May 19, 2004 - Catholic Leaders Should Stay Out Of Politics, New Jersey Voters Tell Quinnipiac University Poll; McGreevey Approval Split, But Highest In 19 Months
New Jersey voters back Gov. James McGreevey's proposed "millionaires' tax" and by 3 -1 margins back him in the controversy with Catholic Church leaders, pushing the Governor's approval to its highest level in 19 months, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. The Governor's a near-even 41 - 43 percent approval compares to a negative 38 - 47 percent rating in a March 9 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

By a 59 - 34 percent margin, voters approve of McGreevey's proposal to increase the state income tax on people making more than $500,000 per year, using the money for property tax relief. A total of 69 percent of voters are not very concerned that McGreevey is breaking a "no new taxes" promise.

"Those who wrote off Gov. McGreevey a few months ago will have to get their crystal balls repaired. True, his approval rating is still negative, and a majority still would like to see someone else as Governor, but right now he would have to be favored for re-election. There's no great enthusiasm for Sen. Corzine to challenge McGreevey and the usual cast of Republican challengers is not exciting voters either. McGreevey's millionaire's tax is popular because most voters don't have to pay it and only 28 percent says it's a big deal that he broke his promise not to raise taxes," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"McGreevey's cautious approach and the lack of a popular challenger leave him in better shape than many expected 18 months before election day," Richards added.

By a 54 - 33 percent margin, New Jersey voters want someone other than McGreevey elected Governor next year. Voters say 42 - 39 percent that they would not like Democratic Sen. Jon Corzine to challenge McGreevey for Governor.

In a first look at the 2005 field, McGreevey leads possible Republican challengers:
  • 44 - 34 percent over Diane Allen;
  • 48 - 36 percent over Brett Schundler;
  • 48 - 35 percent over Douglas Forrester. Catholic Issues
New Jersey voters disapprove 68 - 21 percent of comments by some Catholic clergy that they would deny Holy Communion to McGreevey because of his position on abortion. Catholic voters disapprove 64 - 27 percent. Only 7 percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for McGreevey because of these comments, while 9 percent are more likely and 82 percent say it won't influence their vote.

By a 74 - 21 percent margin, 69 - 25 percent among Catholics, voters say it is wrong for Catholic church leaders to try to pressure politicians on issues such as abortion.

Voters say 76 - 22 percent that a public official's religious beliefs should be a private matter, not a matter for public discussion.

"New Jersey voters - including Catholics - want church leaders to stay out of politics and get off Gov. McGreevey's back. Voters say it is wrong for Catholic Church leaders to cross that line between church and state and try to pressure Catholic politicians on issues such as abortion. The church's attack on the Governor is clearly one of the reasons McGreevey's approval numbers are bouncing back," Richards added.

From May 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,122 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent. The survey includes 473 Catholics, with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way James McGreevey is handling his job as Governor?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


May 19, 2004 41 43 16 Mar 9, 2004 38 47 15 Nov 12, 2003 34 52 14 Sep 24, 2003 35 52 14 Jul 17, 2003 35 49 16 Jun 18, 2003 35 47 18 Apr 2, 2003 38 44 18 Jan 29, 2003 40 41 18 Dec 11, 2002 37 42 21 Oct 7, 2002 44 43 13 Sep 12, 2002 41 36 23 Aug 8, 2002 42 34 25 Jun 20, 2002 43 30 27 Apr 24, 2002 40 32 28 Mar 7, 2002 46 22 32 Jan 31, 2002 42 19 39



TREND: James McGreevey will be up for re-election in 2005. Would you like to see James McGreevey re-elected Governor, or would you rather see someone else elected Governor?
                                Smone
                        JM      else    DK/NA


May 19, 2004 33 54 13 Mar 9, 2004 28 55 16 Nov 12, 2003 24 57 19 Sep 24, 2003 24 59 17 Jul 17, 2003 24 57 19 Jun 18, 2003 24 56 20



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


May 19, 2004 38 39 23 Mar 9, 2004 34 47 19 Nov 12, 2003 30 51 19 Sep 24, 2003 33 49 18 Jul 17, 2003 32 48 20 Jun 18, 2003 30 46 24 Apr 2, 2003 38 39 24



