October 9, 2013 - Big Gender Gap, But Booker Up 12 Points In NJ Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Stripper-Tweet Not An Issue, Voters Say 4-1
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A 31-point lead among women overcomes his deficit among men to give Newark Mayor Cory Booker, the Democrat, a 53 - 41 percent likely voter lead over former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, the Republican, in the U.S. Senate race in New Jersey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This is unchanged from results of a September 24 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In today's results, independent voters tip to Lonegan 50 - 44 percent. Booker leads among Democrats 92 - 4 percent while Lonegan takes Republicans 87 - 10 percent.

There is a huge gender gap as women back Booker 62 - 31 percent, while men back Lonegan 51 - 44 percent. White voters are divided with 49 percent for Lonegan and 46 percent for Booker. Among black voters, 93 percent go Democratic with no blacks voting for Lonegan.

One week before the special election for U.S. Senate, 5 percent of New Jersey likely voters remain undecided and 6 percent who name a candidate say there is a "good chance" they will change their mind in the next seven days.

"It's still not the predicted blow-out, but with a week to go, Newark Mayor Cory Booker hangs on to a nice, if not exactly comfortable, double-digit lead," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"And despite the Stripper-Twitter Affair, Booker has a 2-1 lead among women, while men back Lonegan."

New Jersey likely voters support Obamacare, the Affordable Care Act, 51 - 44 percent and oppose 77 - 17 percent shutting down the federal government to stop implementation of the health care law. Opposition to the shutdown is 55 - 36 percent among Republicans, 97 - 1 among Democrats and 73 - 20 percent among independent voters.

But 76 percent of voters say they have not been inconvenienced by the shutdown.

New Jersey likely voters say 76 - 18 percent that Booker's tweets with a stripper is not a legitimate issue in the Senate campaign. There is almost no gender gap as men say 79 - 17 percent it's not an issue and women agree 73 - 18 percent.

Booker gets a 57 - 32 percent favorability rating, compared to Lonegan's 36 - 33 percent favorability, with 28 percent who don't know enough about Lonegan to form an opinion.

Booker's views on issues are mainstream, 66 percent of voters say, while 23 percent say they are extreme. Lonegan's views are mainstream, 43 percent say, while 36 percent say they are extreme.

Despite Lonegan's "Show Horse/Work Horse" attack, New Jersey likely voters say 57 - 31 percent that Booker "would be good at getting things done for New Jersey in the U.S. Senate." Independent voters agree 52 - 38 percent.

Voters are divided on whether Lonegan would get things done in the Senate, as 39 percent say yes and 42 percent say no. Independent voters are positive 45 - 36 percent.

"Can a U.S. Senate candidate exchange Twitter messages with a stripper? Apparently so, at least in New Jersey," Carroll said. "Three quarters of voters think it's a non-issue. Ditto for the 'Show Horse/Work Horse' charge; more than half think Booker would be able to get things done in the Senate.

"Money talks, at least on TV. Booker's on a lot and Lonegan only a little and almost a third of New Jerseyans haven't seen enough of Lonegan to make an up-or-down judgment."

From October 5 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 899 New Jersey likely voters in the special U.S. Senate election, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Cory Booker the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Booker or Lonegan? (Table includes leaners) (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk*
 
Booker               53%    10%    92%    44%    44%    62%    46%    93%
Lonegan              41     87      4     50     51     31     49      -
SOMEONE ELSE (VOL)    1      -      -      2      2      -      -      4
DK/NA                 5      2      4      5      4      6      5      3
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Cory Booker the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Booker or Lonegan? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 09  Sep 24
                     2013    2013
 
Booker               53      53
Lonegan              41      41
SOMEONE ELSE (VOL)    1       1
DK/NA                 5       5
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (Candidate not chosen)? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot   Booker  Lonegan
 
Def vote for cand    86%    85%    88%
Unlikely to change    7      7      7
Good chance change    6      8      3
DK/NA                 2      1      2
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (Candidate not chosen)? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 09  Sep 24
                     2013    2013
 
Def vote for cand    86      86
Unlikely to change    7       6
Good chance change    6       5
DK/NA                 2       2
 
 
1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot   Booker  Lonegan
 
Very enthusiastic    43%    43%    42%
Somewht enthusiastic 46     46     46
Not so enthusiastic   7      6      8
Not enthus at all     3      3      4
DK/NA                 1      1      -
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 09  Sep 24
                     2013    2013
 
Very enthusiastic    43      39
Somewht enthusiastic 46      50
Not so enthusiastic   7       6
Not enthus at all     3       4
DK/NA                 1       1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Cory Booker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            57%    23%    85%    50%    49%    65%
Unfavorable          32     63      7     39     41     23
Hvn't hrd enough      9     13      7      8      9      9
REFUSED               2      1      1      3      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Cory Booker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 09  Sep 24
                     2013    2013
 
