August 5, 2004 - Kerry Bounces In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Low Bush Approval, Little Support For War
A post-convention bounce gives Sen. John Kerry a 49 - 36 percent lead over President George W. Bush among New Jersey voters, with 6 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. With Nader out of the race, Kerry is ahead 52 - 38 percent.

This compares to a 46 - 40 percent Kerry lead, with 7 percent for Nader, in a June 23 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

New Jersey voters give President Bush a negative 43 - 53 percent approval rating. Approval ratings among men and women are the same.

By a 54 - 40 percent margin, New Jersey voters say it was wrong for the United States to go to war in Iraq. This is unchanged from June 23. Men say 55 - 41 percent that the war is wrong, similar to 53 - 39 percent among women voters.

"This is the kind of lead you expect a Democratic candidate to have in Democratic New Jersey. The important thing is that Sen. Kerry's favorability rating jumped 8 points at a time when President Bush's job approval and support for the war in Iraq remained low," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

New Jersey voters give Bush a negative 34 - 43 percent favorability rating, with 21 percent mixed. This compares to a negative 35 - 40 percent favorability June 23.

Kerry gets a 38 - 25 percent favorability, with 27 percent mixed and 9 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. This is up from 30 - 28 percent.

In an open-ended question, where voters can give any answer, 26 percent list terrorism/security as the most important problem facing the U.S., followed by 23 percent who list the war in Iraq and 18 percent who list the economy/jobs.

New Jersey voters pick Kerry as the best candidate to handle two of these issues, 48 - 41 percent on Iraq and 54 - 37 percent on the economy. Bush would do a better job handling terrorism, voters say 47 - 42 percent.

"In New Jersey, at least, Sen. Kerry is ahead in the commander-in-chief matchup. The Democrat is clearly viewed as the better candidate to handle the war, which voters list as one of the nation's most important problems," Richards said.

"Kerry probably will lose some of the post convention bounce in the coming months, but the President is going to have to improve his numbers to make the Garden State competitive."

From July 30 - August 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 996 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                    App     Dis     DK/NA


Aug 5, 2004 43 53 4 Jun 23, 2004 42 54 4 May 20, 2004 44 52 4 Mar 9, 2004 44 52 5 Nov 13, 2003 47 50 3 Sep 25, 2003 49 47 4 Jul 17, 2003 53 43 4 Jun 19, 2003 58 39 3 Apr 1, 2003 67 29 4 Jan 29, 2003 54 42 4 Dec 11, 2002 58 36 5 Oct 7, 2002 62 34 5 Sep 12, 2002 64 30 6 Aug 8, 2002 61 32 7 Jun 19, 2002 73 21 7 Apr 24, 2002 77 18 5 Mar 7, 2002 77 18 5 Jan 30, 2002 82 13 6 Oct 18, 2001 90 7 3 Sep 26, 2001 88 8 5 Aug 7, 2001 52 42 6 Jul 5, 2001 53 42 5 May 14, 2001 57 35 7 Apr 11, 2001 57 34 9 Mar 8, 2001 62 26 12 Feb 8, 2001 51 28 21



TREND: Suppose/If the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                    SMONE   WLDN'T 
                    JK      GWB     ELSE    VOTE   DK/NA


Aug 5, 2004 52 38 2 1 7 Jun 23, 2004 49 41 2 1 6 May 20, 2004 47 44 1 1 6 Nov 13, 2003 45 46 1 1 6 Sep 25, 2003 43 48 1 1 6 Jun 19, 2003 37 53 1 1 8



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote?

                                            SMONE   WLDN'T
                    JK      GWB     RN      ELSE    VOTE    DK/NA


Aug 5, 2004 49 36 6 1 2 6 Jun 23, 2004 46 40 7 - 1 6 May 20, 2004 46 43 5 1 1 5



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Approve 43% 83% 10% 45% 43% 42% 44% Disapprove 53 13 87 51 53 53 55 DK/NA 4 3 2 5 3 4 1

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 29% 41% 55% 44% 47% Disapprove 67 54 42 54 49 DK/NA 4 5 3 3 4



6. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


A lot 56% 61% 61% 50% 55% 56% 55% Some 29 27 26 35 29 29 29 Only a little 10 10 10 10 10 11 7 None at all 4 3 3 4 5 3 8 DK/NA - - - - 1 - -

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

A lot 60% 57% 54% 55% 52% Some 27 30 27 30 30 Only a little 6 10 14 10 13 None at all 6 3 5 2 5 DK/NA 1 - - 2 -



6a. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Kerry 52% 9% 90% 46% 50% 53% 52% Bush 38 85 3 40 39 37 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 7 4 5 9 6 9 8

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Kerry 71% 52% 34% 52% 48% Bush 21 38 56 33 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 5 7 9 10 6



7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Kerry 49% 10% 89% 40% 48% 50% 50% Bush 36 82 3 37 37 35 36 Nader 6 3 3 11 5 6 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 6 3 4 8 6 7 7

