May 20, 2004 - Kerry Edges Bush By Only 3 Points In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Concerns About Iraq, Terrorism Help President
Democratic challenger John Kerry has a narrow 46 - 43 percent lead over President George W. Bush in New Jersey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independent candidate Ralph Nader gets 5 percent.

In a head to head matchup, without Nader, Sen. Kerry leads President Bush 47 - 44 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University finds. In the Bush- Kerry matchup, independent voters split 46 -45 percent. In the three-way race, independent voters split 41 - 41 percent, with 13 percent for Nader.

New Jersey voters give Bush a negative 44 - 52 percent approval rating, matching his lowest ever approval rating in the state.

"Despite all the bad news out of Iraq, President Bush is threatening to make a horse race out of New Jersey, a state everyone had put in the 'safe' column for John Kerry. Actually it's not a case of the President doing so well in New Jersey - his approval rating remains in negative territory - but John Kerry is just not catching on. His favorability rating is a mediocre 27 - 28 percent, with 33 percent mixed and 13 percent of the voters say they haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"If Kerry is going to oust Bush, he needs to seal up states like New Jersey early so he can concentrate his time and money on the key battleground states," Richards added.

New Jersey voters give Bush a negative 37 - 40 percent favorability rating, with 21 percent mixed.

Kerry gets a split 27 - 28 percent favorability, with 33 percent mixed and 13 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion of him.

Nader gets a negative 15 - 31 percent favorability, with 21 percent mixed and 32 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Given three choices, 37 percent of New Jersey voters say the economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote for President, while 33 percent list Iraq and 26 percent list terrorism.

Kerry would do a better job than Bush on the economy, voters say 50 - 43 percent. Bush would do a better job in Iraq, voters say 48 - 44 percent and the President would do a better job on terrorism, voters say 52 - 38 percent.

"If the principal concerns of New Jersey voters are the war in Iraq and the fight against terrorism, rather than the economy, the wartime President has a better chance of holding his ground against the Democratic challenger," Richards added.

From May 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,122 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


May 20, 2004 44 52 4 Mar 9, 2004 44 52 5 Nov 13, 2003 47 50 3 Sep 25, 2003 49 47 4 Jul 17, 2003 53 43 4 Jun 19, 2003 58 39 3 Apr 1, 2003 67 29 4 Jan 29, 2003 54 42 4 Dec 11, 2002 58 36 5 Oct 7, 2002 62 34 5 Sep 12, 2002 64 30 6 Aug 8, 2002 61 32 7 Jun 19, 2002 73 21 7 Apr 24, 2002 77 18 5 Mar 7, 2002 77 18 5 Jan 30, 2002 82 13 6 Oct 18, 2001 90 7 3 Sep 26, 2001 88 8 5 Aug 7, 2001 52 42 6 Jul 5, 2001 53 42 5 May 14, 2001 57 35 7 Apr 11, 2001 57 34 9 Mar 8, 2001 62 26 12 Feb 8, 2001 51 28 21



TREND: Suppose/If the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                       SMONE   WLDN'T 
                       JK      GWB     ELSE    VOTE   DK/NA


May 20, 2004 47 44 1 1 6 Nov 13, 2003 45 46 1 1 6 Sep 25, 2003 43 48 1 1 6 Jun 19, 2003 37 53 1 1 8



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Approve 44% 84% 16% 42% 45% 52% 29% Disapprove 52 11 81 54 53 42 67 DK/NA 4 5 3 4 3 6 4

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 48% 41% 33% 44% 61% 38% 45% Disapprove 48 55 63 51 34 59 51 DK/NA 4 4 4 5 5 3 3



6. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


A lot 48% 58% 45% 44% 44% 48% 73% Some 33 29 35 36 38 33 21 Only a little 14 9 15 16 13 14 5 None at all 5 5 4 5 5 5 1 DK/NA - - - - - - -

