October 15, 2013 - Booker Holds 14-Point Lead In NJ Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds
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One day before the special election for New Jersey's U.S. Senate seat, Newark Mayor Cory Booker, the Democrat, leads former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, the Republican, 54 - 40 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll completed last night and released today.

This is virtually unchanged from a 53 - 41 percent Booker lead in an October 9 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Gender and racial gaps persist in today's results: Women back Booker 58 - 36 percent while men back the Democrat 50 - 45 percent. White voters go 50 percent for Lonegan and 47 percent for Booker, as black voters go Democratic 93 - 1 percent.

Independent voters are divided 46 - 46 percent.

Five percent of likely voters remain undecided and 4 percent of those who chose a candidate say there's a "good chance" they will change their mind by tomorrow.

"It's a New Jersey habit electing Democrats to the Senate. The liberal mayor of Newark, Cory Booker, holds onto the double-digit lead over the conservative former mayor of Bogota, Steve Lonegan, that we measured when we first looked at likely voters," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

From October 10 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,696 New Jersey likely voters in the special U.S. Senate election, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Cory Booker the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Booker or Lonegan? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Booker               54%    11%    92%    46%    50%    58%    47%    93%
Lonegan              40     87      4     46     45     36     50      1
SOMEONE ELSE(VOL)     -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      2      4      7      4      6      3      6
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Cory Booker the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Booker or Lonegan? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 15  Oct 09  Sep 24
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Booker               54      53      53
Lonegan              40      41      41
SOMEONE ELSE (VOL)    -       1       1
DK/NA                 5       5       5
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (Candidate not chosen)? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot   Booker  Lonegan
 
Def vote for cand    90%    90%    91%
Unlikely to change    5      5      5
Good chance change    4      4      3
DK/NA                 1      1      2
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (Candidate not chosen)? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 15  Oct 09  Sep 24
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Def vote for cand    90      86      86
Unlikely to change    5       7       6
Good chance change    4       6       5
DK/NA                 1       2       2
 
 
1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot   Booker  Lonegan
 
Very enthusiastic    45%    47%    42%
Somewht enthusiastic 44     40     49
Not so enthusiastic   7      8      6
Not enthus at all     3      4      2
DK/NA                 1      2      1
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 15  Oct 09  Sep 24
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Very enthusiastic    45      43      39
Somewht enthusiastic 44      46      50
Not so enthusiastic   7       7       6
Not enthus at all     3       3       4
DK/NA                 1       1       1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Cory Booker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            53%    18%    83%    49%    51%    55%    49%    83%
Unfavorable          35     71      6     38     39     31     41      4
Hvn't hrd enough     10      9     10      9      8     11      8     11
REFUSED               2      2      -      3      1      3      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Cory Booker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 15  Oct 09  Sep 24
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            53      57      53
Unfavorable          35      32      30
Hvn't hrd enough     10       9      16
REFUSED               2       2       1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Steve Lonegan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            36%    73%     6%    41%    42%    30%    44%     6%
Unfavorable          36      9     60     31     35     37     35     45
Hvn't hrd enough     27     17     34     26     22     31     19     46
REFUSED               2      2      1      2      1      3      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Steve Lonegan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 15  Oct 09  Sep 24
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            36      36      35
Unfavorable          36      33      22
Hvn't hrd enough     27      28      43
REFUSED               2       3       1
 
 

Demographic Summary