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Kerry 66% 50% 33% 46% 48% Bush 20 37 56 32 39 Nader 5 7 4 7 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 4 5 7 12 6



8. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Favorable 34% 80% 5% 31% 34% 34% 36% Unfavorable 43 6 73 42 41 45 41 Mixed 21 13 20 25 23 20 20 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 REFUSED - - - - 1 - -

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Favorable 25% 30% 51% 30% 37% Unfavorable 55 45 29 42 40 Mixed 18 22 19 23 22 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 1 4 - REFUSED - - - 1 -



9. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Favorable 38% 7% 67% 32% 34% 40% 38% Unfavorable 25 57 2 27 27 24 25 Mixed 27 27 23 32 28 27 30 Hvn't hrd enough 9 9 8 9 10 9 7 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 - -

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Favorable 46% 37% 27% 37% 41% Unfavorable 12 24 39 23 31 Mixed 30 29 24 30 22 Hvn't hrd enough 12 10 9 10 5 REFUSED - 1 1 - -



10. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Favorable 13% 7% 13% 19% 15% 12% 18% Unfavorable 30 30 34 27 34 26 26 Mixed 23 26 19 24 22 23 27 Hvn't hrd enough 32 36 33 28 26 38 30 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 3 1 -

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Favorable 12% 11% 12% 13% 20% Unfavorable 25 30 36 28 33 Mixed 22 24 24 26 16 Hvn't hrd enough 39 33 26 31 30 REFUSED 3 1 2 3 1



11. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Very satisfied 6% 16% 1% 4% 6% 6% 5% Smwht satisfied 37 60 24 36 41 34 38 Smwht dissatisfied 28 17 32 33 24 31 28 Very dissatisfied 28 6 42 26 29 27 28 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 - 2 1

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Very satisfied 1% 6% 12% 4% 7% Smwht satisfied 37 34 44 38 39 Smwht dissatisfied 21 28 33 29 29 Very dissatisfied 40 31 11 28 23 DK/NA 1 1 - 2 2



12. What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Terrorism general 26% 43% 19% 21% 28% 24% 25%

War 23% 14% 25% 28% 17% 28% 21%

Economy Total 18% 14% 21% 16% 17% 18% 20% Economy general 8 6 9 8 7 8 7 Unemployment/jobs 8 6 11 5 8 8 11 Cost of living 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Businesses leaving 1 1 - 2 1 1 1

Healthcare/Costs/ Insurance/HMO's 5% 3% 7% 4% 5% 5% 6%

Politicians Total 4% 2% 4% 5% 6% 3% 3% Politicians/ Campaigns general 2 1 2 2 3 1 - Political corruption 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 Bush administration 1 - 2 2 2 1 2

Foreign affairs/ policy general 3% 2% 4% 3% 4% 2% 3%

Crime Total 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% Crime general 1 1 1 - 1 1 - Drugs 1 - 1 1 1 - 1

Budget deficits 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Taxes general 1 2 - 1 1 1 - Poverty/Homelessness 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 Children's issues 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 Education general 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 Lack of ethics/ Morality 1 2 - 2 2 1 1 Lack of religion 1 - - 1 1 - 3 Abortion 1 1 - - - 1 - Priorities s/be at home, not abroad 1 - 2 1 1 1 2 Immigration 1 3 - 1 2 1 3

Other 4 2 3 6 5 3 3 DK/NA 2 3 2 1 1 3 1



13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Bush 37% 80% 7% 37% 37% 38% 37% Kerry 54 16 86 49 54 54 57 DK/NA 9 4 7 13 10 8 6



Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Bush 25% 36% 58% 33% 39% Kerry 64 55 38 57 51 DK/NA 11 9 5 10 10



14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Bush 41% 82% 7% 44% 41% 40% 44% Kerry 48 12 81 44 47 49 48 DK/NA 11 7 11 12 12 11 8



Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Bush 28% 42% 57% 33% 44% Kerry 60 48 29 51 51 DK/NA 12 10 14 16 5



15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Bush 47% 90% 14% 49% 50% 44% 53% Kerry 42 5 73 39 39 44 37 DK/NA 12 5 13 11 11 12 10

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Bush 38% 46% 58% 42% 51% Kerry 48 44 29 46 37 DK/NA 14 10 13 12 11



16. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Excellent 2% 4% - 2% 2% 2% 1% Good 40 70 22 38 47 35 43 Not so good 40 20 51 43 36 43 36 Poor 17 5 26 16 15 20 21 DK/NA 1 - - 1 - 1 -

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Excellent 1% 1% 2% - 4% Good 25 36 56 43 47 Not so good 42 42 34 40 39 Poor 32 19 7 18 8 DK/NA - 2 - - 1



17. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Right thing 40% 77% 16% 38% 41% 39% 41% Wrong thing 54 19 77 57 55 53 55 DK/NA 6 4 8 5 4 8 4

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Right thing 20% 41% 52% 40% 44% Wrong thing 70 53 43 54 50 DK/NA 10 6 4 6 6