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

A lot 55% 42% 47% 46% 57% 45% 48% Some 31 35 38 38 24 38 23 Only a little 10 17 12 11 15 10 21 None at all 4 6 2 5 3 7 8 DK/NA - - - - - - -



7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Kerry 47% 6% 81% 46% 47% 39% 57% Bush 44 87 10 45 45 53 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 - 3 DK/NA 6 6 7 5 6 6 11

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Kerry 42% 52% 60% 47% 30% 55% 45% Bush 50 39 34 44 62 37 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 5 7 4 7 6 7 7



8. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Kerry 46% 7% 80% 41% 47% 38% 56% Bush 43 86 10 41 43 51 29 Nader 5 1 2 13 5 5 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 - - DK/NA 5 4 5 5 4 6 8

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Kerry 43% 48% 61% 44% 29% 52% 44% Bush 48 38 32 43 59 33 45 Nader 4 6 2 5 6 8 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - 2 DK/NA 4 6 4 6 5 6 4



9. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Favorable 37% 77% 11% 31% 37% 46% 24% Unfavorable 40 7 66 42 40 31 52 Mixed 21 15 20 25 20 21 20 Hvn't hrd enough 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 -

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Favorable 40% 34% 27% 38% 48% 31% 41% Unfavorable 38 42 53 39 23 49 38 Mixed 19 22 16 23 27 16 20 Hvn't hrd enough 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 REFUSED 1 - - - 1 2 -



10. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Favorable 27% 6% 51% 21% 25% 25% 39% Unfavorable 28 61 5 24 30 30 20 Mixed 33 22 32 42 31 32 35 Hvn't hrd enough 13 11 11 13 14 13 6 REFUSED - - - - - - -

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Favorable 26% 28% 33% 27% 20% 32% 25% Unfavorable 32 24 15 27 43 22 31 Mixed 32 33 34 35 30 33 29 Hvn't hrd enough 10 15 18 11 7 12 16 REFUSED - - - - - 1 -



11. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Favorable 15% 13% 10% 24% 15% 14% 19% Unfavorable 31 35 33 29 25 33 46 Mixed 21 25 21 19 25 21 20 Hvn't hrd enough 32 26 36 27 34 31 14 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 2

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Favorable 17% 13% 14% 14% 17% 17% 14% Unfavorable 37 26 24 30 39 27 35 Mixed 19 23 22 25 21 19 18 Hvn't hrd enough 26 37 41 30 22 35 32 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 2 2 1



12. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president the situation in Iraq, the economy, or terrorism?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Iraq 33% 25% 41% 32% 32% 33% 35% Economy 37 28 42 38 40 32 27 Terrorism 26 44 15 27 24 32 35 DK/NA 3 3 2 3 3 3 3

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Iraq 29% 37% 31% 32% 26% 42% 34% Economy 38 37 44 38 39 33 32 Terrorism 31 22 23 26 32 22 28 DK/NA 2 4 2 4 2 2 5



13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job -- on the ecconomy, George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Bush 43% 82% 13% 42% 44% 52% 34% Kerry 50 11 80 49 45 43 60 DK/NA 7 8 6 9 10 5 6

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Bush 48% 39% 32% 42% 57% 38% 48% Kerry 46 52 65 50 35 50 47 DK/NA 6 8 3 8 8 12 5



14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job -- on the situation in Iraq, George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Bush 48% 90% 15% 48% 49% 56% 33% Kerry 44 7 74 44 40 38 54 DK/NA 8 3 10 8 11 5 14

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Bush 54% 42% 36% 49% 65% 40% 51% Kerry 39 49 56 44 27 48 44 DK/NA 7 9 9 7 8 12 5



15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job -- on terrorism, George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                    RELIGION..........
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Prot    Cath   Jew


Bush 52% 89% 24% 54% 51% 61% 42% Kerry 38 6 66 36 35 32 48 DK/NA 10 4 11 9 14 7 10

Philly Men Wom Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Bush 59% 47% 42% 52% 72% 43% 56% Kerry 33 42 48 38 23 46 35 DK/NA 8 11 10 10 6 11 10