June 23, 2004 - Bush Drops, Giving Kerry Bigger Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; President's Approval At All-Time Low In State
Sen. John Kerry has a 46 - 40 percent lead over President George W. Bush among New Jersey voters, with 7 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 46 - 43 percent Kerry lead, with 5 percent for Nader, in a May 20 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

New Jersey voters give President Bush a negative 42 - 54 percent approval rating, his lowest ever in the Garden State. Men split on the President's approval 48 - 47 percent as women give him a negative 37 - 60 percent.

By a 54 - 41 percent margin, voters say it was wrong for the United States to go to war in Iraq. Men split 48 - 47 percent on the question as women say 59 - 34 percent that the war is wrong.

"President Bush's approval rating has hit an all time low in New Jersey, giving Sen. John Kerry a 6-point lead in the Garden State presidential sweepstakes. But Kerry is just holding his ground as Bush fades," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The Democrat remains the strong choice of voters as the candidate best able to handle the economy. But somewhat surprisingly, voters feel he would do as good a job as the President in handling the war in Iraq."

"The Iraq war has grown unpopular in New Jersey, with 54 percent saying it was the wrong thing for the United States to do," Richards added.

New Jersey voters give Bush a negative 35 - 40 percent favorability rating, with 23 percent mixed.

Kerry gets a lukewarm 30 - 28 percent favorability, with 28 percent mixed and 13 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

"Kerry is still not as strong as he should be as the Democratic presidential contender in New Jersey. He gets very mixed favorability ratings including 13 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion," Richards said.

Only 40 percent of New Jersey voters are very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with the way things are going in the nation today, with 59 percent who are somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. Among these same voters, 54 percent are satisfied with the way things are going in the Garden State today, with 46 percent who are dissatisfied.

With three choices, 35 percent of New Jersey voters say the economy is the most important issue as they decide how to vote for President, followed by 33 percent who list terrorism and 27 percent who list Iraq.

Kerry would do a better job than Bush on the economy, voters say 52 - 40 percent. Bush would do a better job on terrorism, voters say 50 - 39 percent, and Bush and Kerry split 46 - 45 percent on who would do a better job on Iraq.

From June 15 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,167 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                    App     Dis     DK/NA


Jun 23, 2004 42 54 4 May 20, 2004 44 52 4 Mar 9, 2004 44 52 5 Nov 13, 2003 47 50 3 Sep 25, 2003 49 47 4 Jul 17, 2003 53 43 4 Jun 19, 2003 58 39 3 Apr 1, 2003 67 29 4 Jan 29, 2003 54 42 4 Dec 11, 2002 58 36 5 Oct 7, 2002 62 34 5 Sep 12, 2002 64 30 6 Aug 8, 2002 61 32 7 Jun 19, 2002 73 21 7 Apr 24, 2002 77 18 5 Mar 7, 2002 77 18 5 Jan 30, 2002 82 13 6 Oct 18, 2001 90 7 3 Sep 26, 2001 88 8 5 Aug 7, 2001 52 42 6 Jul 5, 2001 53 42 5 May 14, 2001 57 35 7 Apr 11, 2001 57 34 9 Mar 8, 2001 62 26 12 Feb 8, 2001 51 28 21



TREND: Suppose/If the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                    SMONE   WLDN'T 
                    JK      GWB     ELSE    VOTE   DK/NA


Jun 23, 2004 49 41 2 1 6 May 20, 2004 47 44 1 1 6 Nov 13, 2003 45 46 1 1 6 Sep 25, 2003 43 48 1 1 6 Jun 19, 2003 37 53 1 1 8



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote?

                                            SMONE   WLDN'T
                    JK      GWB     RN      ELSE    VOTE    DK/NA


Jun 23, 2004 46 40 7 - 1 6 May 20, 2004 46 43 5 1 1 5



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Approve 42% 81% 12% 39% 48% 37% 39% Disapprove 54 16 84 56 47 60 57 DK/NA 4 3 3 5 5 4 4

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 38% 36% 53% 36% 53% Disapprove 56 60 45 62 41 DK/NA 5 5 1 3 6



6. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


A lot 50% 49% 51% 50% 56% 44% 53% Some 31 37 29 31 27 35 33 Only a little 14 11 17 13 12 16 11 None at all 4 3 4 5 5 4 3 DK/NA - - - - - 1 -

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

A lot 55% 49% 52% 45% 49% Some 30 31 35 35 27 Only a little 12 15 6 15 20 None at all 3 3 7 6 3 DK/NA - 1 - - -



7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Kerry 49% 12% 85% 47% 44% 54% 52% Bush 41 83 9 39 46 37 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 4 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 6 4 5 9 5 7 7

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Kerry 54% 55% 40% 53% 37% Bush 33 36 51 37 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 4 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 7 7 5 6 5



8. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?