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as United States Senator?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


May 19, 2004 49 27 23 Mar 9, 2004 47 28 25 Nov 12, 2003 44 30 26 Sep 24, 2003 48 30 22 Jul 17, 2003 48 27 26 Jun 18, 2003 44 30 26 Apr 2, 2003 46 29 25 Jan 29, 2003 47 23 30 Dec 11, 2002 47 22 30 Oct 7, 2002 52 26 22 Sep 12, 2002 47 19 33 Aug 8, 2002 49 19 31 Jun 19, 2002 46 18 36 Apr 24, 2002 48 20 32 Mar 6, 2002 51 20 29 Jan 30, 2002 51 15 33 Oct 18, 2001 51 19 29 Aug 7, 2001 50 21 29 Jul 5, 2001 48 22 30 May 14, 2001 49 20 31 Apr 11, 2001 46 21 33 Mar 8, 2001 43 21 36 Feb 8, 2001 35 18 47



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


May 19, 2004 48 33 19 Mar 9, 2004 44 33 23 Nov 12, 2003 45 33 23 Sep 24, 2003 48 34 18 Jul 17, 2003 43 33 24 Jun 18, 2003 41 34 25 Apr 2, 2003 44 32 24 Jan 29, 2003 42 27 32 Dec 6, 2000 52 20 27 Aug 24, 2000 51 21 28 Jul 27, 2000 55 22 23 Mar 29, 2000 53 22 25 Feb 23, 2000 52 23 25 Sep 23, 1999 55 25 20 Jul 22, 1999 55 25 20 Mar 31, 1999 54 25 21 Feb 12, 1999 52 29 19 Nov 12, 1998 52 26 22 Aug 10, 1998 50 24 26 Apr 23, 1998 51 25 23 Mar 4, 1998 52 23 25 Oct 22, 1997 51 26 23 Sep 16, 1997 53 26 22 Jul 29, 1997 50 25 26 Apr 10, 1997 52 25 23 Feb 8, 1996 43 32 26



TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                       Very    Smwht   Smwht   Very
                       sat     sat     dis     dis     DK/NA


May 19, 2004 5 45 29 20 - Mar 9, 2004 4 40 36 19 1 Nov 12, 2003 3 37 35 23 1 Sep 24, 2003 4 41 33 22 1 Jul 17, 2003 4 42 35 18 1 Jun 18, 2003 5 39 34 21 2 Apr 2, 2003 4 42 37 16 2 Jan 29, 2003 3 42 33 20 1 Dec 11, 2002 4 47 31 17 1 Jun 20, 2002 5 48 31 15 1 Mar 7, 2002 4 50 30 14 2 Dec 26, 2000 10 61 21 7 1 Feb 12, 1999 11 60 21 7 - Oct 22, 1997 8 53 26 12 1 Sep 16, 1997 9 48 27 15 - Jun 25, 1997 9 50 28 13 1 Apr 10, 1997 7 52 29 11 1 Feb 20, 1997 11 56 23 10 1 Dec 11, 1996 8 49 31 12 1



1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way James McGreevey is handling his job as Governor?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Approve 41% 20% 60% 37% 40% 39% 55% Disapprove 43 66 25 43 42 47 33 DK/NA 16 14 15 19 17 14 13

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 37% 44% 42% 47% 36% 36% 38% Disapprove 49 38 36 39 52 45 47 DK/NA 14 18 22 14 12 19 15



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Approve 38% 28% 48% 35% 34% 42% 38% Disapprove 39 53 27 42 38 39 36 DK/NA 23 19 25 23 28 19 26

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 36% 40% 45% 43% 35% 29% 34% Disapprove 46 33 32 39 48 39 41 DK/NA 18 27 23 18 18 32 25



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Approve 49% 34% 64% 47% 42% 50% 70% Disapprove 27 43 12 30 30 26 15 DK/NA 23 22 24 23 28 24 16

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 49% 49% 51% 55% 44% 50% 41% Disapprove 33 23 29 24 33 21 34 DK/NA 18 28 20 21 22 29 26



