June 19, 2003 - Bush Has Big Lead Over Dem Challengers In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Hillary Clinton Would Dominate Dem Pack
President George W. Bush's approval rating has dropped to 58 - 39 percent in New Jersey, but he still has a solid early lead over any of the possible Democratic challengers in the run for the White House, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

New Jersey voters gave President Bush a 67 - 29 percent approval in an April 1 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In a hypothetical look at the 2004 Presidential race in New Jersey:
  • Bush beats New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 54 - 38 percent;
  • Bush tops Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman 53 - 39 percent;
  • Bush beats Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry 53 - 37 percent.
In these matchups, Bush gets 23 - 25 percent of the Democratic voters and 52 - 54 percent of the important independent voters.

"While President Bush's approval has dropped to pre-war levels, he is still extremely popular for a Republican in New Jersey. He also benefits from voter rejection of the Democratic administration in Trenton, " said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Bush is running 14 to 16 points ahead of each of the leading Democratic candidates for President. The Democrat who gets the nomination is going to have a tough time winning New Jersey if the President's popularity holds up," Richards added.

"If Sen. Clinton sits this one out, Sen. Lieberman continues to lead the Democratic pack. But with only 26 percent of the vote, he cannot be considered a strong frontrunner in the crowded field. At this point it's too early to tell much about the Democratic field."

If Clinton runs, she gets 48 percent of the Democratic vote, followed by 14 percent for Lieberman, 11 percent for Kerry, 7 percent for Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt, with no other Democrat getting more than 3 percent.

With Clinton out of the race, Lieberman gets 26 percent, with 15 percent for Kerry, 13 percent for Gephardt, 8 percent for Rev. Al Sharpton and no other candidate above 6 percent. In this field, 21 percent of Democrats are undecided.

From June 11 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 815 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent. The survey includes 272 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 5.9 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and nationally as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as United States Senator?
                         App        Dis        DK/NA


June 18, 2003 44% 30% 26% April 2, 2003 46 29 25 January 29,2003 47 23 30 December 11,2002 47 22 30 September 12,2002 47 19 33 August 8, 2002 49 19 31 June 19,2002 46 18 36 April 24, 2002 48 20 32 March 6, 2002 51 20 29 January 30, 2002 51 15 33 October 18, 2001 51 19 29 August 7, 2001 50 21 29 July 5, 2001 48 22 30 May 14, 2001 49 20 31 April 11, 2001 46 21 33 March 8, 2001 43 21 36 February 8, 2001 35 18 47



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?

                         App        Dis        DK/NA


June 18, 2003 41% 34% 25% April 2, 2003 44 32 24 January 29, 2003 42 27 32 December 6, 2000 52 20 27 August 24, 2000 51 21 28 July 27, 2000 55 22 23 March 29, 2000 53 22 25 February 23, 2000 52 23 25 September 23, 1999 55 25 20 July 22, 1999 55 25 20 March 31, 1999 54 25 21 February 12, 1999 52 29 19 November 12, 1998 52 26 22 August 10, 1998 50 24 26 April 23, 1998 51 25 23 March 4, 1998 52 23 25 October 22, 1997 51 26 23 September 16, 1997 53 26 22 July 29, 1997 50 25 26 April 10, 1997 52 25 23 February 8, 1996 43 32 26



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                         App        Dis        DK/NA


June 19, 2003 58 39 3 April 1, 2003 67 29 4 January 29 2003 54 42 4 December 11,2002 58 36 5 September 12,2002 64 30 6 August 8, 2002 61 32 7 June 19,2002 73 21 7 April 24, 2002 77 18 5 March 7, 2002 77 18 5 January 30, 2002 82 13 6 October 18, 2001 90 7 3 September 26, 2001 88 8 5 August 7, 2001 52 42 6 July 5, 2001 53 42 5 May 14, 2001 57 35 7 April 11, 2001 57 34 9 March 8, 2001 62 26 12 February 8, 2001 51 28 21



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Approve 44% 27% 61% 41% 45% 43% 44% Disapprove 30 46 17 32 35 25 30 DK/NA 26 27 22 26 20 31 26

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 54% 43% 37% 38% 49% Disapprove 24 34 29 31 27 DK/NA 22 23 33 31 24



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Approve 41% 25% 57% 41% 38% 44% 52% Disapprove 34 53 18 34 41 28 24 DK/NA 25 22 25 26 22 28 24

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 54% 35% 36% 43% 42% Disapprove 25 42 32 27 35 DK/NA 21 22 32 30 23



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Approve 58% 91% 34% 54% 61% 55% 54% Disapprove 39 8 63 41 36 42 41 DK/NA 3 1 3 4 3 4 6

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 51% 55% 68% 54% 64% Disapprove 47 42 28 41 32 DK/NA 2 3 4 5 4



7. Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, or Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich.
                        
                      Dem 


Lieberman 26% Kerry 15 Gephardt 13 Edwards 3 Dean 6 Sharpton 8 Graham 3 Moseley-Braun 5 Kucinich - DK/NA 21



8. Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004? -- New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, or Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich.
                          
                      Dem 


Clinton 48% Lieberman 14 Kerry 11 Gephardt 7 Edwards 3 Dean 3 Sharpton 3 Graham 2 Moseley-Braun 1 Kucinich 1 DK/NA 7



9. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were -- Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Clinton 38% 3% 68% 36% 31% 43% 37% Bush 54 95 23 52 60 49 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 4 3 2 5 DK/NA 4 1 4 5 4 4 7

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Clinton 47% 34% 29% 46% 35% Bush 49 56 66 46 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 2 2 0 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 6 DK/NA 2 7 2 4 3



10. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were -- Joe Lieberman the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Lieberman 39% 5% 69% 35% 36% 41% 43% Bush 53 91 24 54 58 49 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 1 3 DK/NA 5 3 4 6 4 7 9

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Lieberman 50% 36% 29% 41% 39% Bush 42 54 67 49 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 - 2 1 DK/NA 6 7 3 7 3



11. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were -- John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Kerry 37% 5% 64% 36% 34% 39% 39% Bush 53 91 25 52 57 49 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 - 2 - DK/NA 8 4 9 9 8 9 15

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Kerry 47% 35% 24% 42% 36% Bush 45 54 66 46 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 DK/NA 7 9 10 8 7



12. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were -- Dick Gephardt the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Gephardt 38% 5% 65% 38% 36% 40% 44% Bush 53 91 24 53 57 48 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 6 4 6 6 5 8 12

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Gephardt 47% 36% 27% 44% 38% Bush 46 52 67 47 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 2 2 DK/NA 4 9 5 6 5