January 31, 2003 - Unnamed Dem Candidate Edges Bush In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Lieberman Is Top Pick Of Dem Pack
One year before the New Hampshire primary, New Jersey voters say 45 - 43 percent, a statistical tie, that they would pick the Democratic Party's presidential candidate over Republican incumbent George W. Bush, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Republicans back President Bush 85 - 9 percent while Democrats back the unnamed candidate 85 - 11 percent. Independent voters go 43 - 40 percent for Bush, a statistical tie.

Men back Bush 50 - 37 percent, but women back the Democrat 52 - 38 percent. Union households back Bush 47 - 37 percent.

"It's not the best news for President Bush. But in a state where he lost badly last time, and where a Democrat often wins by 10 points, the Republican President is doing very well at this early stage. He's winning the independent vote and the union households - not a bad combination for winning in 2004," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

When looking for a possible presidential nominee, 32 percent of New Jersey Democrats pick Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, followed by:
  • Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry with 18 percent;
  • Rev. Al Sharpton with 12 percent;
  • Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt with 9 percent;
  • North Carolina Sen. John Edwards with 7 percent;
  • Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean with 4 percent.
Seventeen percent of Democrats are undecided.

"Until a challenger breaks out of the pack, Sen. Lieberman is going to be the Democrat to beat in New Jersey. But the time Sen. Kerry has spent in the state already is paying off and he could become that challenger," Richards said.

From January 22 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 929 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent. The survey includes 294 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and nationally as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582- 5201.

5. Now I'm going to name six Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all six names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean or the Reverend Al Sharpton?

                      Dem


Lieberman 32% Kerry 18 Gephardt 9 Edwards 7 Dean 4 Sharpton 12 DK/NA 17



6. If George W. Bush runs for re-election in 2004, in general are you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Bush 43% 85% 11% 43% 50% 38% 47% Democrat 45 9 85 40 37 52 37

OTHER(VOL) 2 2 - 3 3 2 3 DK/NA 9 5 5 14 10 9 12

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Bush 35% 45% 55% 29% 52% Democrat 55 45 33 54 38

OTHER(VOL) - 1 4 4 2 DK/NA 10 8 8 12 9