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Approve 48% 28% 66% 48% 44% 50% 67% Disapprove 33 57 14 32 37 33 19 DK/NA 19 15 21 20 19 18 14

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 49% 48% 56% 53% 46% 44% 41% Disapprove 38 28 26 29 38 33 39 DK/NA 13 24 18 18 16 24 20



16. James McGreevey will be up for re-election in 2005. Would you like to see James McGreevey re-elected Governor, or would you rather see someone else elected Governor?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Yes/Re-elected 33% 16% 49% 27% 34% 32% 36% No/Someone else 54 74 38 58 56 57 38 DK/NA 13 10 13 15 11 11 26

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Yes/Re-elected 28% 36% 41% 34% 24% 33% 30% No/Someone else 60 49 45 52 62 55 59 DK/NA 12 14 14 14 14 12 11



17. Would you like to see Senator Jon Corzine challenge Governor James McGreevey for the Democratic nomination for Governor next year?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Yes 39% 35% 41% 39% 38% 41% 27% No 42 46 41 41 41 42 54 DK/NA 19 19 18 20 21 16 20

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Yes 40% 39% 40% 38% 38% 45% 36% No 45 39 43 45 38 35 45 DK/NA 15 22 16 17 23 20 20



18. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were James McGreevey the Democrat, and Diane Allen the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


McGreevey 44% 18% 68% 39% 40% 45% 51% Allen 34 58 17 33 35 36 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 3 3 2 4 DK/NA 19 21 12 23 20 17 17

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

McGreevey 41% 46% 64% 47% 27% 43% 37% Allen 37 31 16 30 45 46 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 3 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 4 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 17 20 15 21 23 8 24



19. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were James McGreevey the Democrat, and Bret Schundler the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


McGreevey 48% 18% 74% 45% 45% 44% 60% Schundler 36 69 13 34 40 42 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 1 2 3 DK/NA 13 11 11 17 12 12 12

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

McGreevey 44% 52% 61% 52% 33% 50% 43% Schundler 41 31 26 32 51 31 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 1 3 1 DK/NA 12 15 10 13 14 16 14



20. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were James McGreevey the Democrat, and Douglas Forrester the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


McGreevey 48% 17% 75% 44% 47% 44% 56% Forrester 35 66 11 35 37 40 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 3 1 - DK/NA 15 15 11 18 13 13 19

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

McGreevey 44% 51% 65% 50% 34% 46% 43% Forrester 40 30 21 33 53 34 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 3 - DK/NA 13 16 13 14 10 17 19



21. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Very satisfied 5% 3% 8% 4% 5% 6% 15% Smwht satisfied 45 36 55 44 41 47 52 Smwht dissatisfied 29 32 26 30 32 26 21 Very dissatisfied 20 29 11 22 22 21 12 DK/NA - - 1 - - 1 -

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Very satisfied 5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 6% 5% Smwht satisfied 44 46 51 50 41 42 37 Smwht dissatisfied 28 30 23 29 31 29 35 Very dissatisfied 23 17 18 16 23 23 22 DK/NA - - 1 - - - -



22. Governor McGreevey has proposed raising the income tax on New Jersey taxpayers making over 500 thousand dollars and in return promises to increase property tax rebates for 90 percent of homeowners. Do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea?
                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Good idea 59% 43% 73% 59% 58% 59% 61% Bad idea 34 51 20 33 37 33 34 DK/NA 7 6 7 7 5 8 5

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Good idea 58% 60% 67% 60% 50% 60% 57% Bad idea 38 31 24 33 42 35 36 DK/NA 5 9 9 7 8 5 7



23. How concerned are you that by proposing to raise taxes on those making over 500 thousand dollars Governor McGreevey broke his promise not to raise taxes. Is this a major concern to you, a minor concern, or not a concern at all?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Major concern 28% 42% 18% 25% 30% 29% 18% Minor concern 34 32 34 36 35 36 35 Not a concern 35 24 43 38 32 33 43 DK/NA 2 1 4 1 2 1 4

