September 24, 2013 - Lonegan Closing In On Booker In New Jersey Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Women Give Dem Margin And Men Are Divided
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Newark Mayor Cory Booker, the Democrat, leads former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, the Republican 53 - 41 percent among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race in New Jersey, closer than expected given Booker's wide lead among registered voters last month, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This is the first survey of likely voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University in the campaign for the special U.S. Senate election October 16 and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

Booker's margin is based on women, who back him 60 - 34 percent. Men are divided with 48 percent for Lonegan and 46 percent for Booker.

Independent voters are divided with 47 percent for Booker and 44 percent for Lonegan. Booker leads 91 - 4 percent among Democrats, while Republicans go to Lonegan 86 - 11 percent.

In this likely voter survey, 5 percent remain undecided and another 5 percent of those who name a candidate say there is a "good chance" they will change their mind in the next three weeks.

"Maybe that 'show horse vs. work horse' charge from Republican Steve Lonegan is having an impact," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "While we can't make a direct comparison between registered voters and likely voters, Mayor Cory Booker did have a 54 - 29 percent registered voter lead over Lonegan in Quinnipiac University's August 7 pre-primary survey."

"Today's results could be driven by the bad news about Newark crime, plus the publicity about Booker's business ventures," Carroll added.

"But if it's not a blow-out, it still looks like a comfortable lead for Booker. New Jersey is a blue state and it hasn't elected a Republican senator - let alone a conservative one - since Sen. Clifford Case in 1972."

New Jersey likely voters give Booker a 53 - 30 percent favorability rating. Lonegan gets a 35 - 22 percent favorability, but 43 percent of voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

Looking at qualities, likely voters say:
  • 46 - 36 percent that Booker understands their problems better than Lonegan;
  • 40 - 32 percent that Booker is more honest and trustworthy;
  • 44 - 36 percent that Booker has the best experience to be a U.S. Senator.
Lonegan is too conservative, 33 percent of voters say, while 3 percent say he is too liberal and 39 percent say he is "about right."

Booker is too liberal, 35 percent of voters say, while 2 percent say he is too conservative and 49 percent say he is "about right."

From September 19 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 948 New Jersey likely voters in the special U.S. Senate election, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Cory Booker the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Booker or Lonegan? (Table includes leaners) (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error)
                     LIKELY SENATE RACE VOTERS...........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk*
 
Booker               53%    11%    91%    47%    46%    60%    46%    84%
Lonegan              41     86      4     44     48     34     49      9
SOMEONE ELSE (VOL)    1      -      -      3      2      1      1      -
DK/NA                 5      3      5      6      5      5      4      7
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (Candidate not chosen)? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY SENATE RACE VOTERS...
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot   Booker  Lonegan
 
Def vote for cand    86%    85%    88%
Unlikely to change    6      6      7
Good chance change    5      6      3
DK/NA                 2      3      1
 
 
1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice q1), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY SENATE RACE VOTERS...
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot   Booker  Lonegan
 
Very enthusiastic    39%    39%    38%
Somewht enthusiastic 50     50     51
Not so enthusiastic   6      6      6
Not enthus at all     4      5      3
DK/NA                 1      1      2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Cory Booker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error)
                     LIKELY SENATE RACE VOTERS...........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk*
 
Favorable            53%    27%    77%    49%    48%    58%    50%    69%
Unfavorable          30     51      7     36     37     24     34     14
Hvn't hrd enough     16     21     14     13     15     17     14     16
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      2      1      1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Steve Lonegan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error)
                     LIKELY SENATE RACE VOTERS...........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk*
 
Favorable            35%    67%     7%    38%    43%    27%    41%     6%
Unfavorable          22      6     33     23     23     21     23     22
Hvn't hrd enough     43     26     59     39     33     51     36     72
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      1      1      1      -
 
 
14. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think better understands the problems of people like you, Cory Booker or Steve Lonegan?
                     LIKELY SENATE RACE VOTERS.............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Booker               46%    11%    79%    41%    41%    51%
Lonegan              36     71      6     40     43     30   
DK/NA                17     18     14     20     16     19   
 
 
15. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think is more honest and trustworthy, Cory Booker or Steve Lonegan?
                     LIKELY SENATE RACE VOTERS.............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Booker               40%    11%    69%    35%    39%    41%
Lonegan              32     64      6     33     38     26  
DK/NA                28     25     25     32     24     33  
 
 
16. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think has the best experience to be a United States Senator, Cory Booker or Steve Lonegan?
                     LIKELY SENATE RACE VOTERS.............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Booker               44%    14%    69%    42%    41%    47%
Lonegan              36     67     10     41     44     29  
DK/NA                19     19     22     17     15     23  
 
 
17. Do you think Steve Lonegan is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     LIKELY SENATE RACE VOTERS.............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Liberal               3%     1%     4%     4%     3%     3%
Conservative         33     15     49     33     36     31  
About right          39     70     13     41     43     35  
DK/NA                24     14     33     21     18     31  
 
 
18. Do you think Cory Booker is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     LIKELY SENATE RACE VOTERS.............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Liberal              35%    63%     8%    39%    41%    29%
Conservative          2      2      2      2      3      2  
About right          49     19     77     46     45     53  
DK/NA                14     16     13     13     11     16  
 

Demographic Summary