April 1, 2003 - New Jersey Voters Support War Almost 3 - 1, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Most Expect Significant U.S. Casualties
New Jersey voters support the U.S. war with Iraq 71 - 25 percent, and approve of the way President George W. Bush is handling the war 67 - 29 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Republicans support the war 87 - 10 percent, as Democrats support it 58 - 38 percent and independent voters support it 68 - 26 percent.

President Bush's overall approval also is 67 - 29 percent, up from a 54 - 42 percent approval in a January 29 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

By a 59 - 32 percent margin, New Jersey voters say there will be "a significant number of U.S. military casualties." And 56 percent expect the war to go on for "months," while 14 percent say "weeks" and 13 percent say "about a year."

"New Jersey voters are expressing their strong backing both for the war with Iraq and the way President Bush is handling it. The strong level of support for the war and the President in the Garden State is almost identical to support in national polls," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"In New Jersey, the war is backed strongly by Republicans and independents and even a narrow majority of Democrats back the conflict and the way Bush is handling it."

"In fact Democrats, who disapproved 68 - 26 percent of the overall job Bush was doing in the January 29 survey, are now split 47 - 48 percent," Richards added.

"At least two-thirds or more of voters in every region across the state are behind the war effort, except in urban Hudson and Essex Counties where support drops to 53 percent and opposition rises to 40 percent," Richards added.

"Strong support for the war comes despite fears by nearly six in 10 that there will be a significant number of U.S. military causalities, and concern by half that the war will last months, not just weeks. While a majority are concerned that in the short term the war will increase terrorism in the United States, a majority say long term terrorism will be decreased by going to war with Iraq.

The war with Iraq will increase the short-term risk of terrorism in the U.S., New Jersey voters say 53 - 35 percent. But the war will decrease terrorism in the long term, voters say 51 - 41 percent.

A total of 43 percent of New Jersey voters are "very worried" or "somewhat worried" about a terrorist attack in their community, with the greatest concern in North Jersey's urban areas and concern falling off in rural areas and at the shore.

The war is going as they expected, 63 percent of New Jersey voters say, and better than expected, 13 percent say, while 17 percent say worse than expected.

From March 25 - 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,059 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and nationally as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201

5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Approve 67% 93% 47% 61% 72% 62% 67% Disapprove 29 7 48 33 25 32 28 DK/NA 4 1 5 6 3 5 5

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 50% 65% 73% 67% 77% Disapprove 44 30 23 30 20 DK/NA 6 5 4 3 4



6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq and Saddam Hussein?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Approve 67% 88% 51% 62% 72% 63% 68% Disapprove 29 10 43 33 25 32 29 DK/NA 5 3 6 5 4 5 3

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 49% 67% 72% 67% 76% Disapprove 44 29 24 28 22 DK/NA 7 5 4 5 2



7. Do you support or oppose the United States having gone to war with Iraq?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Support 71% 87% 58% 68% 76% 65% 72% Oppose 25 10 38 26 19 30 23 DK/NA 5 3 5 6 4 5 5

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Support 53% 70% 75% 72% 80% Oppose 40 24 22 25 16 DK/NA 6 6 3 4 4



8. So far, would you say the war is going better than you expected for the United States, worse than you expected, or is the war going about the way you expected it to?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Better than expected 13% 16% 11% 12% 12% 14% 13% Worse than expected 17 9 25 18 14 19 15 The same as expected 63 69 58 62 67 60 67 DK/NA 7 5 6 8 7 7 5

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Better than expected 14% 11% 16% 12% 14% Worse than expected 23 20 12 15 12 The same as expected 53 62 69 66 66 DK/NA 9 7 3 7 8



9. How long do you think the war with Iraq will last - weeks, months, about a year, or longer than that?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Weeks 14% 20% 10% 13% 16% 12% 12% Months 56 60 57 54 55 57 60 About a year 13 11 15 13 13 14 12 Longer 7 2 9 11 7 7 7 DK/NA 9 7 10 10 9 10 8

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Weeks 17% 16% 12% 12% 11% Months 50 57 63 50 58 About a year 9 12 11 19 16 Longer 13 7 4 10 6 DK/NA 10 9 10 10 9



10. Do you think there will or will not be a significant number of U.S. military casualties in the war with Iraq?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Yes/Will be 59% 48% 69% 58% 55% 62% 59% No/Will not 32 44 23 30 36 27 33 DK/NA 10 8 8 12 8 11 8

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Yes/Will be 66% 59% 49% 58% 62% No/Will not 27 32 38 31 30 DK/NA 6 10 13 11 8



11. In the short term, do you think going to war with Iraq will increase or decrease the risk of further terrorism in the United States?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Increase 53% 44% 62% 54% 51% 55% 50% Decrease 35 45 27 33 36 33 39 DK/NA 12 11 11 13 12 12 10

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Increase 59% 54% 54% 55% 46% Decrease 33 34 36 34 36 DK/NA 8 12 10 11 18



12. In the long term, do you think going to war with Iraq will increase or decrease the risk of further terrorism in the United States?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Increase 41% 27% 55% 41% 35% 45% 43% Decrease 51 67 35 50 57 46 52 DK/NA 9 6 10 9 8 9 5

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Increase 53% 42% 38% 42% 29% Decrease 39 49 54 52 58 DK/NA 8 8 8 6 13



13. How worried are you about a terrorist attack in your community -- very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried or not worried at all?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Very worried 12% 9% 17% 12% 7% 17% 8% Smwht worried 31 26 35 33 25 37 35 Not too worried 30 32 30 27 30 29 27 Not worried at all 26 32 18 28 37 17 30 DK/NA - 1 - - - 1 -

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Very worried 23% 14% 4% 10% 8% Smwht worried 34 37 21 29 29 Not too worried 21 24 36 37 36 Not worried at all 21 24 37 24 27 DK/NA - - 1 - 1