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Major concern 29% 27% 29% 24% 35% 31% 29% Minor concern 30 38 33 35 36 34 33 Not a concern 39 32 34 40 28 32 36 DK/NA 2 3 4 2 1 3 3



24. The governor has proposed calling a constitutional convention after the 2005 elections to restructure the property tax system in New Jersey. Do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Good idea 68% 66% 74% 64% 67% 67% 74% Bad idea 20 24 14 21 20 20 13 DK/NA 13 10 12 16 13 13 13

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Good idea 68% 67% 66% 68% 74% 68% 63% Bad idea 21 18 23 18 13 19 25 DK/NA 11 14 11 14 13 13 12



25. Would you rather see property tax reform handled by -- a vote of the legislature or a constitutional convention?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Legislature 38% 39% 38% 36% 41% 34% 35% Convention 43 41 44 46 39 47 44 DK/NA 19 20 18 18 20 19 21

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Legislature 38% 38% 48% 42% 34% 35% 31% Convention 50 37 38 40 44 47 48 DK/NA 12 25 14 19 21 18 20



26. How much have you heard or read about the announcement by some Catholic church leaders in New Jersey to deny communion to Governor McGreevey because of his stand on abortion? A lot, some, only a little, or nothing at all?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


A lot 30% 35% 30% 30% 24% 40% 33% Some 26 28 25 27 30 24 24 Only a little 16 14 17 15 20 14 15 Nothing at all 27 22 28 27 25 21 25 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 2 - 2

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

A lot 30% 31% 30% 31% 28% 30% 30% Some 26 26 29 24 31 22 26 Only a little 16 17 12 16 14 21 17 Nothing at all 27 26 28 27 26 25 26 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 1 1 1



27. Do you approve or disapprove of the announcement by some Catholic church leaders in New Jersey that they would deny communion to Governor McGreevey because of his stand on abortion?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Approve 21% 36% 9% 24% 21% 27% 7% Disapprove 68 53 83 64 68 64 79 DK/NA 10 11 8 12 10 9 14

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 24% 20% 19% 19% 24% 24% 24% Disapprove 67 70 76 71 64 68 62 DK/NA 10 10 5 10 12 9 14



28. Does this announcement by some Catholic church leaders make you more likely to vote for Governor McGreevey, less likely to vote for Governor McGreevey, or doesn't it affect your vote?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


More likely 9% 3% 12% 11% 8% 6% 11% Less likely 7 11 5 7 7 11 1 Doesn't affect vt 82 85 82 78 83 81 84 DK/NA 2 1 2 4 1 2 5

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

More likely 7% 10% 12% 9% 8% 5% 10% Less likely 7 7 4 8 6 8 10 Doesn't affect vt 84 80 82 81 84 86 78 DK/NA 2 2 1 3 2 2 2



29. Do you think it is right or wrong for Catholic church leaders to attempt to publicly pressure Catholic politicians on issues such as abortion?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Right 21% 34% 8% 25% 22% 25% 12% Wrong 74 61 88 71 73 69 86 DK/NA 5 6 4 4 4 6 2

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Right 25% 18% 16% 20% 29% 21% 22% Wrong 70 77 79 74 67 76 74 DK/NA 5 4 4 6 5 3 4



30. Do you believe a public official's religious beliefs should be a matter of public discussion or should they be a private matter?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Public discussion 22% 31% 12% 24% 27% 20% 18% Private matter 76 66 85 74 71 77 79 DK/NA 3 3 3 2 2 3 3

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Public discussion 28% 17% 16% 22% 24% 25% 21% Private matter 70 81 78 75 74 73 77 DK/NA 3 3 6 2 2 1 2



31. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Legal all cases 24% 18% 30% 24% 21% 19% 49% Legal most cases 37 30 41 40 39 34 40 Illegal most cases 21 27 17 23 22 26 4 Illegal all cases 12 21 4 9 12 13 6 DK/NA 6 4 7 5 6 7 2

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Legal all cases 22% 26% 26% 24% 28% 17% 26% Legal most cases 37 37 39 35 41 42 30 Illegal most cases 23 20 20 21 21 25 21 Illegal all cases 12 11 8 13 7 12 16 DK/NA 5 6 7 6 4 5 7