                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Kerry 46% 11% 81% 43% 41% 49% 46% Bush 40 82 9 37 44 36 39 Nader 7 4 5 11 8 7 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - - DK/NA 6 4 5 7 4 7 5

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Kerry 51% 54% 37% 50% 29% Bush 35 34 50 36 51 Nader 9 5 7 6 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 2 - 1 DK/NA 5 6 4 7 6



9. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Favorable 35% 74% 8% 32% 40% 32% 36% Unfavorable 40 7 72 36 37 43 43 Mixed 23 18 18 31 22 24 19 Hvn't hrd enough 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 1

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Favorable 32% 31% 42% 31% 46% Unfavorable 51 42 31 43 30 Mixed 14 25 26 23 23 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 - 2 0 REFUSED - 1 - 1 1



10. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Favorable 30% 8% 56% 24% 28% 32% 32% Unfavorable 28 58 6 27 33 24 26 Mixed 28 20 26 36 27 28 26 Hvn't hrd enough 13 12 11 12 11 14 16 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 1 -

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Favorable 34% 31% 26% 34% 25% Unfavorable 21 24 35 24 41 Mixed 23 31 27 30 23 Hvn't hrd enough 22 11 12 11 11 REFUSED - 2 1 - 1



11. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Favorable 15% 12% 13% 19% 17% 14% 16% Unfavorable 26 35 27 21 31 22 26 Mixed 24 27 18 26 24 23 27 Hvn't hrd enough 32 24 39 31 25 39 30 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 3 2

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Favorable 14% 12% 17% 15% 20% Unfavorable 29 26 25 23 29 Mixed 22 23 31 19 24 Hvn't hrd enough 34 36 24 38 26 REFUSED 1 4 3 4 1



12. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Very satisfied 7% 17% 2% 4% 8% 6% 4% Smwht satisfied 33 57 14 34 40 28 30 Smwht dissatisfied 34 18 44 36 28 39 35 Very dissatisfied 25 8 39 26 23 27 31 DK/NA - - 1 - 1 - -

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Very satisfied 5% 4% 10% 9% 11% Smwht satisfied 32 31 40 29 38 Smwht dissatisfied 31 35 31 38 32 Very dissatisfied 32 29 19 24 20 DK/NA - 1 - 1 -



13. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president the situation in Iraq, the economy, or terrorism?

                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Iraq 27% 17% 36% 29% 28% 27% 28% Economy 35 31 39 34 36 34 36 Terrorism 33 49 20 33 32 34 32 DK/NA 5 3 5 4 4 5 4

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Iraq 26% 24% 36% 29% 26% Economy 41 38 30 31 32 Terrorism 29 31 32 35 39 DK/NA 4 7 2 4 3



14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Bush 40% 82% 6% 40% 43% 38% 38% Kerry 52 14 87 51 51 52 54 DK/NA 8 4 7 10 6 10 7

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Bush 35% 34% 50% 35% 55% Kerry 60 55 44 56 40 DK/NA 5 10 6 10 5



15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Bush 46% 85% 14% 45% 52% 40% 42% Kerry 45 13 76 46 40 50 49 DK/NA 9 3 10 9 8 10 10

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Bush 37% 41% 53% 42% 60% Kerry 56 46 41 49 33 DK/NA 7 13 6 9 7



16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Bush 50% 88% 19% 50% 59% 43% 50% Kerry 39 8 69 37 33 45 42 DK/NA 10 4 12 12 8 12 8

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Bush 45% 43% 62% 44% 64% Kerry 47 41 32 47 27 DK/NA 7 16 5 9 9



17. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as -- excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Excellent 3% 9% 0% 1% 3% 3% 2% Good 38 60 17 41 48 30 34 Not so good 44 25 60 44 36 50 43 Poor 14 5 22 13 12 16 22 DK/NA 1 1 1 - - 1 -

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Excellent 2% 2% 3% 2% 6% Good 31 33 50 33 48 Not so good 47 48 38 45 36 Poor 19 15 8 18 11 DK/NA - 2 - 1 -



18. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Right thing 41% 72% 16% 40% 48% 34% 36% Wrong thing 54 22 78 55 47 59 58 DK/NA 5 6 6 4 5 6 6

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Right thing 34% 36% 53% 38% 49% Wrong thing 60 59 43 57 44 DK/NA 6 5 5 5 7