Favorable            57      53
Unfavorable          32      30
Hvn't hrd enough      9      16
REFUSED               2       1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Steve Lonegan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            36%    74%     5%    43%    44%    28%
Unfavorable          33      9     54     30     29     36
Hvn't hrd enough     28     17     40     23     25     32
REFUSED               3      -      2      4      1      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Steve Lonegan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 09  Sep 24
                     2013    2013
 
Favorable            36      35
Unfavorable          33      22
Hvn't hrd enough     28      43
REFUSED               3       1
 
 
7. Would you say that Cory Booker's views on the issues are in the mainstream or are they extreme?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Mainstream           66%    40%    87%    66%    61%    71%
Extreme              23     44      8     25     30     17
DK/NA                11     17      5      9      9     12
 
 
8. Would you say that Steve Lonegan's views on the issues are in the mainstream or are they extreme?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Mainstream           43%    71%    24%    44%    46%    39%
Extreme              36     18     52     35     37     36
DK/NA                21     11     24     21     18     24
 
 
9. Would you say that Cory Booker would be good at getting things done for New Jersey in the United States Senate, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  57%    27%    85%    52%    52%    63%
No                   31     60      6     38     40     22
DK/NA                11     13      9     10      8     15
 
 
10. Would you say that Steve Lonegan would be good at getting things done for New Jersey in the United States Senate, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  39%    75%     9%    45%    46%    31%
No                   42     15     69     36     40     44
DK/NA                19     10     22     19     13     25
 
 
11. As you may know, Cory Booker once exchanged private twitter messages with a Portland Oregon stripper. Regardless of whether or not you support him, do you think this is or is not a legitimate issue in the Senate election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Legitimate           18%    35%     9%    16%    17%    18%
Not legitimate       76     60     86     80     79     73
DK/NA                 6      6      5      4      4      9
 
 
14. Do you support or oppose the health care law passed by Barack Obama and Congress in 2010?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Support              51%     8%    92%    38%    45%    57%
Oppose               44     87      4     56     52     36
DK/NA                 5      5      4      6      3      7
 
                                          GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   INCONVENIENCE Q18
                     Lib    Mod    Con    Major  Minor  No
 
Support              89%    53%    13%    71%    52%    48%
Oppose               10     39     83     28     42     47
DK/NA                 1      7      4      1      7      5
 
 
15. Do you support or oppose Congress cutting off funding of the health care law as a way to stop it from being put into place?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Support              35%    68%     6%    41%    41%    28%
Oppose               62     27     93     56     57     66
DK/NA                 4      5      2      3      2      6
 
                                          GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   INCONVENIENCE Q18
                     Lib    Mod    Con    Major  Minor  No
 
Support              10%    27%    70%    19%    38%    37%
Oppose               89     68     26     77     62     60
DK/NA                 1      5      4      4      -      3
 
 
16. Do you support or oppose Congress shutting down major activities of the federal government as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Support              17%    36%     1%    20%    21%    12%
Oppose               77     55     97     73     71     83
DK/NA                 6      9      2      7      8      5
 
                                          GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   INCONVENIENCE Q18
                     Lib    Mod    Con    Major  Minor  No
 
Support               2%    12%    38%     9%    17%    18%
Oppose               96     84     50     90     81     75
DK/NA                 1      4     12      1      2      7
 
 
17. Do you support or oppose Congress holding back on increasing the nation's borrowing limit, which could result in a default, as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Support              24%    50%     4%    27%    29%    20%
Oppose               68     39     92     67     64     73
DK/NA                 7     11      4      5      7      8
 
                                          GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY   INCONVENIENCE Q18
                     Lib    Mod    Con    Major  Minor  No
 
Support               5%    19%    52%    14%    25%    26%
Oppose               92     75     39     84     70     66
DK/NA                 4      6      9      1      5      8
 
 
18. Have you or a member of your family been personally inconvenienced by the partial shutdown of the federal government or not? IF YES: Is it a major inconvenience or a minor inconvenience?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Major inconvenience  11%     5%    16%    11%     8%    15%
Minor inconvenience  11      9     12     11     11     11
No inconvenience     76     86     71     78     80     72
DK/NA                 2      -      1      -      1      3
 
                     POLITICAL PHILSPHY
                     Lib    Mod    Con
 
Major inconvenience  18%    13%     4%
Minor inconvenience  15     12      4
No inconvenience     67     74     91
DK/NA                 1      1      -
 
 
 

Demographic Summary