     66     62     56     66     30     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      3      3      2      2      2      5
DK/NA                 8      3     10      8      8      7      6     13     11
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Buono                32%    29%    36%    28%    30%    35%    27%    33%    27%
Christie             58     59     52     61     64     51     61     57     61
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      -      -      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      3      3      1      5      3      2      1
DK/NA                 6      9      8      7      5      9      8      6     10
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Buono                43%    33%    26%    29%    21%
Christie             42     56     67     60     67
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      2      2      3      2
DK/NA                 9      9      6      7      8
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Barbara Buono the Democrat and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                             CHRISTIE......
                                                             High    Low
                     Aug 08  Jul 10  Jun 10  Apr 24  Mar 26  Jan 23  Oct 17
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013    2013    2012
 
Buono                30      29      29      26      25      22      33
Christie             58      61      59      58      60      63      49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       1       1       1       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       2       1       1       1       1       1
DK/NA                 8       7       9      13      13      13      17
 
 
5. If Christopher Christie supports a state legislative candidate, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                     REGISTERED VOTERS..........................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
More likely          20%    44%     6%    19%    20%    21%    24%     5%    18%
Less likely          17      5     32     12     17     17     15     27     21
No difference        60     49     59     68     62     58     59     63     57
DK/NA                 2      2      3      2      1      3      2      5      4
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
More likely          20%    21%    19%    21%    22%    19%    19%    17%    28%
Less likely          21     15     19     18     15     20     17     18     14
No difference        58     61     58     60     63     58     63     63     53
DK/NA                 1      3      4      1      -      3      1      1      5
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
More likely          11%    19%    22%    22%    26%
Less likely          22     18     16     18     12
No difference        64     60     61     57     59
DK/NA                 2      2      1      3      3
 
TREND: If Christopher Christie supports a state legislative candidate, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                     Aug 08  Jul 10
                     2013    2013
 
More likely          20      20
Less likely          17      15
No difference        60      63
DK/NA                 2       3
 
 
6. If Barbara Buono supports a state legislative candidate, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                     REGISTERED VOTERS..........................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
More likely          11%     2%    22%     6%    10%    11%     8%    20%    12%
Less likely          15     33      2     15     17     13     17      5     13
No difference        70     61     71     75     69     71     71     70     67
DK/NA                 4      4      4      5      3      5      3      5      8
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
More likely          11%    10%    14%     8%    10%     6%     9%    13%    11%
Less likely          15     15     15     15     16     15     12     14     21
No difference        71     69     65     76     72     76     76     70     62
DK/NA                 3      5      6      1      2      3      3      3      7
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
More likely          11%    11%     9%    13%     8%
Less likely           9     14     17     15     19
No difference        78     69     72     68     68
DK/NA                 2      6      3      4      5
 
TREND: If Barbara Buono supports a state legislative candidate, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                     Aug 08  Jul 10
                     2013    2013
 
More likely          11       8
Less likely          15      18
No difference        70      70
DK/NA                 4       3
 
 
7. (INTRO Q7-8: As you may know, the Lieutenant Governor becomes Governor if the Governor does not complete his or her term.) Do you think Kim Guadagno would make a good governor if it becomes necessary, or not, or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     REGISTERED VOTERS..........................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Good governor    15%    25%    10%    14%    18%    12%    17%     8%    17%
No                    7      2     11      6      9      5      7      6      4
Hvn't hrd enough     77     72     78     78     71     82     75     85     77
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      1      1      1      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Yes/Good governor    16%    14%    11%    19%    17%    17%    11%    16%    15%
No                   10      4      4      7      9      4      7      7      7
Hvn't hrd enough     72     80     83     73     73     79     80     75     77
REFUSED               2      1      1      1      1      -      2      1      1
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Yes/Good governor    11%    13%    16%    14%    21%
No                    7      8      8      4      6
Hvn't hrd enough     81     77     76     82     71
REFUSED               1      2      1      1      2
 
 
8. Do you think Milly Silva would make a good governor if it becomes necessary, or not, or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     REGISTERED VOTERS..........................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Good governor     4%     2%     6%     4%     6%     3%     4%     4%     7%
No                    5      8      2      8      7      4      6      4      4
Hvn't hrd enough     90     90     92     88     87     92     90     91     87
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      -      -      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Yes/Good governor     3%     5%     6%     5%     3%     6%     3%     4%     5%
No                    7      4      3      5      8      3      5      5      8
Hvn't hrd enough     89     90     91     90     89     91     92     90     86
REFUSED               1      1      -      -      1      -      -      1      2
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Yes/Good governor     8%     5%     2%     4%     2%
No                    6      5      7      3      7
Hvn't hrd enough     86     89     90     92     91
REFUSED               -      1      -      1      -
 
 

Demographic Summary